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000
FXUS63 KTOP 181734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A
DIFFUSE LOOSELY PACKED GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS. THE RESULT IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONUS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS A WEAK MCS MOVING E-SE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS MCS IS A WEAKENING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ATMOSPHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY
LITTLE SHEAR EXPECT THE TREND TO THIS MCS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. GIVEN DECENT MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH SOME
PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMMENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PERHAPS KICKING OF A ROUND OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITHOUT ANY REAL EASTWARD ADVECTION UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW AND FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY NIGHT
FEEL THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

JL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A DOWN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL OCCUR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEAST ACROSS NE...SD...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IA AND PORTIONS OF MO.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 80S BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY UNDER THE BROAD H5
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT...THEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR PREVAILS AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE EAST AFT 21Z. MENTIONED VCTS AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING SITES AFT 21Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE AREA AFT 01Z AT KMHK AND 02Z AT KTOP/KFOE. TOO FAR OUT TO
MENTION HOWEVER THERE IS LOW END CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF
KMHK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REVIEW AT NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...BOWEN