Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 301336
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
836 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LIGHT
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TODAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS SENDING WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW
ZERO TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM UPDATE... SN/+SN IS BEING OBSERVED ATTM WITHIN A SW-NE
ORIENTED BAND ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF THE WRN CATSKILLS. THIS
FEATURE IS ON THE NWRN/DEFORMATION SIDE OF A S/WV LIFTING THROUGH
THE RGN THIS MRNG. POP/WX/SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT
SUCH DVLPMTS. WE`VE ADDED A CORRIDOR OF 2-3" ADDTNL SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND AREA THROUGH 15-16Z. A SHORT-TERM
SPS WAS ALSO ISSUED.

OTHWS...THE FCST IS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. FAIRLY DEEP LYR OF INSTAB
NOTED ON THE 12Z KBUF SNDG...INDICATIVE OF THE AMS WE`LL HAVE
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...AHD OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/WV. LIKELY POPS
FOR SNOW SHWRS OVER MOST OF CNY...WITH MORE SCTD ACTIVITY ACRS
MUCH OF NE PA...STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A FLUFFY 1-2"
ANTICIPATED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SHSN. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LATEST HRRR AND HI-RES ARW OUTPUT IN PARTICULAR SHOW A WELL
FORMED MULTI-BAND/FINGER LKS BAND FROM LTR THIS MRNG...THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND INTO THE EVE HRS...DOWN THE AXIS OF CAYUGA LAKE...AND THEN
SEWD FROM THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMPKINS/TIOGA CNTYS. SINCE THERE
ARE ALREADY SOME INDICATIONS OF BANDING IN THIS GENERAL AREA
ATTM...WE`LL MONITOR THAT CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN STG CAA THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS STILL
LOOK LIKELY...AND OUR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TREND WAS KEPT IN TACT.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
WEST THEN NW. MOST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH FRONTS OVER
WITH...HAVING MOVED INTO ERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
DURATION AND THE OBS FROM SYR AND BGM PROBABLY GOT LESS THAN 4
INCHES. LAKE EFFECT WILL START WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT. THIS
BACKED UP ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE AND TROF. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
SHIFTS FROM 280 TO 310. ALSO WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH
BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. LAKE EFFECT STARTS WITH MULTIBANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES
AND NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA REGION. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY 1 TO
3 INCHES. THE WIND WILL CAUSE DRIFTING. SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DROPPED WWA.

TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLOWLY ALL DAY. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ZERO
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA. WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL
BELOW ZERO WITH TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST. WINDS STAY ABOVE 10 MPH.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH AS DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT AND THE
DENDRITE ZONE FALLS TO THE SFC. WEAK MULTIBANDS WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. THE LAKE EFFECT DIES SATURDAY WHEN THE LL
WINDS SHIFT.

SAT NGT A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR CENT NY.
FORCING AND MOISTURE LACKING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH AGAIN WITH THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY STORM.
NOW NE PA COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN NY. SNOW
STARTS SUN AFTN AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE STORM TRACK IS NOW
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THEN SLOWING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AS IT INTENSIFIES. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY...BUT UPPED POPS,
QPF, AND SNOWFALL. CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z CYCLE AND SHOW THE SFC LOW MONDAY
MORNING MOVING THROUGH NRN VA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES TO BE
FARTHER SOUTH AS IT TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. BASED
ON FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TWO MODEL RUNS UPPED THE
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SE FA.

330 PM UPDATE... MODEL DISAGREEMENT/INCONSISTENCY CONTS WITH THE
LATEST CYCLES REGARDING THE SUN NGT-MON STORM SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EC/GFS HAVE TRENDED NWD SOMEWHAT AGN...NOW TRACKING
THE SFC LOW THROUGH VA AND SERN MD...AND BRINGING LGT SNOW AT
LEAST TO THE PA/NY BORDER...IF NOT INTO NY`S SRN TIER.
MEANWHILE...THE CAN GEM HAS NOW GONE MUCH FARTHER S...TAKING THE
SFC WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH LTL OR NO SNOWFALL FOR OUR FA.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER MODEL
WAFFLING...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING S/WV ENERGY IS
NOW JUST APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WE`LL
SIMPLY MAKE VERY SMALL INCREMENTAL CHGS ATTM...JUST EASING POPS
UPWARD AGN TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST EC/GFS TRENDS. THIS RESULTS
IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR FAR SRN ZNS SUN NGT (BACK DOWN TO CHC BY
MON)...AND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PD FOR OUR NY SRN TIER CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH...STRICTLY SPEAKING...WE`RE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER PTNS OF NE PA...THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITN.

TUE INTO WED LOOK QUIETER...BUT VERY COLD...WITH ONLY SOME FLRYS
FORESEEN AT WORST.

BY WED NGT AND THU...OUR NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRNT AND NRN STREAM
S/WV APPROACH...BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS. THE EC IS ALSO
SHOWING THE PSBLTY THAT SOME SRN STREAM MOISTURE GETS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT ALL OF THESE FINE
DETAILS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. AT KITH/KBGM, OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MIDDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
SCATTERING OUT EXCEPT FOR KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN
UPSLOPE FLOW.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS SLOWLY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...SAT NGT...AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT  MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM





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