Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 252349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
749 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Cold winds moving over Lake Ontario will keep widely scattered rain
and snow showers in the forecast through early Wednesday. A strong
storm system sliding toward Ohio will spread mixed precipitation
into NY and PA late Wednesday night.


130 PM update...
It almost seems like winter, when lake activity often tapers off
more slowly than the models forecast. Our latest forecast keeps
widely scattered rain or snow showers over NY and far northern PA
through Wednesday morning.

It will be quite cold tonight, with temperatures dipping down into
the middle and upper 20s.

1026 AM update...
Cold air flowing over the lakes continues to produce lake effect
rain showers late this morning. Given the persistence of the
activity over the last two hours, we increased the scope and
duration of the showers into this afternoon.


350 PM EDT Update...
A quasi-Alberta clipper is forecast to move across the northeast on
Wednesday night/Thursday morning which may bring our first snow
widespread snowfall event of the season. This wave will be quick and
expect at least most of the area to see between half an inch to two
inches of snow.

Latest guidance seems to slow down the onset of the precip over the
region, with the rain/snow moving into the western portions of the
area late Wednesday evening. Precip will slowly move east overnight
and expect to be pushing right against I-81 by 6-8AM time frame (as
rain/snow). Precip will continue to shift east after 12Z. The
further east, the better the chance a location will have for precip
to fall in the form as just snow and not a mix. This is strongly due
to the mid-lvl low  will slowly approach the region from the west
early thurs morning, drawing in very warm air into the region, due
to a strong LLJ, thus transitioning snow to rain. All frozen precip
should transition over to rain by late Thursday evening. ATTM the
best chance for snow will be between 5AM - 10 AM.  The higher
elevations may see frozen precip linger the longest throughout the

The system will slide east Thursday night and lake effect showers
will follow through Friday afternoon until high pressure builds
into the region .

Temps Thurs morning will range in the uppr 20s to low 30s, and rise
into the the uppr 30s to low 40s Thurs afternoon. Then fall into the
mid 30s to low 40s Friday morning. Temps Fri afternoon are expected
to rise into the low to mid 40s.


350 PM EDT Update...
Overall, minor changes were made to the previous forecast. The
extended forecast continues to look active with a chance for precip
in the forecast Friday night through Sunday evening as a sfc low
moves across the region. The best chance for precip attm appears to
be on Sat as the low moves across the region. High pressure is
expected to move back into the region again on Monday and then our
next chance for precip may be next Tuesday night.


VFR through the end of the TAF period. A northwest flow of air
will keep BKN to OVC cigs across the NY terminals through mid
Wednesday, generally around 5 to 6,000 feet. A few showers are
possible at KSYR with (no restrictions)through 06Z otherwise dry
weather is expected all terminals.

Northwest winds 5 kts or less tonight, then 5 to 10 kts on


Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday...IFR possible Wednesday
night/early Thursday in light snow otherwise on and off MVFR
possible in rain showers.




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