Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 300628
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
228 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM UPDATE... SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE THICKER
CLOUD CANOPY SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. WE THINK THAT FAIRLY DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
HAVE ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 2 OR 3 AM.

AS MENTIONED BELOW, THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VALLEY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S STILL LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TAKING THEIR TIME
MOVING EAST, BUT EVENTUALLY WE EXPECT OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

NAM AND ECMWF EACH GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER THE SWRN
FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DISSIPATING WAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE FA ON SUNDAY.
CAPES ARE FORECAST AT ONLY 150-250 J/KG, SO INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OUT THE PLAINS WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, ENDING PRECIPITATION OVER NY/PA, AND SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING AND ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH. BIGGEST POINTS ARE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MODEL BLEND (SUPERBLEND) EXCEPT WENT SLIGHTLY
WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS BY UTILIZING WPC GUIDANCE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE LONG RANGE AS THE STRONGEST AND
MOST PERSIST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF THE SUMMER WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.TO START THE
PERIOD, DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WHILE WE DO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN
FOR THE LATTER TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING
THAT EVEN IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WITH HIGHS
CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...THESE TEMPS
BEING A GOOD 10+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT ALL SITES.

A MID DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING IN NOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT BGM/AVP.
GETTING TO BGM BY 8Z AND AVP BY 10Z. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO MOVING
EAST BUT WEAKENING AND BECOMING ISOLATED. ITH/ELM WENT DOWN TO
MVFR VSBY FOG BUT NOW WITH THE CLOUDS VSBYS HAVE GONE BACK UP. AT
BOTH SITES VSBYS COULD FALL BACK TO MVFR AT TIMES UNTIL 12Z.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT INCLUDED WITH RESTRICTIONS NOT
EXPECTED. SHOWER OCCURRENCES WILL BE BRIEF. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP.

LIGHT EAST OR CALM WINDS UP TO 14Z, THEN INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 KTS
FROM THE SW AND W. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC


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