Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 310212
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1012 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are
forecast for tonight into Monday. Unsettled weather may linger
into Tuesday before fair weather returns for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM EDT, areas of light to moderate rain continue for
areas mainly south of I-90 in NY, then extending north into
SW VT. Additional bands of moderate to heavy rain are redeveloping
across eastern PA, and heading north/northeast.

The old dew point boundary likely enhanced some of the convection
in NW CT and central/western MA earlier this evening. The areas
of moderate to heavy rain across eastern PA may drift toward the
eastern Catskills again later tonight. There could be some back
building later tonight when a small low level jet segment
develops pushing into the eastern Catskills but that will be
watched. If there is no back building due to a low level jet, then
rain could move out sooner than currently forecasted and there
could be a break in the rainfall Sunday morning through and after
daybreak, but we will see.

Steering flow is west to west southwest, so the northern edge of
the better coverage of rain, which is just south of the Mohawk
Valley could push just north of the Mohawk Valley and perhaps
just into southern VT through the night once the low level jet
segment forms. There is some clearing to the north and lower
surface dew points, so there could be a sharp edge to the northern
boundary of the rain tonight. There could also be some noticeable
differences in low temperatures tonight depending on what areas
see some thinning or breaks in the clouds to the north.

So, again, the greater coverage of the rain should be in
southern areas but still any measurable rain from the Mohawk
Valley south tonight will help begin to alleviate the dry
conditions we have had so far this summer.

Lows in the 60s to near 70 but some upper 50s to lower 60s in some
northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is a diffuse back edge of this current area of rain and
thunderstorms in central PA/NY with another area of rain and
thunderstorms developing in the Great Lakes and OH valley. Sources
of guidance do not necessarily have this well resolved but there
is a loose consensus in guidance, also supported by some mesoscale
models, that there could be a lull or decrease in coverage of rain
Sunday morning as the one area exits east into and through New
England. The low level jet segment is forecasted to weaken,
decreasing the low level forcing a bit. There will will be upper
dynamics and lots of moisture to support decent coverage of rain,
though.

There may be some thin areas in the clouds in some areas Sunday
morning and a small rise in temperatures that would result in just
a little instability and support increased coverage and
development of rain and scattered thunderstorms associated with
the upper energy currently in the Great Lakes and OH Valley that
will be over our area Sunday. So, indicating chances in the
morning increasing to likely in the afternoon. Light northeast to
east winds, clouds and increasing coverage of rain will keep high
temperatures down into the 70s to near 80.

Beyond Sunday afternoon, very uncertain in terms of timing and
coverage of rain but upper dynamics will be slow to move east and
lots of moisture still in place. Indicating a slow and gradual
decrease in coverage of rain Sunday night through Monday, with
most of the rain ending by late Monday night. There should be
increasing sunshine Tuesday with cooling boundary layer
temperatures.

Highs Monday with the clouds and rain in the 70s to lower 80s.
Highs Tuesday in the 70s with again some cooler and dryer
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The period starts out Tuesday night with an upper level trough
shifting off the New England coast. For now, will indicate mainly
dry conditions Tuesday night, but will have to watch closely as some
showers may linger at least into the evening hours across eastern
areas if the trough is just a little slower in departing and/or any
subtle disturbance tracks south on its western periphery.

Dry conditions with warming temperatures expected from Wednesday
through Thursday, as upper level heights rise with surface high
pressure gradually shifting from directly over the region on
Wednesday, to the southern New England coast by Thursday.

The 12Z/30 ECMWF is more pronounced with an upper level ridge
persisting into Friday, while the 12Z/30 GFS is showing flatter flow
aloft with a faster cold front approaching late Friday. The ECMWF
delays the cold front until Friday night or Saturday given the
strength of the ridge. Will side with the slower the ECMWF for now
and mention only mainly chance pops for late Friday, with high
chance pops across much of the area Friday night, then decreasing
from NW to SE during Saturday.

As for temperatures, Wednesday highs should range from the mid 70s
across higher elevations, to the lower 80s in valley areas. Warmer
for Thursday and Friday, with highs reaching the mid/upper 80s in
valleys and lower 80s across higher elevations. If the front and
associated clouds/showers are delayed Friday, highs could be even
hotter, perhaps reaching the lower/mid 90s in some valley areas. It
will also turn more humid by Friday. Cooler temperatures for
Saturday, with highs ranging from the mid 70s across northern areas,
to the lower 80s across valley areas.

Overnight lows will be cool for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning,
with mostly 50s to lower 60s. Slightly warmer for Wednesday
night/Thursday morning, with lower/mid 60s in valleys, and 55-60
across higher terrain. Warmer temperatures for both Wed and Thu
night, with lows mainly in the 60s, although some valley areas may
barely drop below 70 due to higher humidity levels and some clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northern edge of steadier rain expected to get to KALB and KPSF
later tonight, while steadier rain occurs at KPOU through tonight.
KGFL may see only scattered showers through Sunday morning.
Keeping the idea of VCSH at KALB and KPSF through 08Z-10Z then
steadier rain and MVFR conditions through 13Z-14Z. Steadier rain
and borderline MVFR/IFR conditions after 13Z-14Z. Steadier rain at
KGFL starts around 12Z with MVFR conditions then lowering to
borderline MVFR/IFR after 15z. MVFR/IFR conditions with periods of
rain through Sunday afternoon at all TAF sites.

Winds forecast to be light from the north to east through the
period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are
forecast for tonight into Monday. Unsettled weather may linger
into Tuesday before fair weather returns for Wednesday.

A rainy period of weather is expected tonight through Monday with
RH values well above 30 percent.

Winds will be north to east at 15 mph or less tonight through
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of the area is
considered abnormally dry (category D0), and parts of the
Catskills and western New England are within a moderate drought
(category D1).

The next chance of widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms
arrives tonight and lasting into early next week. The Weather
prediction Center has put all the Albany Forecast Area in a slight
risk of exceeding rainfall needed to begin flash flooding on
Sunday. Rainfall amounts in many areas could range between an inch
and two and a half inches through Monday night with local amounts
possibly up to 3 inches. Due to recent dryness, we do not
anticipate widespread flooding at this time. Locally heavy
rainfall could produce some urban flooding and ponding of water on
roadways and some standing of water in low lying areas.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



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