Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240829
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
329 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air continues to spill into
the region in the wake of Monday evening`s front, driven southward
by a potent upper-low which is presently heading into Illinois.
Exceptional height falls are ongoing, but the atmosphere is simply
too parched of moisture to allow for precipitation, although some
passing mid-level cloud cover will be possible this morning.
Dewpoints in the upper 30s have infiltrated the northwestern
half of our CWA, and these will continue to press southward
through the day. Continued cold advection will hold high
temperatures in the upper 60s across our Red River counties, and
in the lower to middle 70s elsewhere.

Northwesterly winds will pick up later this morning as we begin
to mix down some 30-35 kt flow just off the deck. The strongest
winds look to occur across our northeastern counties where some
sites may approach wind advisory criteria this afternoon. That
said, given the limited areal extent and rather marginal speeds
(sustained near 20-25 mph), we have elected to forgo issuing a
wind advisory at this time. However, should you be particularly
fond of any loosely or precariously-secured Halloween
decorations, you may want to take some precautions with these as
you head out the door this morning.

Winds will subside this evening as the boundary layer starts to
decouple and lingering cold advection wanes. While winds may not
go totally calm tonight, there will be good radiational cooling
potential under clear skies with dewpoints in the 20s and 30s.
As a result, some of our more sheltered/outlying areas may dip
into the upper 30s towards daybreak on Wednesday. These
temperatures may still be just a bit too warm to facilitate frost
development, but further decoupling of the winds may allow ground
(not 2-m) temperatures to fall to near freezing under a highly
inverted near-surface temperature profile.

Carlaw

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

After a cooler day on Tuesday, a warming trend occurs Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of another front that arrives Thursday night.
Northwest flow across the region on Wednesday will transition to
more westerly flow on Thursday, ahead of the next upper level
trough moving out of Canada into the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest. The base of this positively-tilted trough will swing
through the Southern Plains this weekend sending the coldest air
so far of the season across the region.

Westerly winds through the low to mid layers of the atmosphere on
Wednesday, in combination with larger scale height rises on the
back side of a departing trough, will aid in warmer higher
temperatures in the 70s to around 80s degrees. By Wednesday night,
the winds will become southwesterly with a weak shortwave ridge
moving overhead. Warm air advection, especially in the lower
levels of the atmosphere, will result in overnight lows in the
mid 40s to mid 50s.

Thursday will be a breezy and warm day ahead of the arrival of the
front. While some low level moisture will have returned to the
region, the overall moisture advection will be scant as the
southwest winds will not tap into Gulf moisture. Afternoon winds
of 15-20 mph with higher gusts, low humidity values, and above
normal temperatures, will result in elevated fire weather
concerns, but the status of fuel moisture will likely play a part
in if fire weather headlines are needed for Thursday. All of the
region did receive beneficial rain on Sunday, but a few days of
dry and breezy conditions may have cured some of the fine fuel
moisture by Thursday.

The cold front will sweep across the region Thursday night with
strong north winds accompanying it. No precipitation is expected
along the front due to a lack of moisture, but some light rain may
occur behind the front on Friday. Forecast soundings continue to
indicate a layer of mid level moisture moving across the region as
the base of the upper level trough moves into the Southern Plains
on Friday. However, the soundings indicate the layer of moisture
may be pretty thin, and the atmosphere capped above it. With dry
air in place below this layer, it will be difficult for
precipitation to reach the ground. Instead, we may see a mid level
deck of clouds with virga passing through during the day on
Friday.

Breezy winds behind the front will usher in cold Canadian air and
high temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be seasonably cool
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Winds of 10-20 mph during the day on
Friday and Saturday will make it feel a little cooler than the
actual temperature. Overnight low temperatures both nights will
cool into the 30s across all of the region. Some locations in our
northwest Saturday morning may approach their first freeze of the
season, but the winds may stay up a little too high at 5-10 mph
for freezing temperatures to be realized. Even if temperatures do
not reach freezing, where winds become lighter and temperatures
drop into the lower to mid 30s, frost may occur. On Sunday
morning, a few locations in our northeast around Paris and Bonham
could drop to near freezing.

Zonal flow aloft will return early next week ahead of the next
upper level trough, and temperatures will steadily warm as a
result. We could finally see some better moisture return next week
allowing for some better rain chances with the next approaching
system. At this time, the outlook for Halloween shows the
potential for a pleasantly comfortable day with near normal
temperatures, but possibly some light rain.

JLDunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1139 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/
VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Wednesday at the TAF
sites. A cold front moved through North and Central Texas Monday
evening. North winds at 10 to 15 knots will become northwest by
12z and increase to 16 to 20 knots by 17z Tuesday with some gusts
over 25 knots likely. Winds will decrease to around 10 knots
around 00z Wednesday. Only some scattered high clouds are
expected.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  45  78  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                73  40  79  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               67  41  73  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              69  40  78  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            70  41  76  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              72  46  78  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             72  42  77  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           72  43  76  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              74  41  79  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  38  79  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/90



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