Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 031030
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
530 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal passage and upper level trough will push through the
region tonight. A period of rain and snow showers, along with lake
effect, to impact portions of the region through tonight. A brisk
northwest flow with residual snow showers and flurries continue into
the start of the weekend with improving conditions expected
toward the second half of the weekend. Then a chance for light
snow increases Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 530 AM EST...Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies along with some
lake effect snow showers prevailed across the forecast area. The
snow showers were mainly across the Schoharie Valley and eastern
Catskills as well as downwind of Lake Champlain. Temperatures were
in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

For today...Expect generally partly sunny skies in the valleys
with a continuation although decreasing chances of snow showers
across the mountains as flow backs off to the north and west and
inversion heights lower. Skies across the higher terrain will
generally be mostly cloudy to cloudy through the day. There may
be some Champlain effect for a time this morning off the south end
of Lake Champlain across portions of Washington and Bennington
counties. Little in the way of snowfall accumulation is expected
today with perhaps an inch of additional snowfall from Old Forge
to Raquette Lake northward. Highs today will range from the upper
20s to lower 30s northwest to the low to mid 40s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight...Any lingering snow showers will come to an end as
flow starts to become anticyclonic with high pressure moving east
from the eastern Great Lakes. Lows will be in the upper teens to
upper 20s.

On Sunday...Expect dry and mainly sunny skies as a large ridge of
high pressure crests across the region. Highs will range from the
upper 20s and lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.

For Sunday night and Monday...A trough of low pressure will be
impacting the region as it dives southeast from the upper Great
Lakes. While there is not a great deal of moisture associated with
this system, the bulk of the pcpn looks to fall as snow. Snowfall
amounts look to be less than an inch in the valleys with a couple
of inches across the higher terrain. Lows Sunday night are
expected to be in the upper teens to upper 20s with highs on
Monday in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

For Monday night...Expect high pressure to move across the region
with dry conditions once again and lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active southern and northern streams with a complex pattern next
week with unsettled weather with near seasonable temperatures
expected.

Overall guidance is on agreement with large scale features/systems,
however as it typical for this time frame the differences are with
the individual short waves moving through the flow and their timing,
amplitude and influence on the large scale features. Have taken lead
from the Weather Prediction Center for the timing of systems to
maintain forecast consistency.

A storm system originating in the deep south near the gulf coast is
expected to eventually pass to our south moving off the southeast/
mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing overrunning
precipitation to the region. A period of snow is expected with some
light accumulations. A lull is then expected as the next system
evolves with northern and southern stream energy possibly
interacting/phasing.
The uncertainties regarding this system are much greater. The
expectation is for this system to impact the local area Thursday
into Friday with rain and snow during the day and snow at night. QPF
amounts are expected to be higher than the system earlier in the
week.  Guidance does agree colder air should  be ushered into the
region with the passage of the system with blustery conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The region is under cyclonic flow with short wave continuing to
rotate about the low pressure located to our northeast. This is
resulting in lake enhanced clouds and showers across local area.

VFR conditions are expected with the exception of MVFR ceilings
across the higher terrain of the Berkshires, KPSF. Heights will
begin to gradually rise late in the day into the evening as
ridging builds in from the west. Thus expecting cloud cover to
decrease with mostly clear skies developing at KPOU.

West-northwest winds will persist with gusts expected through the
overnight at KALB and KSPF. Gusty conditions are expected to
develop at KGFL and KPOU Saturday morning with stronger winds and
gusts at KALB and KPSF. Flow will begin to weaken with gusts
ending as we head through the evening hours.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River levels will continue to slowly recede through the next
several days.

Through Saturday there will be periods of lake effect/upslope
rain/snow showers. Snow will be likely at higher elevations with a
mix of rain/snow showers in the valleys. The precipitation will be
heaviest in the western Adirondacks where it will fall mostly as
snow. The precipitation through Saturday will have little impact
on rivers and streams.

Some light snow is possible Sunday night into early Monday, with
better chances for wintry precip towards the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11/JPV



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