Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 282127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
527 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
AND MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...AND WARM BUT DRY FOR
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS OF 520 PM EDT...TWO BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ON BOTH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR...THE FIRST NOW SINKING SOUTH OF
DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD CO...A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...AND THE
SECOND EXTENDING FROM SW BERKSHIRE CO INTO NORTHERN ULSTER CO IS
THE COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS TIED TO THE
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH SOME TOWERING CU ARE NOTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. IN FACT...GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30-35
MPH RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
WE EXPECT THESE GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 8 OR 9 PM
THEN SHOULD DIMINISH.

ALSO...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH EVEN SOME 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE CLOUDS WERE MORE PREVALENT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS
DECREASE...WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE THEREFORE HAVE WENT A LITTLE
BELOW THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH MOST TEMPS FROM I-90 NORTH FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY
AND WARM CONDITIONS...AFTER AN INITIAL COOL START. HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW...SO IT SHOULD BE QUITE COMFORTABLE. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS ARRIVE IN NW AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK SAT...WHILE THE MAJORITY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...WITH JUST
SOME CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND. EXPECT MILD TEMPS...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS...PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER CLOSE TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

SAT-SUN...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
APPROACHING/PASSING FRONT FROM THE N AND W...WITH SOME SUGGESTION
OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR LATE SAT...AND MORE SO FOR SAT
NT AND EARLY SUN...BEFORE TAPERING FROM N TO S LATER SUN. AS FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SAT NT...AT TIME OF MINIMAL HEATING. ALSO...0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OR LESS. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ALSO NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY IN
THE 5.5-6 C/KM RANGE. THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC HEATING IS ALSO IN
QUESTION SAT AFTERNOON...AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION LIMITING HEATING...ESP FOR AREAS N OF I-90. AT THIS
TIME...PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT DURING THIS TIME COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD ANY TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP LATE SAT
OR SAT NT. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S
SAT AFTN...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE OCCUR THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE TRICKIEST TEMPS WILL BE SUNDAY...AS
SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IF
CLOUDS AND ESPECIALLY RAIN PERSIST...MAX TEMPS MAY BE QUITE
LIMITED...PERHAPS BARELY RISING OUT OF THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAXES...IN THE 65-70 RANGE IN VALLEYS AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IN CASE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF AND ANY THIN SPOTS
IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...OR THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN A BIT ALLOWING FOR
WARMER MORNING TEMPS BEFORE FROPA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
IF THE SFC BOUNDARY PASSES AND RAINFALL LINGERS IN ITS
WAKE...MUCH COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A DRY PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE DAILY...WITH HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
70S.  BY THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
NORMAL HIGHS AT ALBANY ARE IN THE MID 70S.  LOWS WILL BECOME ONLY
SLIGHTLY MILDER DAILY...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AT ALL
LOCATIONS.  NORMAL LOWS AT ALBANY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS TRACKED EAST OF KGFL AND KALB...AND SHOULD TRACK EAST
OF KPSF AND KPOU BEFORE 21Z. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN KALB AND KPSF THAT COULD AFFECT
KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 19Z. INDICATING VCSH/VCTS UNTIL AROUND 20Z-21Z.
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR KPOU...AND
INCLUDING VCSH THERE...WITH THE OPTION TO AMEND LATER IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 21Z AT ALL TAF
SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...UNTIL AFTER 06Z-07Z WHEN SOME FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES. TOO FAR OUT TO BE
SPECIFIC...SO INDICATING MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW
500 FEET...BUT KGFL AND KPSF COULD SEE BROKEN CEILINGS DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TOWARD SUNRISE. BY 14Z...ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MIX OUT AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN...THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KALB AND KGFL...AND WILL SHIFT TO
WEST AT KPSF AND KPOU BY 21Z. WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES.  WINDS DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND REMAIN VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS AFTER DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL AMTS GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT FOR
FRI AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT
INTO SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS OF 1-2 INCHES OCCURRED...ESP FROM SCHENECTADY CO INTO CENTRAL
SARATOGA CO AND SE WARREN/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NT.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE
HALF...TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES BETWEEN SAT AND SUN. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS...ESP SHOULD ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
REPEATEDLY OCCUR IN ANY LOCATION.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.