Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 291553 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1053 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING BUT THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY. THE REGION IS SITUATED BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE HAVE
SEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. TODAYS 12Z KJAN
SOUNDING INDICATED PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
OF 1.47 INCHES. MOISTURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO RETURN EVEN MORE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AREA RADARS SHOW RAIN AND STORMS
ALREADY LOCATED OFFSHORE AND THIS...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING IN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INCREASE OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS IS WHERE
THE BEST POPS ARE LOCATED FOR TODAY. MORNING MICROBURST CHECKLIST
SHOWED A RISK TO LIKELY CHANCE FOR MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON KJAN AND KLIX SOUNDINGS RESPECTIVELY. FEEL SOME OF THIS MIGHT BE A
LITTLE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNT OF DCAPE PRESENT.
AS MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...THIS SHOULD TEMPER SOME OF
THIS POTENTIAL SHOWN IN MORNING SOUNDINGS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN. GOING FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND
ONLY MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS MENTION FOR NOW
AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. /SW/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAKENING...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP ITS GRIP ON THE ARKLAMISS FOR TODAY...
RESULTING IN CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AS HIGHS AGAIN PEAK IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP A BIT TODAY AS
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER OVER THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WILL BE OVER MY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN STUBBORN AND ONLY NUDGE A BIT
FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS IMPEDING UPON THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION.  WITH THE ARKLAMISS ESSENTIALLY CAUGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THIS RIDGE AND TROUGH...DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE
NORTH NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF AND INTO THE REGION...BOTH
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND THETA-E
VALUES INCREASING TO 340-343K AT 850 MB OVER THE CWA BY SATURDAY.
ALL OF THIS...IN ADDITION TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT EMBEDDED
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO INCREASING UPGLIDE...BUT AGAIN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS DEEP MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER LOCALES MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THESE DISTURBANCE LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS "LIMITED" THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO.  AT THE MOMENT...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY LOOKS MARGINAL
AT BEST...BUT I`LL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SUCH CONVECTION AS
THERE IS SOME SHEAR TO WORK WITH... BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY LOOKS MEAGER.  THAT SAID...I`LL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE HWO THIS PACKAGE.  IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON A LATER FORECAST...A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE ADDED TO THE HWO.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CONCERNED...I STUCK WITH THOSE
SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WITH CLOUD COVER
AND INCREASING RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY...I LOWERED HIGHS ON
SATURDAY BUT STUCK WITH LOWS SUGGESTED SATURDAY NIGHT.  POPS FOR
SATURDAY LOOKED GOOD...BUT GIVEN AGREEING SIGNALS IN THE MODELS OF
THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...I
INCREASED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. /19/

LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION FROM A WETTER
PATTERN TO ONE OF DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY WHERE OUR REGION WILL STILL SEE THE LINGERING
EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE TROUGH. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
STILL AROUND...DECENT RAIN CHANCES ( MAINLY 40-50%) WILL EXIST. BY
MONDAY AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OFF THE SE
CONUS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND TAKE ON A MORE FLAT APPEARANCE.
HOWEVER...EFFECTS FROM THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE MORE SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS AND LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL...DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND THIS WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME LOW END CHANCES (20-30%) EACH AFTERNOON. WHAT THE
AREA WILL ALSO SEE IS A INCREASE IN TEMPS. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE IN THE MID 90S ALL WEEK WHICH WILL BE SOME 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TO START OFF SEP. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE DURING
THIS TIME (MON-WED) AND LOOK FOR HEAT INDICES TO PEAK AROUND 105
DEGREES. /CME/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  74  88  73 /  18  38  70  53
MERIDIAN      95  73  88  73 /  12  35  59  32
VICKSBURG     94  73  87  72 /  23  38  75  60
HATTIESBURG   95  75  89  74 /  43  28  69  32
NATCHEZ       93  74  88  73 /  42  28  77  40
GREENVILLE    94  74  86  72 /  28  39  77  70
GREENWOOD     95  73  87  73 /  20  37  75  59

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/SW/19/CME




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