567
FXUS63 KTOP 150518
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1218 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night through the weekend.

- Afternoon heat indices around 105 Wednesday and perhaps this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Dry and warm conditions will continue through tomorrow evening
with weak flow throughout all levels of the atmosphere as an
upper-level trough departs to the east and weak riding builds
to the west. By Tuesday night, southerly moist flow and some
warm-air advection ahead of an approaching weak trough may be
enough to spark some isolated showers or thunderstorms across
far eastern Kansas. Additionally, CAMs are depicting an MCS
moving across southern Nebraska during the overnight hours.
This complex of storms may push far enough south to impact far
northern Kansas. Gusty wind and heavy rain would be the main
threat with this complex. A weak front will be in the area
Wednesday into Friday. This will be the focus for several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms. Several models are showing a well
mixed boundary layer with over 2,500 J/Kg of ML CAPE and a mid-
level wave moving by Wednesday afternoon. This could lead to
some strong to severe storms across portions of central and
eastern Kansas, depending on the timing of the wave and how far
south the front pushes. Large hail and damaging wind would be
the main severe threats with afternoon/evening storms.
Additionally, with a very moist airmass in place and the
potential for training storms, very heavy rainfall and flooding
could become a concern. This front is forecast to wash out by
Friday and may lift as a warm front into Nebraska and Iowa by
Saturday. With westerly flow aloft and ample low-level moisture
in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast through the weekend, but at this time, nothing more
than scattered coverage is favored. Without a strong push of
cooler or more dry air we will remain hot and humid through the
week and into the weekend with highs in the 90s and heat
indicies around 105 Wednesday and perhaps again this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions and modest south winds will continue
through the period, with winds strongest during the afternoon up to
around 10 kts. Complex of weakening thunderstorms may be approaching
north-central KS by 6z tomorrow evening, but should stay northwest
of KMHK until after then.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Reese