Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 291115
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
615 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE
AREAS OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
CANADA.  A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
STATE...WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY NEUTRAL
THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX TO A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IT MAY FEEL
JUST AS WARM.  HIGH SMOKE PLUMES ALSO LIKELY TO HELP SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF HIGHS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD ALSO HELP
MAKE FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. HIGHS FORECAST FROM UPPER 80S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THAT LOWS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SURFACE WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WAA STARTS TO
MOVE TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR THE COMING DAYS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AS CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN NE. A WEAK WARM FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THIS MID/UPPER WAVE
TRACKS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY, WHICH PLACES DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN IA OR MO AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAR EASTERN KS TO BE
CLIPPED BY THE MCS OR NEAR THE DEVELOPMENT BEING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER WAVE.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY, BUT THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. LATE WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER MID/UPPER WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MOVES OVER
THE SAME AREA LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER MCS IN MO. AFTER THAT FRONT
DIVES SOUTH THE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MORE MID/UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TODAY
SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...67



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