Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 312338
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
738 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
LAST REMNANTS OF SHOWERS SKIRTING THROUGH ONEIDA CNTY AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND MLCAPES HAVE DIMINISHED BLO 250
JOULES. GUSTY SHOWERS WERE PRESENT IN THE PAST HR NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY THO CG AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS NON-EXISTENT.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS CLUSTER AS IT WORKS ITS
WAY THRU. THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL PCPN TO COME TO AN END
AFT 00Z. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES TONIGHT. PATCHY VLY
FOG STILL ON TRACK TO DVLP TWD DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLR.

PREV DISCO BLO...

2 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DE-AMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LAST OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED
AND/OR MOVED OUR THE AREA...LEAVING A QUIET VFR NIGHT AHEAD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS KELM AND
PERHAPS KRME. LACK OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COOLING
TO PROMOTE VALLEY FOG FORMATION AT KELM ESPECIALLY 08Z-12Z. NEAR
SURFACE LAYER AT KRME ALSO LOOKS LIKELY TO GET NEAR
SATURATION...AND THUS SOME MIST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...YET THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL PROBABLY PREVENT WORSE-THAN-MVFR VIS DUE TO
SOME MIXING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SCT
SHRA WILL DEVELOP IN AFTERNOON AROUND KAVP WITH THUNDER NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL
BUT ISOLATED AND THUS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME FOR SPECIFIC TERMINALS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT THIS TAF
PERIOD...VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SSW TO WSW 5-8
KTS DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ALSO...POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP





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