Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 251906
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
306 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will continue to weaken as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north of the area on Thursday as high pressure tries to build
back into the area from the east into the weekend. This will keep
the front north of the area for the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Starting to see some pop up showers over the southwest end of the
area. This precip is associated with an upper short wave that will
try to lift across the area tonight. At the other end of the
forecast area...the atmosphere remains capped and skies are
cumulus free. Expect the precip to expand slightly over the west
this evening. May even get some thunder as dewpoints have climbed
into the upper 50s. Better chances for precip will occur after
midnight...especially across the north as some slight cooling
aloft is expected in response to the wave. The GFS MOS is giving
categorical pops overnight. Given the airmass...coverage will be
more scattered than anything so will go with chance type pops.
Places like MFD and CAK may remain completely dry. Low temps will
be a lot warmer than this morning as dewpoints continue to rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than Memorial
Day weekend as a warm and humid airmass gets established over the
area. The weather will also be unsettled with precip chances just
about every period. Unfortunately the timing of the waves of
precip remains a challenge. Does not look like there is much
severe weather potential as there is no good forcing at the
surface. Expecting the cumulus fields to begin to develop late
morning with mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This
activity will be helped along by a series of weak impulses set to
move across the area aloft. Given the convective feedback in the
guidance confidence in precip chances and timing is below normal
today. One area where confidence is high is temps. 850 mb temps
will be between plus 16 to 18 most of the period. This should
translate to highs in the lower to middle 80s Thursday through
Saturday. If I had to pick a wet day right now...it would be
Saturday. Hopefully the forecast picture will become clearer as
the weekend approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level pattern continues to trend in the direction of warmth as
upper level ridge holds strong. Early in the forecast period, the
ridge begins to flatten a bit and flow across the northern tier
states becomes more Zonal.  This will keep a persistent Bermuda high
pressure system relatively stationary through the period. This high
will be responsible for pumping warm humid air into the forecast
area.  A dramatic change compared to a little over a week ago.

Early in the forecast period, some weak shots of positive vorticity
will rotate through the area and could support at least a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. So far, there will be an on and off again
chance for showers and thunderstorms due to the weak upper level
impulses.  However, will keep a mention of a slight chance of
precipitation mainly in the morning on Monday and we could salvage a
dry day depending on whether moisture vacates the area for a period.

Another upper level trough will lift north into the region Wednesday
and timing of this feature remains to be seen on whether it arrives
later in the evening or the day on Wednesday.

As mentioned, warm air advection will take place and this will cause
temperatures to remain in the 80s over much of the area through the
period. Lake breeze will keep lake shore areas a tad cooler as well.
Overnight lows warming up into the upper 50s and lower 60s through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
An upper level disturbance will move east across the area late
tonight and there is the threat for thunderstorms with this
feature. Expecting thunderstorms to arrive after midnight in the
west and toward sunrise in the east as the upper level feature
moves from west to east. Some lingering clouds will follow the
thunderstorms in the morning and then gradually improve to some
high cirrus clouds by mid day. Winds should be around 7 to 10
knots from the southwest through the period most areas but light
and variable in the west overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible through Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to remain quiet through Thursday. Winds will then
increase out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots Friday morning.
Light and variable winds will occur through much of the weekend with
a slight increase in wind around 10 knots for Monday. Otherwise,
not expecting any headlines through the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.