Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 301036
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
636 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and storms are possible this morning before another
round of potentially strong to severe convection develops in the
afternoon. Another round of showers and storms is expected on
Wednesday. Quiet weather Thursday before more rain Friday, and an
unsettled pattern into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 am update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused around the onset of
scattered showers this morning...the initiation of strong to
possibly severe convection this afternoon...and another round of
showers and storms Wednesday.

A deepening upper trough over the Great Lakes and an embedded s/w
within the synoptic flow will supply the necessary upper level
support for broad large scale lift today. A weak surface boundary
will move in from the west and allow convective initiation to begin
along and ahead of this front. Warm air advection in the mid levels
and CAA aloft will modify mid level lapse rates favorably for
destabilization aloft. There is still some uncertainty with respect
to the sfc/boundary layer instability. A layer of low level stratus
has formed across a good portion of central NY and ne PA this
morning, and there is still some question as to when/if this will
lift and scatter out. The intensity and extent of the convection
will weigh heavily on this stable layer and when it mixes out.

An initial area of showers and weak storms currently over wrn
NY/PA is expected to move through this morning from sw to ne
and dissipate rather quickly as it moves through the forecast
area into e-central NY. These showers may prove useful in
mixing this stable layer up enough to begin the scattering out
process early. If that doesn`t occur, and the stratus layer
remains in place into the late morning and early afternoon. The
amount of surface instability will be rather limited, and
therefore hinder the potential intensity of convection later in
the day. The showers and storms are expected to develop and move
in after 1-2pm in w-central NY. The mid levels will become
unstable and if the surface layer remains stable much of the
convection may become rooted above the ML...and gradually mix
down to the surface...and slowly eat away at the stratus as it
moves ewd. However, if the stable clouds mix out earlier, the
convection along the front will be able to initiate in the
boundary layer and potentially tap into more
instability...creating more favorable conditions for strong to
possibly severe storms. Deep layer shear profiles and the
potential for up to 1500 J/kg of CAPE will allow storms to
mature and produce large hail and damaging winds along with
brief heavy rain. If we don`t realize that amt of CAPE, will
likely only see small hail and gusty winds. PWATs around 1 inch
will still allow for brief heavy rain into the evening. As much
as 1 inch of rain is possible. Either way, we`ll see storms
later today, it is just a matter of how strong they become. SPC
has upgraded our area to a slight risk with the latest Day 1
convective outlook.

A few post frontal rain showers may exist tonight into early Wed
morning, but the overall trend should be to dry things out...at
least for a brief period. The next s/w will rotate through the
region during the day Wednesday...and once again be able to tap
into strong upper level dynamics and at least a minimal amount
of instability. Lapse rates may be a bit steeper as a push of
cold air aloft arrives and a late May sun warms the boundary
layer. Deep moisture will be less, so the threat for heavy rain
should be minimal. The primary concern will be gusty winds with
these storms.

Temperatures today and Wednesday will be able to climb into the
upper 60s and lower/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
405 AM EDT UPDATE...
The uppr lvl trough axis will swing through the region after 00Z
Thursday and some convection may linger across the region at
the start of the forecast period. Thunderstorms will still be
possible through 03Z Friday, and expect showers to be out of the
area by 09Z.

The uppr-lvl trough will shift ever so slightly to the east during
the day on Thursday and the flow aloft will transition to near
zonal. The uppr low will then become stationary through Friday
morning. Anti-cyclonic flow will be present at mid-lvls and weak
high pressure will briefly build over the sfc on Thursday, thus
Thurs will be dry with temps below the seasonal norm. Sfc temps
will range in the low to mid 60s across central NY and mid 60s
to low 70s over NEPA. Temps will fall into the uppr 40s/low 50s
by sunrise Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
405 AM EDT UPDATE...
There is decent model agreement that showers will develop and
become widespread across the region on Friday. Return flow is
forecast to develop over the northeast and the uppr-lvl trough
that has brought precip over the region for a while will force a
cold front southward across NY/PA. Precip attendant to this
frontal boundary may linger through the weekend as it is very
questionable to how far south this boundary will reach. After
Friday, weighed heavily towards WPC forecast for our forecast as
discrepancies are high for the remainder of the period. Thus,
the chance for rain will prevail in the forecast as multp
shortwaves may pass over the region.

Temps during the forecast period will be slightly below the
seasonal norm.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low level stratus with fuel alternate to MVFR ceilings will persist
through 14-15Z this morning before ceilings slowly lift and mix into
the boundary layer. An initial round of showers and weak storms will move
through this morning and set the stage for another round of convection
in the afternoon. Still maintaining tempo groups for KRME, KSYR and KITH
with TS in MVFR conditions through around 22-23Z. Conditions are expected
to go to high end MVFR or VFR this evening before transitioning to MVFR
and fuel alternate ceilings after 06Z.

Gusty south winds this afternoon will become light and variable later
tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Restrictions possible from scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday...Generally VFR.

Friday to Saturday...Potential restrictions in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP/KAH
AVIATION...BJT/TAC



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