000
FXUS63 KTOP 281937
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
237 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

This afternoon, the prominent upper level low was located over
northern Illinois/Indiana and is expected to continue drifting south
through tomorrow.  A back door front that moved across northeast
Kansas early this morning has aided in the cool temperatures today
as north northeasterly flow continues over the area.  High
temperatures today have been lowered slightly with very northeast
Kansas topping out in the high 60s.  Status located in Iowa has been
slowly moving south today, but it looks like the deck will stay east
of the area with only few to scattered clouds expected overnight.
Cooling overnight will bring lows into the mid and upper 40s.
Similar day tomorrow as today with dry conditions and cool
temperatures expected as the upper level ridge to the west begins to
move into western Kansas.  Highs Thursday will be near 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper ridging dominates much of the region through the week as the
closed low remains nearly stationary over the Midwest. May see some
remnant high clouds from precipitation towards Missouri, otherwise
should expect highs in the lower to middle 70s and light winds
through Saturday. Morning lows gradually increase with the afternoon
temps from the upper 40s Friday morning to near 60 degrees on
Tuesday. Will continue to monitor the next system to impact the area
by late Saturday evening, possibly Sunday as a weak embedded wave
ejects from the upper trough axis digging south over the Pacific
Northwest. Have mentioned slight chances for thunder through Monday
for north central areas, however mid level lapse rates are generally
weak and confidence is low for any precipitation until Tuesday as
the main system lifts out into the Central Plains. The latest runs
of the ECMWF are more progressive with the system quickly pushing
north by Wednesday, while the GFS continues it slower progression
and therefore prolonged chances for rain after Tuesday. A blend of
the two with previous versions was the best compromise at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR is expected for the majority of the period, although there is
a chance for some BR/FG early morning primarily at TOP/FOE. The
RAP has been persistent with stratus, but has been the only model
to do so. Expect skies to be mostly clear which would allow for
some patchy fog formation but right now confidence is not high
enough to include in this TAF issuance.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Heller