Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 230528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ONLY SOME PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE CENTRAL TACONICS. THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN TO OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY ERODE. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

WINDS HAVE TRENDED TO NEAR CALM IN MANY VALLEY AREAS...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S. STILL EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE.

SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND POSSIBLE SE VT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OTHER AREAS ADJACENT TO BODIES OF WATER TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS






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