Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 011127
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SSW TO AROUND 15 KT LATE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER THIS
EVENING AND A FEW STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA FOR ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG CAP. IF ANY MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER NIGHTFALL. A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR THE I44 & I40
CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK.

LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE. THEN...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A MORE ROBUST MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO OK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DIVE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
INSTABILITY...BUT FEEL IT IS OVERDONE BASED ON ITS TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AN MCS IS STARTING TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL AND SE OK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE SE
FA...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH. DECIDED TO LINGER CHC POPS A BIT LONGER SAT-SUN BASED
ON MID LEVEL WAA AND RH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST. OVERALL...AT LEAST LOW CHCS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY/NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVERHEAD EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR MOST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NW/N OK BY WED NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  75  92  71 /   0  20  40  60
HOBART OK         98  75  93  71 /   0  20  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10  40
GAGE OK           99  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     98  78  94  69 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/03/03


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