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000
FXUS64 KOUN 040252
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS EVENING... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE
FORECAST. REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS WARMER ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THIS EVENINGS 00Z NAM AND THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER RUN. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SSOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OCCURING.
HOWEVER IF TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COULD LEAD TO MORE ICING
IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET. FARTHER NORTH... MODELS
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TREND IN KEEPING AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF THE BAND OF RAIN... LIGHTER MEANING THAT SLEET
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. NAM ALSO HAS TRENDED
LOWER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NOT UPGRADE ANY OF THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE IF THE 00Z GFS CONT WITH THESE
TRENDS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
WEDNESDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF WINTER PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. THE
WINTER PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD END AT
ALL SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE THE LIKLIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU STEP OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW...YOU MIGHT JUST THINK WE ARE
MAKING THINGS UP WHEN WE SPEAK OF WINTER WEATHER. NOT TO WORRY.
THE COLD AIR IS ON ITS WAY. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS
ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING
QUITE A BIT. PLEASE DONT LET THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER
FOOL YOU. WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NASTY WINTER WEATHER
TOMORROW...AND YOU SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
MAINLY BE LIQUID. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THIS TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS
NORTHER...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...KEEPING TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE ONE
THING WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...AFFECTING ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON TOP. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINOR OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH
MAY OCCUR LOCALLY...AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND COMMERCE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TODAY...SNOW
AND SLEET...AND THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC
AIR...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS...SIDEWALKS...AND VEHICLES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL FIRST BE FELT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AS SNOW AND SOME
SLEET ADD UP FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL
SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW FROM 6 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BEING
LAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...PROBABLY WONT SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WE WILL HANDLE THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A
STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS ADDITIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXPECTED
IMPACTS...PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SNOW AND SLEET PACKED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...ONCE WE GET TO FRIDAY...WE ARE DUE FOR A
PRONOUNCED WARM UP...AND SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE
SHOULD OCCUR...WITH IMPROVING ROADS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND...WE WILL BE ASKING OURSELVES WHERE WINTER
WENT...AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF YOU`RE LUCKY.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  30  21  37 /  60  90  50  10
HOBART OK         27  30  18  36 /  50  70  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  34  35  21  36 /  70  90  60  10
GAGE OK           21  24  11  38 /  80  80  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     23  26  16  35 /  50  70  40  10
DURANT OK         39  41  23  37 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$