Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 210838
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
338 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

Today`s weather will continue to be dominated by moderate mid
level ridging ahead of an approaching upper trough which is
currently over the Gulf of Mexico. With little in the way of
forcing for ascent and deep mixing expected this afternoon, we
should remain warm and mostly precipitation free. The only
exception may be our far east and southeast counties where a
little better moisture could lead to some very isolated showers
by late afternoon. Coverage should be less than 10%. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 90s again with heat indices in the
102-105 degree range.

For eclipse viewing...skies should remain mostly cloud free today
although RH values will be sufficiently high for some passing
mid/high clouds especially across the eastern counties and across
our far northwest counties. These passing clouds shouldn`t obscure
viewing across North Texas.

The eclipse will start around 11:40 am reaching maximum coverage
(75-80%) around 1:10 pm and ending around 2:40 pm for locations in
North and Central Texas.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through Sunday/

It`s looking like Tuesday will remain mostly dry across the
region, although we will hold onto a low mention of isolated
afternoon storms across our far southeastern counties as a few
cells try to build inland from the Gulf Coast. Our next cold front
will be entering northern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon, and
plentiful moisture and instability will be present to support
thunderstorm development within the zone of maximized surface
convergence near the front. At this time, it looks like any
convection of significance will remain north of the Red River
through late Tuesday afternoon, but precip chances should
gradually increase later in the evening and overnight as the front
slips south of the TX/OK border. Kinematic profiles near this
boundary really don`t look all that impressive, with very weak
flow (20 knots or less) present through the entire troposphere,
greatly limiting the potential for storm organization. Any more
robust cells ahead of the front during the early evening hours on
Tuesday could, however, deliver a downburst wind threat across
our far northern counties before nocturnal gains in SBCINH occur.
If a more developed complex can materialize and sustain itself
across the Red River, a strong wind gust threat could develop
Tuesday night, but given the aforementioned paltry mid-level flow,
this doesn`t appear likely at this time.

One of the main questions left to answer in this forecast into
Wednesday (and beyond) is how far south this front actually
progresses. Nearly all members of the 12z EPS, 00Z operational
ECMWF, and NAM drive the front well into Central Texas, while the
GFS continues to hang it up effectively along the Red River. Each
guidance system has not wavered from its respective tune, which
adds a degree of complexity and uncertainty to this forecast. A
front stalling near the Red River would spell additional trouble
for our water-logged northeastern counties as diurnally enhanced
waves of showers and thunderstorms develop and train over the same
areas. A more progressive situation as advertised by the NAM and
ECMWF would greatly limit convective coverage and duration across
North and Central Texas. While cold advection behind the front
certainly pales in comparison to our typically more robust autumn
boundaries, it`s not insignificant, and fronts have tended to
over perform guidance in this regard thus far. As a result, we
continue to side with the more progressive ECMWF/NAM solutions,
and show the best (chance) PoPs shifting into Central Texas during
the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe.

Regardless of the ultimate front positioning come Thursday, solid
moisture transport across the region ahead of it will lead to
PWATs once again heading above 2" in most locations. So, even if
precipitation isn`t widespread, individual storms will be capable
of laying down intense rainfall rates which could lead to
localized hydrological issues. If this front`s progress slows a la
the GFS solution, a more concerning flash flood potential would
ensue across our northeastern counties.

Even with the faster ECMWF solution, moisture will remain in tact
across mainly the western portions of our CWA into the weekend as
additional ripples embedded within the flow descend across the
region. As a result, we`ll keep slight chance to chance PoPs going
through Saturday and Sunday across all of North and Central Texas
as the unusual summer wet pattern persists.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1114 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
06z Tuesday as an upper level ridge maintains its grip on the
weather across North and Central Texas. South flow will persist
through the forecast period with southeast winds around 10 knots
veering around to the south overnight and then backing around
to the southeast by 20z Monday.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  79  97  77  93 /   5   5   5  30  40
Waco                98  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5  10  50
Paris               93  74  93  73  88 /  10   5  10  60  40
Denton              96  76  97  75  91 /   5   5  10  40  40
McKinney            95  75  95  73  91 /   5   5  10  40  40
Dallas              97  79  97  78  93 /   5   5   5  30  40
Terrell             95  75  97  74  92 /  10   5   5  30  50
Corsicana           96  76  96  76  94 /  10   5   5  10  50
Temple              98  75  98  75  97 /   5   5  10  10  50
Mineral Wells       97  74  96  73  92 /   5   0   5  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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