Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 010905
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)..."WET" WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
THEME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE CWA REMAINS IN A BROAD REGION OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE, PROVIDING CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DIVERGENCE WILL RESULT FROM BEING
SITUATED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET (EXTENDING FROM THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY) AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET (EXTENDING
ALONG THE GULF COAST). MEANWHILE, A SURFACE FRONT IS NOW POSITIONED
FROM EAST TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND IS MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD THE AREA.

FOR TODAY, OUR FOCUS IS ON A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING ACROSS SW
LOUISIANA. THROUGH THIS MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MORE ISOLATED/
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE
A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND MENTION OF THIS WILL
BE MAINTAINED IN THE HWO FOR AN AREA LOOSELY MATCHING UP WITH WPC`S
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE IS SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE SO EARLY
IN THE DAY, INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA,
HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, A BIT OF A LULL IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
THEN AS A NEW SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND MID MS
VALLEY, IT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED
ON MONDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. /DL/

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE ACTIVE STORMY PERIOD THAT
WE HAVE BEEN IN WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED TO OUR WEST
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS REGION TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH BOTH KEEP
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THEY BOTH SHOW SHOWERS/
STORMS SOUTH OF THE FRONT STARTING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVING
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THIS SOLUTION. RAIN AND
STORMS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...EFFECTIVELY
CLEARING OUT THE AREA OF ANY STORMS AND ALLOWING COOLER DRIER AIR TO
FILTER IN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WE SIT BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY NICE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH
MAY INCREASE TEMPERATURES SOME BUT OVERALL...THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER
NICE FOR EARLY MAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
AT SITES SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HEZ TO JAN TO GTR, AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS AND VISBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP
TO MVFR/IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER SHRA, BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT
PERSIST FOR AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF TIME. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  65  75  59 / 100  53  88  43
MERIDIAN      81  68  77  61 /  80  34  84  57
VICKSBURG     81  67  73  59 /  91  58  85  37
HATTIESBURG   79  71  78  64 /  85  34  79  52
NATCHEZ       78  66  74  60 / 100  53  83  41
GREENVILLE    82  66  70  57 /  45  60  84  18
GREENWOOD     81  64  71  56 /  52  47  86  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/28



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