Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 071740
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...SHUNTING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER A
MAINLY DRY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TOUCHED UP GRIDS FOR QUICKER NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF INITIAL
BATCH OF SHOWERS NOW IN WESTERN CATSKILLS TO MADISON-ONEIDA
COUNTIES. ALSO FOLLOWED LATEST HIGH RES MODEL TRENDS IN ALLOWING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER ON BACK EDGE OF UPPER WAVE TO LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER EAST OF I-81 INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST...INCLUDING MAIN FRONTAL SHOWERS-THUNDER TONIGHT AFTER A
BREAK IN THE ACTION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WHAT WAS AN UPPER LOW...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE OPENING UP INTO
THE WSW FLOW CURRENTLY OVER OUR REGION. AS IT SHEARS
OUT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
ADVECT UP THE CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...THEN SHUNT MAINLY EAST OF I-81
LATER THIS MORNING ALONG EXITING VORTICITY LOBE. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OUT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST
OF THE TIME AND INDEED SOME AREAS GETTING MISSED ALTOGETHER.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE...SHOULD YIELD MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...COLD FRONT WILL
BE INBOUND. UPPER WAVE WILL RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INDUCE
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO SWEEP THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY...BUT THUNDER CHANCES /INITIALLY FAIRLY HIGH IN THE
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL TWIN TIERS REGION THIS EVENING/ WILL
DIMINISH A BIT AS THE ACTIVITY HEADS EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH
LOSS OF INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT.

SHEAR IS QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ADD UNFAVORABLE NOCTURNAL
TIMING OF FRONT...AND THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS MINIMAL. THE BIGGER POTENTIAL ISSUE IN THIS CASE IS THE
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN THE 850-750MB LAYER WHICH WILL INJECT
MOISTURE...SURGING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE WAVE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT BIG PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...WITH THAT KIND OF MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND A WARM CLOUD LAYER ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND 15
KFT YIELDING VERY EFFICIENT RAIN...IT SIMPLY WOULD NOT TAKE LONG
FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
STORMS WERE TO HANG UP AND TRAIN FOR EVEN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
AT THIS POINT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
WATER PROBLEMS WITHIN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH DEWPOINTS EDGING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL FEEL
RATHER STICKY TODAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. GIVEN THE MOISTURE TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY AND THEN HANGS UP AS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN
THE MODELS FOR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. NAM IS QUICKEST IN PUSHING THE
FRONT INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY AND CLEARING OUT THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION. ECMWF AND GFS HANG ON TO THE PRECIP WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. I EDGED TOWARD THE
FASTER NAM PROGS.

ANOTHER WAVE IN THE UL TROF DIPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND A DIFFUSE SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF OUR FA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NY AND PA INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE. MAINLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND JUST MINOR SFC FEATURE DIFFERENCES...PROVIDING BETTER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM TRENDS...BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE GRIPPING ONTO A
SOLUTION AND WILL MOVE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVING A VERY SIMILAR LOOK. NW FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD AS RIDGING STARTS TO RETRO FROM THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS
AND CONDITIONS DRY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL START TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY CUTTING
OFF BY NEXT MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL
LINGER FOR AWHILE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK AS PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB. ITS WELL INTO THE FUTURE...AND
THINGS MAY CHANGE IF THE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
CHANGES...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO OF THE TAF SITES MIGHT BE HIT
BY A BRIEF SHOWER BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING... THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z
ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH
ABOUT 13Z. CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
WEDNDESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA...AND POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS-FOG.

FRI THROUGH SAT...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...ABS/DJP
AVIATION...MSE


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