Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 252051
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
451 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Friday ahead of a cold front. Fair and warm conditions are
forecast for Saturday into Sunday as high pressure moves across
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Shower activity continues to drift east across the CWA ahead of a
weak warm front. No lightning has been observed through the day.
This will exit the CWA by 6 pm.

As is typical for late August, subtle features will drive the
weather. One feature to watch is a vorticity maxima tracking
across lower Michigan late this afternoon. The RAP weakens this
feature as it moves east tonight. Convective models show the bulk
of the activity associated with the vort max will track into
western PA. The HRRR supports chance pops across most of the CWA
mainly later tonight. Instability is negligible. So have opted to
not include thunder.

Temperatures drop to near 70 urban areas with 60s suburban/rural.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The leading edge of drier air will be working across the CWA on
Friday. The day will start out humid, but by afternoon drier air
will be working in. Some uptick in instability is noted from late
morning into the afternoon. So, chances of showers and
thunderstorms into the afternoon. Temperatures will be warm to hot
with highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s valley locations
to 70s and 80s higher elevations. By the time temperatures reach
peak heating, dew points should be dropping most locales. Peak
heat indices reach the mid to upper 90s in the mid-Hudson Valley.
With the afternoon trend for dew points to be dropping, will not
mention in the HWO.

High pressure will be in control Friday night into Saturday night bringing
mostly clear skies. Temperatures will still be above normal for
late August, with dew points somewhat more comfortable, although
above normal for late August.

Another cold front approaches on Sunday bringing an increase in
clouds. Sunday should be dry, with just a chance of some showers
late across the northwest CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts off Sunday night into early Monday with a weak
cold front moving through the region. At this time, forcing,
instability, and moisture look to be rather limited so general
showers and thunderstorms are expected, with the best chances across
the northwest portion of the area closer to the better dynamics
associated with the upper trough axis. The front will most likely
clear the area Monday morning, but in case there is a slight lag in
timing will mention isolated pops through Monday.

Dry and tranquil conditions are then expected Monday night through
Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. A northwest flow
regime aloft looks to set up during the mid week period, so cannot
rule out a few showers and thunderstorms with a weak disturbance
Tuesday night. Otherwise, it is difficult to time disturbances well
into next week. Will broadbrush slight chance pops from Wednesday
night through Thursday night until timing comes into better focus.

Temperatures look to continue to be above normal for late August
into early September, which continues the trend throughout most of
the summer.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak warm front is crossing the TAF sites today, followed by
the approach of a cold front for tonight. Scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms will be possible with these fronts this
afternoon into Friday.

Expect VFR conditions outside of showers and embedded
thunderstorms today. Periods of MVFR/IFR vsbys/cigs will be
possible in heavier showers.

For tonight, there still could be isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms into the evening hours. Otherwise, areas of
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys should develop after 02Z/Fri given a rather
moist boundary layer. The best chance for sustained IFR conditions
should be at KPSF after 07Z/Fri. Another round of showers and
possible thunderstorms is expected Friday morning as the cold
front moves across the TAF sites.

Winds will remain from the south to southwest and decrease to
less than 10 KT after sunset. Winds will shift to the northwest
Friday afternoon and become gusty for a few hours before sunset
when they will slowly diminish after dark.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated showers will occur tonight, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front on Friday. Fair and
warm conditions are forecast for Saturday as high pressure moves
across the area.

RH recovers to 80-100 percent tonight and Friday night. A slight
drying trend is expected Friday with minimum RH values 45 to 55
percent.

South to southwest winds at 5-10 mph tonight shift to west and
northwest at 15 mph or less Friday. Near calm winds are expected Friday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are expected tonight into
Friday. Most rainfall amounts should remain a half inch or less,
although locally higher amounts of over 1 inch will be possible in
thunderstorms.

Dry conditions will return for Saturday into Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKeefe
NEAR TERM...OKeefe
SHORT TERM...OKeefe
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe
HYDROLOGY...OKeefe



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