Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 121005
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
RESIDES OVER MY SOUTHERN ZONES JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR.  ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND HEATING ENSUES AFTER SUNRISE...BOTH
THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STILL STREAMING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  HIGHS
TOADY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.  LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

BOTH HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY COLDER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THOSE OBSERVED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
QUIET CHILLY AS THEY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND RIDGES BACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE
RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR REGION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA. OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL
INITIALLY BE NEAR ZONAL AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
RESIDES OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SUPPORT AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. THIS INITIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST STRANDING THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND SWING ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOKS LOW. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING
AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST RAPIDLY. MODELS DIFFER WITH ANOTHER
WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS STRONGER
BUT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER OVER
OUR CWA TUESDAY. DESPITE DRY WEATHER LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
LAT SHORTWAVE WILL PROLONG THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS LONGER AND HELP MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE PREVAILING AT MOST TAF SITES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...HAS RESULTED IN IFR/MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT KHBG.  AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES AFTER
SUNRISE...BOTH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      68  33  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     67  37  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   75  39  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       70  39  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    59  32  41  28 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     60  30  43  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/22


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