Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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661
FXUS63 KTOP 180923
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

High pressure was centered over Missouri and extended westward into
eastern Kansas. South to southwest winds have developed across north
central Kansas on the back side of the high at 09Z where
temperatures have slowly risen over the past couple of hours. Patchy
fog has developed across northeast and east central Kansas with
visibilities generally around a mile or higher. Expect the fog to
potentially hang around through 9 AM then dissipate. High clouds
will continue to stream northward today as an upper level low moves
northeastward into western and central Kansas. High temperatures
today will warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Tonight with the approach of the upper trough and associated energy
rotating around it expect to see an increase in low level moisture
with southerly winds increasing in the 950mb-850mb layer. Soundings
show widespread clouds across much of the area after 09Z. Southeast
of I-35 model soundings show potential for some drizzle and have
added it after 09Z. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid to
upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

By Thursday and Friday, models show a closed mid-level low tracking
northeastward over the CWA. With several model soundings showing
some low-level moisture and lift present from this passing wave,
some areas of drizzle and patchy fog will be possible through
Friday, primarily across north central to northeast Kansas.  While
these areas of drizzle and low clouds will keep temperatures cooler
in the upper 40s/low 50s Thursday and Friday across north central to
northeast KS, expect more mild conditions across far east central KS
where high temperatures may reach into the mid/upper 50s.

Conditions will dry out Friday night and Saturday as the mid-level
wave lifts to the northeast and before the next wave advances into
the area. Models show a mid-level trough over the southwestern U.S.
on Saturday, with this wave progressing due-east across Arkansas and
Texas Saturday night into Sunday. Latest model runs are tracking a
bit further south with this second wave and, as a result, the wrap-
around precipitation may only clip far east central KS late Saturday
night into Sunday. As a result, have trimmed back the coverage of
PoPs a bit.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected by early next week as
surface high pressure shifts into the central U.S.  However,
conditions will still be unseasonably mild with highs in the mid 40s
to low 50s and low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. This
surface high pressure will quickly be pushed eastward as another mid-
level trough advances into the area on Tuesday/Tuesday night.  With
overnight temperatures near or below freezing, scattered
precipitation could transition between rain and snow on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Patchy fog will develop at or near the terminals through 10Z as
skies remain clear and winds will be calm. An area of high clouds
will move north across the terminals after 10Z, which should
decrease the patchy dense fog development. KTOP and KMHK should
see the lowest visibilities with less than 1 mile at KMHK and
down to 1/4-1/2 mile at times at KTOP. After 14Z, expect VFR
conditions.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan



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