Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 250742
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
342 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of wet and cooler weather is expected today as a warm
front lifts northward. A break in the precipitation may allow
for some higher winds may mix down for portions of the
Taconics, Berkshires and southern Vermont today. Then a coastal
storm takes shape tonight with additional periods of rain
expected overnight into Friday. The holiday weekend starts off
rather dry and seasonable before the threat for showers return
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 AM EDT...
...A Wind Advisory has been expanded to include portions of the
Taconics and southern Berkshires...

Overall forecast thoughts remain in place as leading edge of the
precipitation was along the I80 corridor across eastern PA into
NJ. This is along the leading edge of the warm conveyor belt and
theta-e advection that will transverse the region this morning.
Meanwhile, LLJ magnitudes increase to at or above 40kts from
later this morning and through the afternoon hours. As mid level
dry slot advances northward around noon and into the afternoon
hours, we will be watching for the potential of a gravity wave
development. The Duct Function indicates values close to 20
along and east of the Hudson River and along with our
climatology favored ESE winds for portions of the Taconics,
Berks and southern Greens, we will expand and continue the Wind
Advisory at this time. Further west, forecast soundings suggest
the boundary layer remains stable enough to keep the higher
magnitude winds above the surface. Due to cloud coverage and
precipitation, we will undercut highs slightly and closer to the
latest run of the LAMP/LAV with mainly 50s across the region.
The main upper low remains upstream across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley`s which will become our next hazard tonight
through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The Duct Function gravity wave potential and associated wind
magnitudes diminish as the initial moisture surge lifts away to
our north. The aforementioned upstream upper low a rather
potent pv-anomaly rounding the base of an increasingly
negatively tilted trough aloft across the eastern CONUS that is
forecast to lift northeast overnight. A surface low should
evolve across the middle Atlantic region and track toward the
vicinity of NYC/Boston, MA 06-12Z Friday. So while there may be
a break in the precipitation this evening, showers and/or
periods of rain should fill back in across the region overnight.
At this time, seems locations along and east of the Hudson
River are under the higher probability for rainfall where the
best deformation and TROWAL are forecast.

Friday appears to be a rather cloudy and soggy day as the
combination of the coastal low and moist cyclonic flow aloft will
keep the high threat for wet weather in the forecast. The low
pressure system translates further east which will take the
higher threat of rainfall across western New England through the
day. Highs will range from the upper 50s across the high terrain
to mid 60s across the Mid-Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night-Saturday, slowly departing storm system off New England
coast may still allow for some residual low level moisture and/or
bands of clouds to pivot south and west across the region through
Saturday morning. So, have boosted cloud coverage during this time.
Also, some spotty light showers or patchy drizzle may occur,
particularly across higher terrain. Some drying may slowly work
southward for Saturday afternoon, but degree of clearing remains
uncertain. So, although Saturday looks to be the less active day of
the upcoming Holiday weekend, we still can not rule out clouds
persisting through a good portion of the day, and that it remains
completely dry. Friday night lows should be in the mid 40s to lower
50s. Late afternoon highs Saturday should reach the mid 60s to lower
70s, although if more pronounced afternoon clearing occurs, warmer
highs would occur.

The remainder upcoming holiday weekend looks to be quite active.
Global models are hinting at upper level ridging/subsidence
persisting Saturday night and possibly Sunday morning, resulting
partly cloudy conditions. Then, an approaching upper level trough
will result in a developing low pressure system over the Great Lakes
with a cold front extending southward on Sunday, along with a warm
front extending into the northern mid Atlantic states. The
approaching warm front will bring with it a chance for some showers
and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.
Highs Sunday will climb into the lower 70s in the valley regions and
mid/upper 60s in the higher terrain with lows in most locations in
the low to mid 50s.

Sunday night through Tuesday, another closed upper low develops
across the Great Lakes Region with a series of waves traversing
through the cyclonic flow. This will keep the threat of showers and
some thunderstorms through Tuesday. A frontal boundary looks to move
through the region Monday afternoon/evening with some surface based
instability, decent mid-level thermodynamics and kinematic fields.
However, there is a chance that cool, stable air remains across at
least portions of the region, as the warm front may get hung up,
especially if an offshore surface wave develops as pronounced as
some guidance suggests. Chance for thunderstorms will depend greatly
on if and when the warm front moves through the region. GFS/ECMWF
are hinting at another secondary front moving through the region on
Tuesday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms yet again.
Temperatures are tricky for Monday, again highly dependent on if the
warm front clears the region. For now, have leaned on the cooler
side of guidance, with 60s for most higher elevations, and lower 70s
in valleys, but should the warm front move through, temperatures
across portions of the region could be at least 5-10 degrees warmer.
Overnight lows mainly in the 50s. Tuesday highs should reach the
mid/upper 70s for lower elevations, and 65-70 across higher terrain.

Wednesday/Thursday, it appears that upper level cyclonic flow and
possible embedded upper level impulses may keep at least scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms across portions of the region, with
greatest chances north of I-90. Some small hail/gusty winds could
occur with any convection given cold air aloft and a fairly strong
mid/upper level wind field. Highs should be in the mid 60s to lower
70s, although may be cooler Thursday behind a reinforcing cold
front. Lows should range from the mid 40s across higher terrain, to
the lower/mid 50s in valley areas.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A complex storm system will approach from the Ohio Valley and
the Mid Atlantic Region into Thursday. Some rain will move into
the region this morning ahead of a warm front and low pressure
system near eastern PA and NJ. The low pressure system will
slowly move northeast into New England Thursday night into
Friday.

VFR conditions are expected prior to 12Z/THU at
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Clouds will begin to thicken and lower
ahead of the double barrel low pressure system to the south and
west especially towards midnight. Expect midlevel clouds in the
8-10 kft AGL range to move into the TAF sites by 12Z. Some warm
advection light rain/showers will start to reach KPOU and
locations to the south and west of KALB between 12Z-15Z. The
trends will be for these showers to lift north/northeast through
the late morning into the afternoon with MVFR visibilities and
ceilings possible. A bit uncertain about IFR conditions yet late
Thursday morning and afternoon, but cigs in the 1500-2500 foot
range with visibilities of 3SM to 5SM are possible in the
rain/showers.

The winds will be light from the southeast at 6 kts or less
tonight, but start to increase quickly from the east to
northeast at 8-13 kts Thursday morning at 12-13Z with some
gusts around 20-25 kts at KALB, and around 30 kts at KPSF as a
strong east to southeast low level jet impacts the region.

Some low-level wind shear indicated starting around 15Z THU, as
the 2000 foot winds increase in guidance to 35-40 Kt with the
surface winds less than 10 Kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...DZ.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...FG.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and wet weather will begin today and last through Friday to
reduce fire weather related concerns. A period of dry weather is
expected this first half of the weekend with clouds and the
chance for more showers arriving later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall is expected across the area today into
Friday as a slow moving low pressure system approaches and moves
across the region. Rainfall amounts of one half inch, to around
an inch are expected.

Fair weather is expected for Saturday, however unsettled weather
returns for the latter part of the holiday weekend through at
least early next week with additional rainfall.

These periods of rain may result in some within bank rises on
area streams and rivers.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The ASOS in Glens Falls at the Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport
will experience outages until communications are fully
restored.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ054-061.
MA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
     for MAZ001-025.
VT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
     for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Cebulko/KL
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
EQUIPMENT...ALY Staff

www.weather.gov/albany



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