


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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991 FXUS63 KTOP 061706 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms possible again today mainly along and south of I-35 - An unsettled pattern will remain in place through next week with near average temps and several chances for thunderstorms && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A shortwave trough was located across northwest MO into eastern KS with an associated cold front drifting southward across northeast KS this morning. Weak convergence along the 925-850mb boundary was acting to keep widely scattered t-storms ongoing this morning. That activity should continue to shift southward with the boundaries this morning and by afternoon the sfc front should be located closer to I-35 where re-development of scattered storms should occur. Weak shear and modest mid-level lapse rates should once again limit any organized severe wx risk today. Tonight...organized forcing for storms will remain focused across the high plains where an MCS should develop and move south. 850mb winds are weak across this part of the state and any precip chcs across central KS would be with a weakening system late tonight so low precip chcs were kept there. Monday-Tues...Expect more scattered diurnal storms Monday as the weak boundary remains in the area. There`s a better chance for nighttime storms to move south out of NE Monday night into Tues and impact at least parts of the area within northwest flow aloft. Whatever occurs Tuesday morning could impact how any redevelopment of storms would play out Tues afternoon so confidence in organized severe weather is low at this time despite the marginal risk from SPC. There may be a break Weds before a stronger system approaches for the end of the week and that system may bring another risk for severe weather by Thu or Fri. All in all an active pattern will continue for July. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail most if not the entire period. Could be a couple hours of mostly ground fog across low lying areas around sunrise. Best chances for patchy fog remain generally southeast of the terminals. A light easterly breeze remains through the end of the period with chances for showers or a storm too small to mention with best chances again southeast of the terminals. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Omitt AVIATION...Drake