Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 241946
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
246 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016
Upper level high pressure will remain centered over the
southeastern U.S. through Thursday which will keep North and
Central Texas seasonably hot and generally rain-free. The only
exception will be a slight chance of showers and storms across the
eastern zones Thursday afternoon due to deep moisture, daytime
heating and a weak disturbance moving northward from the Gulf.
The upper ridge will begin to slide toward the East Coast on
Friday while an upper trough deepens and moves east across the
Northern and Central Plains. Increasing large scale upward
vertical motion and increasing moisture through much of the
troposphere will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Friday with the best chances east of the Interstate 35 corridor
Friday afternoon/early evening. The primary hazards expected on
Friday will be from locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
The upper trough will lift toward the Great Lakes on Saturday
which will leave the northern half of the country in nearly zonal
flow. Some weak perturbations on the western periphery of the
upper ridge are expected to move across North and Central Texas
on Saturday. These disturbances will be the catalyst for scattered
showers and thunderstorms with the highest chances across the
eastern half of the CWA where the best moisture will reside.
The upper ridge will creep back to the west on Sunday and bring a
slight decrease in large scale forcing and keep the best moisture
confined to South Texas. A few showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible, especially Sunday afternoon.
Upper level high pressure will slowly build over the Central U.S. the
first half of next week which will keep the entire region seasonably
hot and mainly rain free, outside of some low shower/storm
chances each afternoon.
We will continue to focus our attention in the coming days to the
Gulf where a tropical system, currently developing near Puerto
Rico, may intensify. The current model solutions differ greatly
on the track and strength of this system, but both agree that the
system will remain well to the east of the region through next
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/
VFR conditions will prevail with scattered daytime cumulus. MVFR
ceilings will likely impact Central Texas airports after sunrise,
but the cloud deck should remain well south of the Metroplex.
South winds will prevail with typical diurnal variations in
direction. Wind speeds will exceed 10kts this afternoon, but winds
will be noticeably lighter Thursday afternoon.
As a ridge of high pressure shifts east, the first in a series of
northwestward-moving disturbances will invade East Texas on
Thursday. The associated convection should remain well east of TAF
sites. But as additional moisture advection occurs on Friday with
another spoke of energy from the southeast, more widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 94 76 91 75 / 0 10 5 50 10
Waco 74 92 73 91 73 / 0 20 5 40 20
Paris 73 93 74 89 73 / 5 20 10 60 20
Denton 74 94 73 90 73 / 0 5 5 50 10
McKinney 74 93 74 90 73 / 5 10 5 50 10
Dallas 76 95 76 91 75 / 0 10 5 50 10
Terrell 74 93 74 90 74 / 5 20 5 50 20
Corsicana 75 92 75 90 74 / 5 20 10 50 20
Temple 72 91 72 91 72 / 5 20 5 40 20
Mineral Wells 72 94 72 91 71 / 0 5 5 30 10