Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 041935
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN UNDER A BROAD STABLE CLOUD SHIELD THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED OFF TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

AREAS TO THE WEST FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NWD THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
SAW PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF 100 TO
200 J/KG OF BL CAPE COMBINED WITH SFC LI AROUND -3 WILL ALLOW THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT NECESSARY
FOR THE RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ROTATING TO THE N/NW AROUND
THE LOW...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EITHER END OR TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN.

A LOBE OF THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS ERN PA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS NE PA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND BRING WITH IT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE NE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WEAK RIDGING AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN
TO EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE DRIER.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS OUT EARLY ENOUGH AND REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A HIGH SUN ANGLE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
THE NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPR LOW AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW... WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND PA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS... HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION BY TUES
EVENING. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT OVERALL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN STARTING TUES EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON
AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD LIFT TO A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR WITH EMBEDDED LOW END MVFR. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR VISBYS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW ATTM TO PLACE THUNDER IN ANY TAF SITE. THIS EVENING THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING. EXPECT ANOTHER STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP... BUT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION DO
NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO BE STURDY THURS MORNING AND AS LONG.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU THE DAY... THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BY SUNRISE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURS & FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...KAH



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