Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280540 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS HAVE RETURNED BUT ARE QUITE LIGHT. HOWEVER...ABOVE
THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER...A LLJ OF 35KTS HAS ENSUED
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH NEAR-CALM WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS INTO THE METROPLEX TAFS.

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
GFS/NAM MOS ARE NOW GENERATING SUSTAINED 20KTS BY 21Z (3 PM CST).
WITH DEEPENING LEE TROUGHING...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THIS
MOMENTUM WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISHING VERY LITTLE. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS MAY
INVADE CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY
BEYOND THE WACO TAF.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
THE LIGHT MOSTLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING HAVE
BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA INTO THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT CAN BE
NOTICED AS THIS AFTERNOON/S TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8
DEGREES COOLER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS...FRIDAY MORNING/S LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS MORNINGS LOWS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NICE WARM UP IS
EXPECTED STARTING FRIDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEEPENS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS
OVER 25 MPH LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
TAP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
60S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70 WEST.

THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY.
AFTER A MILD MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE. THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW SPOTS REACH 80 DEGREES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY
MID MORNING MONDAY. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL A BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I-35 MONDAY.

THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WE WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THIS SURGE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COLDER. AS
THE NEXT LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START A MODERATING TREND. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT A RETURN TO NEAR SEASON NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
THURSDAY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  39  68  53  76  62 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              36  68  54  76  61 /   0   0   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             35  63  52  73  61 /   0   0   0   5  10
DENTON, TX            36  67  51  74  59 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          36  65  54  74  61 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            40  67  53  75  62 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           36  66  54  74  61 /   0   0   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         38  66  55  77  62 /   0   0   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            38  69  54  76  62 /   0   0   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     36  70  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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