590
FXUS63 KTOP 110734
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
234 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase through the day Sunday into the 70 to 90
  percent range by the evening.

- Showers may be more hit or miss in the morning and early
  afternoon Sunday.

- Another system expected to bring chances for showers and
  storms Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

07Z water vapor imagery showed a closed low still over the
southwestern U.S. while a shortwave trough dug southeast through
the Great Lakes. Surface obs continued to show high pressure
over the central and southern plains with the higher dewpoint
temps along the gulf coast.

There remains good agreement among the operational models for the
low out west to phase in with the mean westerlies and propagate
across the plains. The better forcing with this wave looks to move
across the forecast area late in the afternoon Sunday and Sunday
night. So this is when the forecast has categorical POPs. Models
still show dewpoints increasing into the middle 50s and around 60 by
Sunday afternoon. This should lead to some modest CAPE between 500
and 1000 J/kg. And bulk shear is progged to be relatively week
between 15KT and 30KT. So organized severe weather remains low, or
less than 5 percent. Depending on how much sun there is, it is not
out of the question for some pockets of the higher instability and
perhaps some strong storms. Think activity during the morning and
early afternoon may be more hit and miss since there doesn`t appear
to be a strong focus or boundary for precip to develop around. POPs
remain high through Monday as the upper wave passes overhead.
Forcing for vertical motion is expected to pass to the east of the
forecast area Monday evening which should bring an end to the
precip.

The next mid and upper level wave is on track to move through the
central plains Wednesday and Thursday. The overall idea from the
deterministic solutions is similar but there continues to be
differences in the strength of the system and the NBM shows higher
spread in the potential outcome by Thursday. Because of this
continued uncertainty, POPs remain in the 30 to 50 percent range.
And the GFS forecasts of CAPE and bulk shear remain rather marginal
for an organized severe risk. Temps through the extended look to be
mainly driven by insolation and/or cloud cover since there is no
strong signal of temperature advection. In general highs look to
remain in the 70s to lower 80s with cooler temps forecast when
clouds and rain are probable.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Low level moisture return holds off until after the forecast
period. So VFR conditions with increasing high clouds late in
the period are expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters