Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 300128
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST ONLY
MANAGED TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
PEAK HEATING. THOSE STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
ANY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KMEI
AND KGTR. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE
TN THROUGH NE FL. A MID/UPPER LOW, WHICH WAS ALSO AIDING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS, CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BEST MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY, THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ERIKA DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS ARE
CURRENTLY DRIFTING WNW ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REGAIN STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, MID/UPPER TROUGHING
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.
/17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  93  68  93 /   4   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  65  92 /  10  10   7   8
VICKSBURG     66  91  67  94 /   3   4   7   9
HATTIESBURG   68  92  68  94 /   9   6   6   9
NATCHEZ       67  88  68  91 /   4   5   7  11
GREENVILLE    68  91  69  93 /   4   9   9   9
GREENWOOD     68  90  67  93 /   4  14   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


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