Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 311158
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
658 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
The 31/12Z taf discussion is below.
Overall, a very low confidence aviation forecast
through the taf period. Forecast will be highly dependent on
evolution of ongoing showers and thunderstorms.
Expect a line of thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma to affect
KPNC this morning. Confidence was lower farther south near
KOKC/KOUN, so opted not to mention -TSRA for this line. However,
there is the possibility the west/northwest wind shift from the
storms could affect these sites.
Expect widespread -TSRA across central Oklahoma
(KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR), especially later this morning through the
afternoon. The highest probability will shift southward
(KLAW/KSPS) with time, but chances of -TSRA will remain even
across central sites through the overnight. Therefore, kept
prob30s through the period to account for this. Gusty and variable
winds will be possible in the vicinity of any storms.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
The primary forecast concerns will be storm chances and heavy
rain potential today through tomorrow and the influences of the
upper-level low the latter half of the week.
A complex of strong to severe storms have entered northwest Oklahoma
early this morning. Scattered storms have begun to develop ahead of
this complex. Today`s forecast will be modulated by the progression
of these storms. The regeneration of storms along the outflow
boundary may continue storm propagation of the complex to the
east-southeast. During the day, expect even more widespread
showers and storms to develop in the vicinity and ahead of this
boundary due to diurnal heating and the associated increase of
instability. Severe weather threat will be mitigated some by
numerous storm mergers/interactions. Nevertheless, forecast
instability will be sufficient for severe hail in the most
intense cores. Severe wind gusts will also be a threat where there
is sufficient cold pool generation (i.e., in larger scale
complexes). Heavy rain and localized flooding will also be a
Any surface boundary/effective cold front is expected to only make
slow southward progress due to relatively weak and nearly boundary-
parallel flow aloft. Widespread showers and storms are expected to
continue into Wednesday with only a slight shift southward. The
severe weather threat appears lower tomorrow, but heavy rain and
localized flooding will continue to be a concern.
For Thursday through Friday, the main forecast uncertainty will
be the impacts of the upper level low in Texas. The 31/00Z GFS and
ECMWF are in agreement that there will be a tight north to south
gradient of precipitation/cloud cover across the region. Elevated
instability decreases some on Thursday, so expect precipitation to
be rain with embedded thunder on the north side of the upper
level low. Precipitable waters remain elevated (>1.75"),
especially across southern Oklahoma and parts of western north
Texas. Therefore, the flooding threat may increase across the this
On Saturday, a cold front is progged to pass by the region. This
should end any chance of precipitation by Sunday with
cooler/drier air across the area.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 81 63 76 62 / 80 70 70 40
Hobart OK 80 63 77 61 / 70 70 60 40
Wichita Falls TX 82 64 78 62 / 50 70 70 50
Gage OK 79 59 76 56 / 60 60 30 20
Ponca City OK 79 62 77 60 / 70 70 50 20
Durant OK 83 67 78 65 / 40 70 70 60