Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 061137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS.

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
HOWEVER IT WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ALOFT A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE IN DAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY WITH A BITTERLY COLD START. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE UNDER SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NORMAL HIGH
FOR ALBANY NY FOR MARCH 6TH IS 40 DEGREES.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT CAUSING THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

MID AND LOW LEVELS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD
BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER LOW SAT
     THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE 500HPA FLOW CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. TUES THE FCA IS IN BTWN SYSTEMS AS THE N BRANCH SYSTEM
IS WELL NW OF FCA..AND S BRANCH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY W/PC CONDS AND TEMPS NR OR EVEN A FEW
DEG ABV NORMAL.

TUES NT INTO WED THE GFS DIGS A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA SHORT WV
AND A TRANSIENT TROF OVER NE AND DROPS A STRONGER CDFNT SE
THROUGH FCA. THE REST OF THE MDL SUITE (ECMWF/GEM/HPC) KEEP BOTH
THE FAST FLOW...MOST OF THE 500HPA ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WELL N OF FCA WED. IF IT PRODUCES ANY PCPN IT WILL BE
LIGHT AS IT TOO REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TWRD THIS SOLUTION.

THURS INTO FRI THE TROF OVER THE EAST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE
COLD CORE RETREATS NE INTO QB AND THE N ATLC. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD 500HPA RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ABV NORMALS INTO
THE MID 30 TO MID 40S.

WILL POPULATE EFP WITH HPC GRIDS AS THEY ARE IN THE CONSENSUS OF
GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

WE STARTING OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN/SHRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



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