Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240749
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
349 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled period of weather for the start of the week with
periods of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as low pressure
tracks across the region. By the mid week period, tranquil and
more seasonable weather for July. The next chance for wet
weather arrives Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 AM EDT...Rather potent short wave trough axis was
approaching from the Ohio Valley. This is resulting in an
impressive area of diffluence aloft, per the hourly mesoscale
SPC windows, that will continue to spread northeastward.
Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary was aligned
across northern PA into northern NJ which is good division line
from the warm and near tropical air mass with dewpoints into
the 70s south of the boundary and 50s just to the north and east
of Albany. Expectations are for this morning for the rainfall to
overspread the area from southwest to northeast. Portions of the
Catskills with a southeast flow for the next several hours could
see enhanced rainfall rates. That is if the deeper convection
developing across southeast PA into southern NJ does not disrupt
moisture transport into our region. So no flood headlines for
the region at this time. As this aforementioned upstream wave
transverses and clears the region by early this afternoon, we
are left with a cyclonic flow and approach of the upper low
across the upper Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes
region. A narrow corridor of instability is expected to develop
along and just east of I81. Hi-res reflectivity short-term
models point toward a sct-bkn line of convection to develop and
approach western areas later this afternoon. So we will keep
PoPs a bit high across most of the region to account for this
convective activity to impact the region.

As extensive cloud coverage will be in place along with an
easterly wind component at the surface, will be rather chilly as
latest LAMP/LAV guidance suggests high temperatures may occur
this morning with nearly steady values through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight through Tuesday, upper low will transverse eastern NY
into western NE where we will keep unsettled conditions into the
region. This will keep CHC-SCT PoPs across the entire region
with overall coverage of showers expected overnight Monday into
Tuesday morning as cold pool and differential vorticity
advection will be maximized. Now, timing of this wave is in good
agreement with the passage of the wave through the afternoon
hours. As subsidence increases, this should suppress additional
shower development during the mid and late afternoon hours.
Clouds may begin to break across the northern portions of the
region late in the day but overall a mostly cloudy day. With
these clouds, still expect temperatures to average below normal
as highs mainly into the 60s and overnight lows into the 50s and
lower 60s.

Tuesday night, ridge begins to build across the region. However,
moisture may become trapped below the subsidence inversion as we
will keep partly cloudy sky forecast for now. There could be
some patchy fog where skies do allow for some clearing along
with light winds as ground will likely remain moist.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather looks to return to the region for the late week
period, as a frontal system and associated upper level trough moves
towards the area from the Great Lakes.

Wednesday and Wednesday night should be mainly dry as a surface high
gradually moves through the region. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms look to increase for Thursday into Thursday night, as
a surface low develops just south of the Great Lakes along a cold
frontal boundary as it approaches from the northwest. With a humid
air mass in place ahead of the approaching boundary, some
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Thursday afternoon
into Thursday evening. Lows on Wed & Thurs night will mainly be in
the 60s with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 for Thursday.

The models are still in disagreement on the strength and track of
the surface low but it looks like showers could linger through
Friday evening as the surface low tracks through or near our area.
The surface low and associated showers look to exit late Friday
night, allowing for a dry but cool start to the weekend. Daytime
temps will generally be in the 70s and overnight lows will be in the
60s, along with a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A storm system over the Great Lakes will impact the region
today, bringing widespread rainfall to the region.

Rainfall is beginning to overspread the region early this
morning and will continue to do so for the next several hours.
Conditions are currently MVFR/VFR across the area but are
expected to deteriorate as steadier rainfall moves over the TAF
sites from southwest to northeast. Some embedded thunder is also
possible at this time. Pockets of heavier rainfall could reduce
VIS down to IFR or below at times through mid morning.

The steadiest rainfall showers will start to taper off by late
morning, but additional on and off light rain showers can be
expected through the remainder of the day. With plenty of
lingering low-level moisture trapped under an inversion, expect
MVFR (potentially VFR at KALB) conditions for cigs to continue
through the rest of the day, although some improvement in
visibility is expected. E-NE winds will generally be 5-10 kts,
although some higher gusts are possible for KPSF later this
afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The area will receive a widespread rainfall through today with
chances for showers lingering through Tuesday as a low pressure
system approaches and gradually moves across the region. No fire
weather related concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Period of rainfall will transverse the region as expecting QPF
amounts from 1 to 1 1/2 inches. Some locally heavy rainfall may
occur especially for areas west of the Hudson River Valley and
south of the Capital Region. Ponding of water on roadways would
occur with the heavier rainfall along with some minor flooding
of poor drainage and low lying areas possible. We will watch for
Catskills enhancement as southeast winds are expected to be in
place through this morning.

Fair weather is expected for the mid week with more chances for
rainfall Thursday and Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis/JVM
AVIATION...JVM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



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