Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 042116
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS AS A
COUPLE MORE EARLY MORNING STORM COMPLEXES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS NW
FLOW REGIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE THERMO ENV WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS AND DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING COLD POOLS
EVOLVE...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO EXIST.

WHAT IS LEFT AFTER MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS A WELL
DEFINED MCV OVER N MS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED EAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS BACK TO THE SW AND WEST
ALONG THE STALLED COLD POOL. INDICATIONS ARE THE PRECIP OVER THE SE
WILL PUSH EAST WHILE THE ACTIVITY TO OUR W/SW WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVE. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE
GFS/EURO WHILE OTHER GUID IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE. THIS SORT OF PATTERN
IS ONE THAT FITS THE OVERNIGHT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS WELL AS
SUPPORTS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE TRAINING OF STORM CELLS. MOST NEAR
TERM GUID SHOWS A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RECOVERY OF THE
THETA E AXIS A TOP THE OLD COLD POOL. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LL JET GETS ESTABLISHED. THE KEY IS WHERE MAY
THIS FORM. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PINPOINT AN AREA...BUT WE
FEEL SOMEWHERE N OF I-20 HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL. WHILE A SEVERE
STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE CANCELLED THE PREV FF WATCH AS THE THREAT HAD
DIMINISHED. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A NEW ONE AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE THIS THREAT AND
ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED. SOMETHING SIMILAR MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MON MORNING...BUT THIS WILL HING ON HOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON
SUN AND WE WILL EVALUATE THIS THREAT DURING LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE SEVERE STORM RISK...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INTO TUE
AS COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT CAN
REMAIN UNCONTAMINATED FROM MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...WILL HAVE SOME RISK EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT OPT TO HIGHLIGHT A LOCATION AT THIS TIME DUE TO
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HIGHLY
DICTATE WHERE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL UPDATE
OFTEN AND HIGHLIGHT RISK AREAS AS OUR CONFIDENCE GROWS IN ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION.

AS FOR TEMPS/WEATHER...POPS WERE FOCUSED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND MAINLY ACROSS THE N HALF. FOR SUN-MON...TRIED TO SHOW THE NORTH
HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUN AND I SHOWED CENTRAL SECTIONS COOLER AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP (SIMILAR TO TODAY). LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND AS WE HEAD INTO MID/LATE WEEK WITH 90-95 DEGREE READINGS
COMMON. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF THE TAF SITES SO
HAVE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED SO IN TAFS BUT TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTING. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS SCATTERED AROUND
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  84  72  89 /  77  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  80  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     72  85  73  91 /  72  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   73  84  73  91 /  63  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       73  87  73  90 /  42  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  77  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     71  85  71  89 /  76  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/SW/


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.