Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 190642
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 AM UPDATE...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...PRIMARILY FOR LIGHT GLAZE FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE...CURRENTLY RUNS UNTIL 7 AM FOR TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWERING TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY
GETTING THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT
-FZDZ OUTSIDE THE FLURRY BANDS. HOWEVER...SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY
WILL STILL HAVE -FZDZ THREAT BEYOND 7 AM WITH RELATIVELY MORE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING...AND SO WE WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXTENDING AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE ADVISORY FARTHER OUT
IN TIME.

LAST OF FLURRIES AND PERHAPS PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY
EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE.
TEMPERATURES BARELY GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S. THEN TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY STILL WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY ACRS SC NY AND NE PA. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP MORE
FOR SUNDAY AS PER MODEL GUIDC. FOR NOW HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY AND PC FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY THE WEEKEND HOLDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
CLOUDY PATTERN IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING
INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH
A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED
NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE..
MOIST CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A SHALLOW
CLOUD LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INTERMITTENT -SHSN AND -FZDZ
MAINLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR LEVEL
FOR MOST INITIALLY. HOWEVER...HILLTOP SITES KBGM-KITH TO EVEN BE
AT IFR-LIFR CIG AT TIMES THIS MORNING. VIS IN THE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP THIS MORNING MAINLY MVFR TO VFR. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT
5-10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH MON...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
NY TERMINALS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP





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