Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211744
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1244 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record warmth will continue until a cold front moves
through this afternoon with rain showers. As cooler air
descends into the region, a wintry mix is likely from late
tonight through Friday morning. Several inches of snow and sleet
are expected, along with coatings of ice from freezing rain.
Additional waves of rain are expected Friday afternoon through
the weekend along with temperatures becoming milder again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM Update...Not many changes to the near term forecast.
Fast moving cold front is now approaching the western portion of
the forecast area and will approach the I-81 corridor by midday,
then move through our SE zones by late afternoon. Some patchy
fog is still lingering over the higher Poconos and Sullivan
County NY...but this should dissipate by noon. As the front
moves through precip amounts are still looking rather light;
mainly less than a tenth of an inch. One exception to this may be
over far southern Luzerne County which may actually be clipped
by a bit of convective shower activity...and an isolated t`storm
cannot be ruled out in this area as well...mainly between
2-5 PM this afternoon. Any convective showers or t`storms could
produce locally higher rainfall totals. Otherwise, near record
to record high temperatures is the other main story for today as
temps have already risen into the 60s and even lower 70s in
most locations late this morning. Syracuse NY has reached 73
degrees thus far, which is a new all time record high reading
for February...breaking the old record set on 02-24-2017 when
it reached 71 degrees.


410 AM Update...
Record or near record warmth is again expected today, but a
quick dropoff in temperatures will occur this afternoon as a
cold front progresses through the region, accompanied by some
showers.

Anomalous warmth continues for now. Syracuse at midnight already
tied its record high for today at 65 degrees, and that may be
revisited by late morning. Binghamton airport daily record is 61
set in 1953; like yesterday our forecast has it being broken by
a few degrees. Avoca PA record today is 67 degrees; it will be
very close. That being said, even with warm strong
southwesterly flow we have had a few of our most prone radiational
cooling spots dip down considerably - and temporarily -
including Elmira now at only 40 degrees with fog. Though fog in
the Poconos-Catskills is patchier compared to yesterday morning,
it is still thick in spots including Monticello which has only
quarter mile visibility.

Cold front is set to sweep NW to SE this afternoon to early
evening, with some showers producing only about a tenth of an
inch of rain and even less for some locations especially east of
I-81. Ahead of the front, widespread 60s are again foreseen for
highs today, and lower elevations of Northeast PA-Sullivan
County NY could reach 70 in spots. Though the showers will be
semi-convective, we do not see enough instability for thunder
along the front.

Flood Watch continues for Oneida County. Recent rainfall plus
melting snow has resulted in elevated/rising water levels for
many of our waterways in Central NY; a few are in caution stage.
However, actual flood potential for now is limited to Oneida
County due to a snowpack still existing in the north that is
melting/running off into streams, and prospects for ice jams
that could cause short-notice problems including Fish Creek
between Taberg and Sylvan Beach.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
415 AM update...
Very trick situation late tonight through Thursday and beyond,
during which shallow cool air will descend over the area while
relatively milder air persists aloft. This will cause a
complicated wintry mix with not a lot of confidence in details
at this time. Overall, icy mix potential appears highest for the
Twin Tiers and into higher elevations of Northeast PA, though
this could change. A stripe of crusty snow-sleet can also be
anticipated on the north side of the mix; which at this time
appears most probable from Finger Lakes through much of Central
NY mainly south of the NY Thruway. We have not issued Winter
Weather Advisories yet but it is just a matter of time. The
next shift will get a good look at new model data to finesse
the forecast and make those decisions. For now we are including
the wintry mix/ice potential within our local Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Temperatures will gradually fall behind the front into mid 20s-
mid 30s by dawn Thursday. However, with surface high passing by
to our north late tonight-Thursday, the cool air mass will be
quite shallow. All model guidance shows subfreezing 925mb
temperatures undercutting above freezing 850mb temperatures
somewhere within our area. While that general zone is near the
PA-NY border, there is uncertainty for how much north or south
it will drift, and how wide the wintry mix stripe will be. One
tricky thing about this also, is that it will just get
developing very late tonight into Thursday morning, thus making
commute decisions difficult to realize until it is right on top
of the area. Temperatures will not move a whole lot during the
day Thursday, with highs of lower to mid 30s, except some upper
30s in lower elevations of Northeast PA, particularly the metro
valley of Scranton/Wilkes-Barre which may keep rain as
precipitation type the whole time.

Where snow occurs, a dense 1-2 inches is expected, and as for
ice the potential is there for a tenth to quarter inch
especially higher elevations of Twin Tiers to Catskills.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 am update...
Active period with several areas of precipitation moving
through this period. Temperatures remain above normal but cool
enough for some snow or a mix at times. Not much change to the
previous forecast.

Thursday night into Friday morning will be the most hazardous
as very light mixed precipitation continues into Thursday night.
Temperatures fall below freezing at the surface with above
freezing air in a shallow layer aloft. Steady light
precipitation moves in from the west Friday morning producing
some freezing rain and sleet mostly from interstate 81 east.
Further to the west it will be mostly rain. Temperatures at the
surface warm into the upper 30s and 40s so precipitation changes
to all rain. A front goes through in the evening but
precipitation remains mainly rain. Rain total amounts of a
quarter to half an inch. Ice amounts could approach a tenth of
an inch mostly across the twin tiers into the Catskills.

Saturday to Sunday temperatures remain above freezing except
Oneida County Saturday night. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s
both days. Lows in the mid and upper 30s for most of CWA.
Saturday some rain in the far south closest to the stalled
front. This front lifts north Saturday night ahead of an
occluded front late Sunday. Steady rain most of Sunday. This
batch will be around a half inch with possibly more for the
Poconos.

High pressure builds in for Monday with dry weather. High
temperatures back into the 40s. Maybe a weak system goes through
Tuesday to Wednesday with mixed precipitation and slightly
cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18z update... We continue to foresee a complicated weather
scenario unfolding over the next 24 hours.

Conditions will deteriorate quickly across our CNY terminal
sites this afternoon, behind a strong cold front. Ceiling based
restrictions should fall within the below alternate-IFR
categories. The one small exception is KAVP, where a somewhat
delayed frontal passage will keep mainly VFR going until 20-21z,
before conditions worsen.

Tonight, as drier low-level air temporarily moves in, we should
see improvement back to VFR for much of the evening. Towards
daybreak, some lower ceilings may develop over the region again,
with fuel alternate the most probable restriction category.

Thursday, a wintry mix scenario looks increasingly likely, as
steadier precipitation overspreads the region during the
morning hours. The most probable precipitation types at KITH,
KELM, and KBGM are snow and sleet. At KAVP, the current
expectation is that surface temperatures will hover just above
freezing, with rain the most probable precipitation type.
However, it would not take much additional cooling to tip the
scales towards freezing rain. At any rate, IFR-below alternate
restrictions are expected, with KBGM and KITH perhaps
challenging field minimums in heavier periods of snow.

As for KSYR and KRME, it appears these sites will be on the
northern fringe of the snow shield, so we`ve only indicated MVFR
restrictions at this time.

Gusty NW surface winds this afternoon (initially SW at KAVP
until later this afternoon), will become northerly tonight at
around 5-8 kt, then N-NE on Thursday.

Outlook...
Thursday night...Restrictions continue, with lower ceilings, and
perhaps a spotty light wintry mix.

Friday through Sunday...Restrictions continue, with steadier
rain (or perhaps freezing rain for a time Friday) most likely to
occur Friday afternoon/evening, then again later Saturday into
early Sunday.

Monday...Improvement back to VFR possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MJM/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MLJ



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