Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 240025
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
825 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL START
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
815 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS EXITING CWA AND NOT CLOSE TO SEVERE. DROPPED THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT TOO.
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING CNY AT THIS TIME.
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WITH
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK. EVEN THE STRONGEST
STORMS ON THE RADAR ARE HAVING A HARD TIME SUSTAINING. SPC ISSUED
SVR WATCH BOX...AND CONDITIONS MAY BECOME JUST FAVORABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
PRODUCE A COUPLE OF DAMAGING CELLS...BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS
UNLIKELY. FRONT EXITS THIS BY LATE EVENING WITH COOLER AND MORE
REFRESHING AIR FILTERING IN BY MORNING. VERY FEW CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH TRENDS WELL IN HAND AND LATEST SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE MODELS IN AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AGAIN...THE FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE CONFIRMED BY GOOD
12Z MODEL AGREEMENT WHICH SUGGESTS A NICE CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THEN APPEARS TO OPEN UP MORE ZONALLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE DIGGING OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAST MOVING WARM
FRONT...AND CLIPPER-LIKE LOW REACHES THE UPPER GTLKS BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER A
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT AM LEANING ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN. THUS...WE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY JUST BEFORE EVENING TO BLEND WITH HIGHER POPS HEADING
INTO SUNDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPS
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH LOWS UPPER 40S-MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FNT AND ASSOCIATED CONV HAS MVD EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVE. CAA AND DRIER AIR WILL CONT TO MVE IN BHD THE FNT HWVR LEFT
OVER CLDS AND SHRS WILL BRING SOME MVFR CONDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HRS. WITH THE CAA FOG OVRNGT WILL BE LIMITED DESPITE THE WET GND.
ONLY SOME BRIEF IFR AT ELM XPCTS DUE VSBYS. VFR CONDS WITH NW
WINDS CONT THU.

OUTLOOK...

THUR NGT-SAT...VFR.

SUN/MON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/TAC
NEAR TERM...JAB/TAC
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/PVN





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