Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 241856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

AN UNSETTLED AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
80S FOR HIGHS. FOR A LOT OF US, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HOPEFULLY
WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS GOOD EARLY, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DIFFERS QUITE A BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL PRESENT WITH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWING PWATS (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES 1.5" OR GREATER.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO WHILE NOT PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT ITS ALSO NOT EXACTLY PERPENDICULAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
THAT OUR AREA OF RAIN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT IN A REAL HURRY
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MPE VECTORS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS, WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. THE
EURO LINGERS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING, KEEPS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN. I TRIED A COMPROMISE
WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (PER THE EURO), BUT A NOTICEABLELOWER
SHOT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE WEDNESDAY (PER THE GFS). NEW FRONT
APPROACHES FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP


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