Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 222356
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT US OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS
TO COOL. COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IOWA AS OF 23Z.
ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE SO IT
APPEARS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FRONT TO GET INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY GET INTO NW OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THERE IS NOT ALL
THAT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE STORMS
TO PERSIST. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO GO MORE THAN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THEY MAY END UP BEING MORE ISOLATED
SINCE THEY WILL OCCUR DURING THE COOLER OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CUMULUS OVER THE AREA WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND THEN
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GET INTO NW OHIO AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 1
AM. MANY OF THE MODELS WEAKEN THE LINE AS IT MOVES IN. IT SHOULD
WEAKEN OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. WENT CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THE POPS ARE DEFINITELY IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME GOING
THAT THE LINE WILL WEAKEN AND BE SOMEWHAT NARROW AND THEN INCREASE
AGAIN AS IT MOVES INLAND. IN THE AFTERNOON LIMITING THE THUNDER TO
THE INLAND AREAS AND EVEN BY THEN THE THUNDER MAY BE GONE. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A SHORT TIME BECAUSE
OF PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND THE TROF ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF CAK AND YNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. SOME QUESTION IF
SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDED POPS TO THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS
WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE REGION FRI NIGHT
AND SAT WITH ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE LAKES SUN THRU MON. WILL
KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SAT THRU MON THEN
DECREASE POPS A LITTLE FOR TUE. TEMPS SAT INTO SUN SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL THEN START TO DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL MON AND EVEN MORE
BELOW NORMAL ON TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CUT OFF AND
CAMP OUT OVER THE EASTERN LAKES TUE THRU AT LEAST FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TO START THE TAF CYCLE. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL HELP TO
KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES
SE OVERNIGHT. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...WE WILL
BE APPROACHING 12Z AND THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR CONVECTION. FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH WARM ALOFT SO WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY WITH CEILINGS FALLING
TO MVFR AND EVEN BRIEFLY IFR AS THE SHALLOW FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT TO SEE THE SW FLOW INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 18 KNOTS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE LAKE WED MORNING
TURNING THE FLOW TO THE NW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE
WED INTO EARLY THU UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE
TO LIGHTEN THE WINDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD SET UP OUT OF
THE SW FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE
SAT...TURNING MORE WEST SUN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ADAMS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.