Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 290616 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
116 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for early morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect for our southwest
was allowed to expire at 1 AM. However, a few strong
thunderstorms with wind gusts to 40 mph, frequent lightning and
locally heavy downpours will continue over portions of east
central Mississippi during the next hour or two. No additional
strong or severe storms are expected elsewhere but rain chances
will continue the remainder of the night. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Expect showers and thunderstorms to move through the area tonight
out ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows tonight will mainly be
in the lower 70s. The only change to the forecast was to increase
pops for this evening into the overnight. /27/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Monday (Memorial Day): As the cold front moves
towards the area, expect rain and storm chances to linger into
Memorial Day on Monday. As a deep trough and cold front swings
into the western Great Lakes, a lead shortwave will continue to
eject northeast through the eastern Great Lakes into the
northeast. This will continue to drag the cold front analyzed off
to our northwest slowly to the southeast. However, the strongest
forcing will remain off to the north, helping the cold front stall
up in the ArkLaMiss Delta tomorrow. This should help moisture to
linger in the 1.5-1.75 inch range. With vertical totals in the
26-28 deg C range, -3 to -4 Showalters, mid level lapse rates
around 6-7 deg C and some 20-30kt 0-2km & 0-3km bulk shear, there
seems to be enough to warrant leaving the marginal risk,
especially across along and southeast of the ArkLaMiss Delta
Monday afternoon. Updated the graphics and HWO to show the
marginal risk for severe storms. With moisture being slightly
lower, expecting the localized flooding risk to remain low. /DC/

Tomorrow night through the rest of the week: Rather wet and
slightly cooler than average conditions generally look to be in
the cards for the Lower Mississippi Valley through the period as
perturbed southwesterly flow aloft continues. The best rain
chances should be through Tuesday night or Wednesday as the front
moving in tomorrow remains stalled in the vicinity. Owing to the
mentioned boundary and better forcing expect showers and storms
through midweek to not be exclusively diurnal, especially tomorrow
night. Strong storms (and perhaps even a stray severe storm) will
certainly not be out of the question, but in general the needed
juxtaposition of shear and instability to warrant good confidence
in severe weather is lacking.

Once we get to later Wednesday, and definitely into Thursday and
Friday, the frontal boundary will be less of a factor on our
weather as it further weakens and generally drifts north of the
region. At this point daytime temperatures may be able to get
close to 90 in a few spots and with plenty of moisture in place
the combination of warmth and humidity will both promote some
sweating and build afternoon instability and trigger related
scattered afternoon through early evening showers and
thunderstorms. Looks like the best rain chances over this period
will be focused toward northwestern zones.

By the weekend another front will be approaching from the
northwest and boosting rain chances again. Even though persistent
rain chances through this week may start to get annoying it is
worth pointing out that we will be shortly transitioning into
June (and entering the season where one might think twice about
wishing away rain and the associated opportunity for below normal
temperatures). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

A threat for additional TSRA/SHRA will continue tonight through
Memorial Day with the greatest threat generally along/south of the
JAN/HKS to MEI corridor. Otherwise, redevelopment of lower (MVFR)
ceilings should be most prominent late tonight through morning in
roughly the same area with ceilings mixing up to VFR category late
morning/afternoon. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  68  80  67 /  63  50  63  29
Meridian      83  68  80  67 /  61  55  65  27
Vicksburg     82  68  81  68 /  62  47  56  30
Hattiesburg   84  69  82  69 /  63  50  65  34
Natchez       81  67  79  68 /  66  53  63  35
Greenville    82  67  83  68 /  56  33  36  21
Greenwood     82  66  81  66 /  57  38  42  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

22



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