Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 290141
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
941 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
A ridge of high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes
through Wednesday night. A low pressure system will move from
Missouri to Lake Erie by Friday and to the Delaware Coast by
Saturday morning. Another ridge of high pressure will build east
across the area Sunday and to the east coast by Monday. The
next area of low pressure will cross the Ohio valley Monday
night into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Clearing line moving into NW OH with another hole over north
central Ohio. Flow off of Lake Erie has been enough to keep
cloud cover thickest across NE OH into NW PA. As winds become NE
it appears some low clouds or fog may fill back in across NW OH.
Confidence is not all that high that the clouds will reform but
something to watch through sunrise.
Only minor changes have been made to the cloud cover and
temperature forecasts to reflect current trends. Lows should be
into the 30s for all locations. A few lower 30s will be possible
where it clears.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Models are still struggling to come into agreement over the next
few days. The GFS is still the most aggressive with the moisture
and timing of the precipitation over the last several runs. The
GFS brings the precipitation well into the area during the day
Thursday while the rest of the models hold off until late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night. Will lean in the
direction of the slower timing and areal coverage and keep at
chance of precipitation Thursday afternoon in the west and the
bulk of the precipitation later Thursday night.
Low pulls out to the east Friday and pulls the precipitation to
the east with it by Friday night.
Temperatures are expected to be on the increase through Friday
as warm air advection takes place in advance of the low pressure
system. Question is, how warm will it get in advance of the low
Friday. If dry slot wraps in like some models suggest, then
there is the possibility that I may be under cutting
temperatures for highs.
Cold air advection takes place Friday night in the wake of the
low pressure system as lows drop back into the 30s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build over the area behind the departing system
on Saturday. Cool northerly flow off the lake will keep temperatures
in the upper 40s and lower 50s with low clouds trying to clear out
through the day. Despite some increase in high cloud on Sunday,
better insolation should allow for a warming trend to develop.
Locations near Lake Erie may struggle to get out of the 40s with
continued east/northeast flow but most inland areas should push
into the mid and upper 50s.
Upper level ridge expands over the area on Sunday with another upper
level low moving out of the Plains across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley into Monday. Based on the current model
tracks, moisture should increase across the region on Monday
with chances of showers continuing into Tuesday. Will wait for
higher confidence in track before going with anything more than
just a chance of rain.
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Low level moisture is trapped over the region as high pressure
builds into the region at the surface and aloft. Believe most
locations will remain MVFR through the night. There will be
areas of IFR across inland TAF sites. If northern areas can
clear at all overnight we will need to monitor for some fog.
Current thinking is that the opportunity for fog will be small
as northeast winds begin to increase overnight. However will
monitor NW OH closely with low level moisture off of Lake Erie
possibly assisting with fog development. This will all hinge on
the amount of clearing that can drift into that region later
Winds will become northeasterly for all locations overnight
with speeds increasing to around 10 knots toward sunrise.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing Thursday and continuing into
Friday. Non-VFR possible through Saturday morning NE OH and NW
High pressure will expand across the eastern Great Lakes through
Wednesday maintaining northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots on Lake
Erie. Easterly winds will increase on the lake on Thursday as
the gradient tightens between high pressure over eastern Canada
and low pressure approaching from the plains. Easterly winds are
expected to reach 20 to 25 knots on Thursday and a Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed on the western basin into
Thursday night when winds veer to the south. The low pressure
system will make slow eastward progress across northern Ohio on
Friday, pulling a cold front south across the lake in its wake.
Northerly Winds are not expected to be much more than 15 knots
with the front but the onshore flow will lead to choppy
conditions in the nearshore waters. High pressure will build
across the lake over the weekend.