Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 220527
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
127 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY...
THEN STALL OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES IN FAR NE OH/NW
PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MOVING
OUT OF SE MI AND ARE NOW OUT OVER THE LAKE AS A SHORTWAVE HAS
APPROACHED. IT HAD BEEN MORE QUESTIONABLE. LARGER COMPLEX IS NOW
MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND WILL LEAVE OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES NEARLY DRY. THEREFORE LOWERED THEIR PRECIP CHANCES. NO
ONE HAS A ZERO CHANCE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FAR
NE OH/NW PA. STILL HOLDING OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH. TRUMBULL COUNTY
IN PARTICULAR IS EXTREMELY SATURATED AND THESE STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE LAKE MAY CLIP THEM.

NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO LOWS. STARTED WITH THE LOWS FROM LAST
NIGHT AND ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS GIVEN THE INCREASING
DEW POINTS SO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHOULD START WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST...PROBABLY
A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN TODAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT
AND THE WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTHEAST AND THE THETA-E AXIS PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED
FOR A FLOOD WATCH. IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING THAT OCCURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OHIO...PROBABLY NOT QUITE REACHING
EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH WILL
OBVIOUSLY ALLOW FOR A CHANCE THERE AS WELL. HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80 AND HUMID ALTHOUGH COULD BE WARMER WHERE IT
REMAINS RAIN FREE.

THE BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE LOW THAT HAS ENHANCED THE LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALSO LIFT OUT. THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MORE SUBSIDENCE. BY FRIDAY
EVENING THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THE
WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE MIDWEST
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH ANY LUCK...THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE BACK WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY WARM AND
HUMID. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A GENERALLY DRY TUESDAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
BUT ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

OUR FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF WARM
AND HUMID AIR OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AS OF 0515Z WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER LAKE ERIE AND OVER
INDIANA. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER A DECENT
PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A PORT CLINTON TO
MANSFIELD LINE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DIFFICULT WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT MANY LOCATIONS COULD BE DRY.
HOWEVER AT THIS POINT WE DONT WANT TO BE TOO FAST WITH THE DRY
PERIOD AND WILL KEEP A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION FOR SEVERAL OF THE
TAF SITES...MAINLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO SOUTHWEST OHIO WILL GRADUALLY
MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE...AND THIS WILL EXTEND WELL INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...BC






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