Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 241717
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1217 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETED THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS TEMPS TO START MONDAY OFF FALL TO THE LOWER 50S. AREAS NEAR THE
KS AND NE BORDER MAY ALSO FALL TO THE UPPER 40S. QUIET WEATHER IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SFC RIDGE MEANDERS IN THE AREA, KEEPING
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE MAY
HAVE BEEN A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL WITH THIS AIRMASS FROM YESTERDAY
SO HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE LOWER 80S,
GIVEN THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT ARE ALSO A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS A RESULT WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS OVER EASTERN KS. THINK THAT THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL OFFSET ANY WEAK LIFT FROM MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TREND WARMER AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE. ALTHOUGH
THE WARM UP SHOULD ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
KEEPS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS HELPING TO OFFSET THE
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S, WITH EXTREME NORTHEAST KS A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER AND CENTRAL KS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO HELP LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING STAY
IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE COULD BE SOME
ELEVATED STORMS FORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, AND
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP BEFORE 12Z. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MODELS SEEM TO BE IN CONSENSUS THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL
CREST THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. SO WITH MODELS
SHOWING INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FORCING,
HAVE CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAVE IS PROGGED TO BE PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WANTS TO KEEP SOME ENERGY
OVER MO FRIDAY NIGHT SO THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE TO LOW A CHANCE TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH FRIDAY AND HAVE
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90 BY
SUNDAY. LOWS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS UNDER 10 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 00Z.
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP AT TOP FOR MVFR VSBYS IN THE 12Z-13Z TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...WOLTERS
AVIATION...53



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