Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 290425
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1125 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017


.AVIATION...
Low level flow has decoupled and surface winds have fallen below
10 KT at all locations. Wind speeds may increase slightly over the
next few hours as a 25-30 KT low level jet develops, but the main
concern should be an influx of stratus during the overnight
hours. Ceilings are expected to fall to MVFR in the Waco area
around 09Z, then around 11Z in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.
Conditions will improve during the mid to late morning hours and
VFR is expected at all TAF sites by midday Thursday. Otherwise,
any foreseeable convective weather during this forecast cycle
will remain either well south along the coastal areas or well
north in the Central Plains.


30

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/
The weather has been relatively quiet today versus yesterday
across North and Central Texas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have been relegated to sea breeze activity that
will remain southeast of the forecast area for the rest of this
afternoon into the evening. With mostly sunny skies, temperatures
have risen into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region. The
pressure gradient between a low pressure system over southwestern
Kansas and high pressure over the eastern United States has
resulted in southerly winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with some
gusts over 25 mph west of the I-35 corridor.

A stronger low level jet tonight should allow for a stronger
intrusion of low clouds across the eastern 2/3s of North and
Central Texas late tonight/Thursday morning. Skies will become
mostly sunny during the afternoon and highs will rise into the 90s
area wide. Heat Index values will reach 97 to 105 degrees
Thursday. A few spots may reach Heat Advisory criterion but at
this time, it looks like there won`t be widespread enough for a
Heat Advisory. It will be bit warmer (hotter?) Friday and heat
index values will reach 100 to 108 degrees. After an argy-bargy,
we decided not to issue any type of headline at this time.

As a couple of the shortwaves move across the Northern Plains, A
cold front will move down the Plains Thursday and Friday. This
front is expected to stall near the Red River late Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front and move
southeast across North Texas overnight Friday night and Saturday.
Some strong to severe storms will be possible along with some
locally heavy rain. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper
80s northeast to the mid 90s southwest.

Low chances of showers and thunderstorms will linger into Sunday
north of the I-20 corridor. An upper level ridge will build in
Sunday through the middle of the week. Lows will be in the 70s and
highs will be in the 90s to slightly over 100 degrees. A Heat
Advisory may be needed for parts of the forecast area.


58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  94  78  96  77 /   5   0   5   5  30
Waco                73  94  77  96  77 /   5   0   5   5  10
Paris               70  92  75  92  74 /   5   0   5  10  40
Denton              73  93  77  96  75 /   5   0   5   5  30
McKinney            72  92  77  94  75 /   5   0   5   5  30
Dallas              75  94  79  96  77 /   5   0   5   5  30
Terrell             73  93  77  94  76 /   5   0   5   5  20
Corsicana           73  93  76  94  76 /   5   0   5   5  10
Temple              71  94  77  96  76 /   5   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  96  75  97  74 /   5   0   5   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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