000
FXUS63 KTOP 221131
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
631 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

At 09Z WV imagery shows upper trof pivoting through the area pushing
along surface cold boundary through north central and northeast
Kansas at this hour.  LLJ is in the process of veering to the east
of the area providing convergence for showers and storms with very
heavy rainfall (common amounts of 2-4 inches in some areas) over
very southern and southeastern portions of the area into west
central Missouri. Cold boundary is ushering in a very much needed
dry airmass shunting modified tropical airmass to the east and
southeast of the area.  A narrow band of low level stratus will move
in behind the front but shouldn`t be long lasting as clearing will
take place quickly into the morning on Tuesday over the region as
high pressure settles into the area.  Lingering showers in
southeastern portions of the CWA should exit completely after mid
morning time frame.

Northwest flow regime aloft will take hold with modified Canadian
airmass cooling high temps Tuesday and Wednesday into the low to mid
80s.  With dry dewpoints, low temps on Tuesday night could dip into
the mid 50s especially near the KS/NE border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The long term forecast features northwest flow with mid level ridge
in place and main Westerly energy well north of the area.  A few
minor embedded waves could help upslope flow induced storms on the
foothills of the Rockies move off into the High Plains into central
portions of KS/NE.  Most long range guidance at this time keeps
weaker flow aloft in place and instability well west of the area.
Therefore, only small chance POPs are in the forecast and mainly for
western portions of the CWA Friday and Saturday time frames perhaps
carrying into Sunday.

Overall, temps for the period will be slightly below normal in the
low to mid 80s and lows near normal in the low to mid 60s.  An
overall dry pattern will still be welcome in light of recent
rainfalls.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Stratus at MVFR/IFR interface is a bit more widespread than models
suggest and will keep a mention of a lower cig for a few hours.
VFR conditions then anticipated for the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ024-026-
038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...65