Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 301733
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILLED IN BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHICH BROUGHT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
YESTERDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA IN ITS
WAKE...BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING FRONTS
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
ROUND OF MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ON ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...OR WELL BEYOND THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. 30

&&

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...TWO UPPER LOWS ARE ROTATING WITH
EACH WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IN A
FUJIWARA FASHION. THOUGH CONVECTION HAS EXITED SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA...WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS HOLDING IN STRATUS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES AND
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE ONLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER DRY AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AND ALLOW A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. EVEN SO...THINK CLOUDS HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION.
DRIER...COOLER AND SUBSIDENT AIR WILL BRING AN END TO ALL
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING.

SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND
RESULT IN A CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S.
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TO START THE MORNING AND
WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUN...SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES TO THE EAST IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY INTO A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND BRING INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS
TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD NOT BECOME
EXCESSIVELY STEEP...SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
NORTH TEXAS WEATHER RAIN-FREE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD FINALLY TRANSLATE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING THUNDERSTORMS BACK
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    76  58  76  59  71 /  10   5   5  50  40
WACO                79  58  78  58  73 /  10   5  10  50  40
PARIS               76  57  77  56  71 /  10  10   5  50  40
DENTON              74  54  75  55  70 /  10   0   5  50  40
MCKINNEY            75  56  76  56  71 /  10   5   5  50  40
DALLAS              77  59  77  59  72 /  10   5   5  50  40
TERRELL             77  58  78  58  72 /  10   5   5  50  50
CORSICANA           79  60  79  60  73 /  10  10  10  50  50
TEMPLE              80  60  79  60  73 /  10  10  10  50  40
MINERAL WELLS       75  54  74  55  70 /  10   5  10  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/05


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