Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 251142 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
542 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

25/12Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the
forecast period, outside of brief MVFR restrictions in
shallow/patchy fog few hours of forecast. Wind shift from
southerly to northerly will spread over the region this afternoon
and evening but average winds should stay below 15 knots. There
are hints at some light showers across northern Oklahoma this
evening but no restrictions expected with this low probability so
it will not be included at KPNC this cycle.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

Frosty morning across much of the region this morning, with plenty
of sunshine expected through early afternoon to allow temperatures
to rise above average across the entire forecast area. Very dry air
and warm temperatures will raise the fire weather conditions across
extreme western parts of our northern Texas counties, especially in
those areas that didnt receive appreciable rainfall. Similar to
yesterday, we will issue a fire danger statement where near-critical
conditions for exist for a time this afternoon. Fast moving upper
trough will pass over the region this afternoon and evening.
Although moisture is lacking in the wake of yesterdays system,
highres models are indicating enough moistening and cooling to
develop a small area of showers, and even convection this evening
across far north-central Oklahoma. The NAM and to lesser extent the
GFS are less aggressive but also have this signal as mid-level
thermal trough passes across Kansas and Oklahoma. Confidence not
high enough to make significant changes to going forecast but we
will add mention of at least sprinkles this evening from around Enid
up to Ponca City.

Deeper moisture return commences in earnest Monday into Tuesday.
With approaching long-wave trough, rain chances will increase late
Monday and especially Tuesday through Wednesday. Again, the
greater chances for appreciable rainfall will be over the eastern
half of Oklahoma. There will be enough elevated instability
Tuesday and Tuesday night to support atl east small hail with the
strongest storms. As the mentioned trough begins to eject over the
region Wednesday/Wednesday night, severe storm chances will
increase accordingly. With near neutral to positive tilt to
system, veered flow will yield the main area of rain and strongest
storms south/east of our warning area, similar to our most recent
system. Nothing is locked in yet given timing differences among
the models, but areas that are in most need of rain will likely
miss out again.

Above average temperatures and nil PoPs will dominate the forecast
late in the week into the weekend before another system impacts the
region Sunday into early next week.


Oklahoma City OK  63  34  64  44 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         62  30  64  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  67  36  64  45 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           61  22  64  41 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     60  28  63  42 /  10  10   0  10
Durant OK         66  40  65  45 /   0  10   0  10




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