Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 240835
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
335 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Seasonably anomalous southwest flow aloft (>3 standardized
anomaly at 500 mb) will continue unsettled weather, primarily
across western/northern Oklahoma and western north Texas through
Thursday. Ascent from shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima embedded
within the flow will result in persistent chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The chance of showers/storms decreases
substantially for locations farther southeast (i.e.,
central/southeast Oklahoma) where the flow weakens.

An effective cold front/boundary may enter northwest Oklahoma
Thursday; which may enhance the chance of convection. However,
southward propagation of the front will be relatively
slow/convectively driven as the associated shortwave trough lifts
northeastward toward the Great Lakes.

Effective bulk shear (>30 knots) and instability (MLCAPE >1500
J/kg) will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms--
perhaps with transient supercellular characteristics--late
afternoon into the evening both today and Thursday.

By Friday, mid-level flow will weaken (reducing the potential for
severe storms); however, deeper moisture and embedded lobes of
enhanced vorticity are progged to rotate around the mid-level
ridge centered across the southeast United States. This will
increase the chance of showers/storms across the eastern half of
Oklahoma, perhaps even into Saturday.

General mid-level weakness/lowered heights across the central
Plains will maintain shower/storm chances through early next
week.

Temperatures will continue to be near average through the forecast
period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  72  92  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hobart OK         93  70  92  67 /  20  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  95  71  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           90  66  85  63 /  40  60  50  50
Ponca City OK     94  72  90  68 /  20  40  50  50
Durant OK         94  72  94  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/10



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