Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300924
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
424 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY WHILE
A TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL SINK INTO
NORTHERN OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN EARLY MORNING BURST OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THAT AS OF 4 AM HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. A QUICK INCH
IS POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING...SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING THE SNOW SHOWERS.
H8 TEMPS HAVE NOW COOLED ENOUGH TO HAVE MINIMAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...SO FLURRIES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SNOWBELT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP UP UNTIL THIS
POINT. THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN THE COLDER
AIR. GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT EVEN WITH A STARTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S...TEENS WILL BE ARRIVING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THIS DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF TEENS. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE. WIND CHILLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF
INDEED THE REALLY COLD AIR GETS HERE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...THIS
WOULD FOR NW PA. THEREFORE HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL ADV.
ALREADY SEEING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP ACROSS LOWER MI AND
INTO NW OHIO. HAVE A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF CLEVELAND...BUT WITH THIS TOO UNCERTAIN
AS TO HOW MANY BREAKS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...SO WIND CHILLS SHOULD
STAY CLEAR OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BEYOND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING STRATUS ACROSS THE EAST SCATTERS...BUT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS REACH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON THE SKY COVERAGE TONIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...ANY BREAKS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SEVERAL DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP. HAVE LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE DAYTIME SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AS WE STILL ARE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...BUT EYES WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30
DEGREES FROM NW PA TO FINDLAY.

FOR SUNDAYS SYSTEM...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTOR IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FIRST TO ARRIVE THOUGH WILL BE A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN OH/NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FRONT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SOUTHERN LOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN LOW HAS VARIED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF RUNS AND AFTER A SOUTHWARD TREND
YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED NORTH SLIGHTLY. GFS ENSEMBLES CLUSTER THE
LOW ANYWHERE FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO NORTHERN KY. TIMING IS FAIRLY
CLOSE THOUGH WITH THIS POSITION BY 00Z MON/SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE
RAISED PRECIP CHANCES EVEN HIGHER AS IT WILL PRECIPITATE ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A SYSTEM THAT PRODUCES
THE MOST SNOWFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 30.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR GETS DRAWN BACK
TO THE LOCAL AREA. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...BUT OPERATIONAL RUN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SINGLE DIGITS
BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR WEATHER...DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT
COLD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND THE COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY WARM FROM THE 20S ON TUESDAY TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 30
ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
DIPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY EXIT OUT TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW
CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING WINDS TO MAINTAIN
THEIR CURRENT SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SOUTHERN
JET STREAM STORM SYSTEM TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL ASSIST IN INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK OVER OHIO BY MONDAY EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012>014-023-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN




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