Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 270147
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
947 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
High pressure was overhead and will move off to the east on
Wednesday. A weak stationary front was over the Ohio Valley. A
weakening cold front will drop across the area on Friday. High
pressure will build south across the Great Lakes by Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Update...Updated wording to reflect progression of cloud deck.
original...High pressure will move overhead tonight. Plume of
mid/high clouds from a thunderstorm complex over the Ohio Valley
will cross most of the forecast area south of the lakeshore this
evening. I suppose a sprinkle from a patch of mid level clouds is
not out of the question in Knox County but will keep the forecast
The majority of the clouds will shift east by midnight or soon after
although patches of mid and high clouds will likely still be
floating around overnight. The clouds may keep temperatures in the
south a tad warmer otherwise we should be able to radiate well
tonight now that the dew points are lower. Lows generally in the
lower 60s, a little warmer in town. Lows in the 50s in the cold
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
We will remain under high pressure and between systems Wednesday
into Thursday. A weak cold front will sag south from Ontario while
various waves will ripple along the stalled front over the Ohio
Valley. Cannot say that showers or thunderstorms may try to
sneak into the forecast area on Thursday but kept the pops rather
The cold front should drop across the area on Friday and a weak
trough aloft will slide across the lower Great Lakes. There may
be some what better chance of showers/storms but will keep it as a
"chance" in the forecast given that it is a shallow front and the
associated convection may stay south of the area.
Highs Wednesday and Thursday should remain warm. Forecast highs will
on the warm side of guidance given the dry soil in much of the area
and the warmth of the air mass. Not as confident on Friday about
temps. There will be more clouds and just not sure about the timing
of the front. Forecast temps near normal.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
It will be a fight between high pressure at the surface to the north
and a trough of low pressure aloft as to whether there will be any
sct shra/tsra sat and sun. Will keep just a small chc of pop going
for the weekend as expect drought will likely continue and worsen.
The models differ on how fast the trough retreats off to the ne on
mon so will stay with a slight chc pop in the ese then go dry for
mon night and tue. Temps should run around normal sat thru mon then
start to warm above normal by tue.
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Debris clouds over the eastern TAF sites will continue to push east
and diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. Winds are
already starting to become light and variable as high pressure
builds in from the north. It likely that winds will decouple in
spots overnight, however due to the dry airmass and dry ground
conditions we are not expecting any fog development. Looking at
mostly clear skies overnight and into Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
through Saturday and early morning BR.
update...A high pressure system measuring 30.03 in is currently
centered over northern Indiana/southern Michigan and is moving
east into our area. The high pressure will diminish the winds and
waves tonight which will stay light and variable until Thursday
night/Friday. On Friday NE winds should set up at about 10 to 15
knots. Winds will become fairly light again on the weekend as only
weak wx features affect the lake.
original...High pressure spreading over the lake will diminish
the winds and waves tonight which will stay light and changeable
until thu night/fri when ne winds should set up at about 10 to 15
knots. Winds become fairly light again on the weekend as only weak
wx features affect the lake.