Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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217
FXUS61 KBGM 122007
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
307 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AS AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND
WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND END THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL THREAT.
BY MONDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
SO IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL IF OUR REGION SEES HEAVY SNOW, MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR EVEN JUST PLAIN RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER ANE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING BRIEF, TRANSIENT MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, PRIMARILY AT
KSYR AND KRME.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION, SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT (AFTER
03-05Z), WITH IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
POINT.

ON SATURDAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH
PERSISTENT 25-35 KT GUSTS AREA-WIDE. KSYR AND KITH ARE LIKELY TO
SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ALSO LIKELY AT KRME, KBGM,
AND KELM. KAVP SHOULD HAVE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ



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