019
FXUS63 KTOP 021727
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm with increasing humidity into the holiday
  weekend.

- Chances for storms return for the 4th of July and linger into early
  next week. Highest chances (35-55%) come Friday evening into
  early Saturday and again Saturday evening into early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Early this morning an MCV was moving across eastern Nebraska.
Its current track, model guidance, and the lack of any
instability over our area all indicate it will weaken and remain
north and east of our area this morning.

A slightly warmer and more humid couple of days are ahead as
more moist southerly flow returns. Thursday, a lee trough begins
to develop to our west as the upper-level ridge moves overhead.
The ridge slowly gets shunted off to our south and east as the
trough deepens on Friday. Models are in good agreement with
showers and thunderstorms developing over central and eastern
Kansas Friday evening as an upper-level wave ejects into the
central Plains. Shear is favored to be nearly non-existent, but
with several thousand joules of CAPE and pwats near the max
expected for this time of the year, very heavy rain (rain rates
over two inches an hour) and some downburst winds would be
possible in stronger storms that develop. This wave exits
Saturday morning, but another one moves in quickly by Saturday
evening, bringing another chance of thunderstorms to the area.
There will be daily chances for storms through early next week
with quasi zonal flow aloft and southerly, moist flow at the
surface in place. Summer temperatures and humidity will likely
hold on through next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions continue. Some diurnal cu has started to show up
on satellite. Otherwise, expect southerly winds just under 10
kts to become lighter through this evening and overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Picha