Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 180023
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
723 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system moving towards the region from the Great
Lakes will bring a wintry mix overnight, with the greatest
impacts across the higher elevations. As the storm moves away
from the area, there may be a few lingering rain or snow showers
on Wednesday, especially in the morning hours. Behind this system,
above normal temperatures will be in place for the later this
week, with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 635 PM EST, a heavier batch of precipitation has allowed
for significant wet bulb cooling of the boundary layer, with most
temps now hovering close to the freezing mark. Some temps across
higher terrain areas have fallen close to 30, with even some upper
20s across portions of the western Adirondacks. Even across the
mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield CO CT, temps are now close to the
freezing mark.

Regional radars suggest steadiest precip currently across and east
of the region, with more spotty coverage to the west across
central NY. There is one additional band of moderate precip, most
likely associated with enhanced forcing from the tail of the
shearing shortwave currently translating E/NE Lake Ontario/western
NY.

So, expect periods of mainly a freezing rain/sleet mix along with
some pockets of plain rain in some lower elevations this evening,
with precip intensity moderate at times. Some wet snow may mix in
at times when heavier precip intensity occurs for mainly north of
Interstate 90 this evening, with precipitation most likely
especially across portions of the southern Adirondacks, southern
VT, and the Lake George region. In these areas, snow/sleet accums
of up to an inch will be possible in valley areas, with 2-4 inches
possible across higher terrain, except locally 4-6 inches across
higher elevations of eastern Bennington CO and through portions of
Windham CO VT. Across the Berkshires, highest elevations across NE
Berkshire CO may receive 2-4 inches this evening, with 1-3 inches
across SE Berkshire CO, and generally a coating to an inch
elsewhere, least in valley areas across western portions of
Berkshire County.

There could even be a slushy coating to less than an inch of
snow/sleet for areas close to the I-90 corridor, perhaps even
northern portions of the Capital Region, and higher elevations of
the Helderbergs.

As for ice accretion, most valley areas should receive a trace to
up to one tenth of an inch. Across higher elevations of the
Catskills, Schoharie CO, Helderbergs, and extreme southern
Herkimer CO may receive between one tenth and as much as one third
of an inch. Across western New England, between one tenth and one
quarter of an inch could occur across portions of eastern
Berkshire CO, with generally less than one tenth of an inch
elsewhere. A coating to one tenth of an inch could occur across
highest elevations of the Litchfield Hills, with only a trace
possible in lower elevations. For the Adirondacks, where more
sleet/snow is expected, generally a trace to one tenth of an inch
of ice accretion is expected.

Precip intensity should decrease from west to east toward and
especially after midnight as the main forcing from the shearing
upper level shortwave and leading edge of isentropic lift
diminish. Slightly colder low level air may be drawn south and
west into portions of the Berkshires/Litchfield Hills later at
night, so despite decreasing intensity of precip, still could be
some freezing drizzle. Elsewhere, precip should become more
showery, and with persistent warm advection, temps may actually
rise a bit from evening lows, rising back to around or just above
freezing in valley areas from Albany south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday-Wednesday night, although the deepest/strongest forcing
will have shifted well east of the region, a combination of
persistent weak low level convergence, moist low levels, and
perhaps a slight uptick in synoptic forcing/deformation well north
of a potent shortwave passing south of the region should act to
keep areas of light precipitation through much of the day. With
cloud tops fairly shallow, limited ice crystals are expected in
the clouds, and therefore mainly liquid hydrometeors are expected.
However, if any deeper/higher clouds pass by, there could be a few
periods of wet snow mixing in. Some freezing drizzle may persist
well into the morning across higher terrain of the Adirondacks and
western New England, and if confidence in this trend increases, it
is possible that portions of the current Winter Weather Advisory
may need to be extended in time. Otherwise mainly cloudy and cool,
with highs mainly in the 30s. For Wednesday night, still could be
some patchy/areas of drizzle and/or freezing drizzle, with best
chance across higher terrain. If any breaks in the clouds develop
toward daybreak Thursday, temps could fall into the upper
20s/lower 30s, and any wet ground surfaces could freeze up, so
this will need to also be watched closely for potential black ice
formation.

Thursday-Thursday night, weak high pressure should build into the
region. Skies some clearing is expected during the day Thursday,
although it may occur rather slowly in some areas. Mainly clear
for Thursday night. Thursday highs should reach the mid 30s to
lower/mid 40s, with Thu nt lows mainly in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will race east across the Ohio Valley and off the Mid-
Atlantic coast during the first 24 hours of the period, doing
nothing more than spreading extra cloudiness across the southern
zones.  A weak high pressure ridge will affect the region Saturday
night into early Sunday, but there will probably still be more
clouds than sun.  This moves quickly off the eastern seaboard on
Sunday.

Deepening low pressure over the Arklatex region during the weekend
will bring the first chance of precipitation on Monday as it tracks
up the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region.  Monday night and
Tuesday will see the greatest opportunity for significant rainfall,
with mixed precipitation in the higher terrain, and snow in the
Adirondacks and Greens.

Until Monday night and Tuesday, temperatures will be fairly
consistent, with daytime highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s range, and
overnight lows from the mid 20s to mid 30s.  Monday night will be a
few degrees milder, and so will Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very tough forecast regarding specific precipitation types and
their timing at the TAF sites with surface temperatures near
freezing. Overall MVFR-IFR conditions expected to lower to
widespread IFR overnight. Peak warming aloft is occurring this
evening. Have reports of rain and freezing rain depending on
surface temperatures along with sleet in some places. Temperatures
will drop as secondary develop occurs off the DELMARVA coast
overnight and latest surface analysis shows pressure falls have
begun to occur along coast. More sleet and transition to snow is
expected as temperatures cool mainly for areas along and north of
I-90, again surface temperatures will be critical. Primary
surface low will weaken on it moves across region Wednesday as the
coastal low strengthens and moves eastward out to sea. Expecting
MVFR conditions is persist through the day Wednesday.

Light/variable to calm winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN...DZ.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A storm system will bring a wintry mix to the region tonight into
tomorrow. Total liquid equivalent amounts will be one half inch to
one inch. Although some of this precipitation will be frozen, some
minor rises on rivers and streams can be expected, especially from
the Mohawk River on southward. However, no flooding is expected.

Behind this storm system, temperatures will average above normal
for the remainder of the week. Some snow melt over the Adirondacks
and southern Vermont may contribute to some additional runoff,
but any rises on rivers and streams will only be very minor and
overnight lows should fall below freezing most of the time.
Little, if any, precipitation is expected for Thursday into the
weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ038-040-
     047>054-058>061-063>066.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032-
     033-039-041>043-082>084.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ001-
     025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...Frugis/KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/KL



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