Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 011046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF


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