Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 061937
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
237 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN CONT TO BE WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SUNDAY.

SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED TODAY AND WILL AID ALONG WITH
SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER
TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM AND WINDY DAY AS SOUTH WINDS CONT
TO INCREASE AS PRES FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LOW. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE MAIN LOW OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTN. AS THIS
OCCURS A DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE CAPROCK NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. A FEW STORMS MAY TRY AND DEVELOP ALONG THIS
DRYLINE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER AND BETTER FORCING
WILL BE FARTHER NORTH. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF THE MAIN
BODY OF OKLAHOMA REMAINS DRY SAT AFTN AND EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BRING
BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE EASTWARD SUNDAY TOWARD
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER BY SUN AFTN. MODELS CONT TO DEPICT
SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY... BUT IT
APPEARS THAT OTHER THAN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUN AFTN NEAR THE DRYLINE AS
THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN OK SOUTH INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUN EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTN AND THE INITIAL
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING
THEY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY BUT THE SHEAR WILL
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH STORM MODE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN... IF A
LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING... AN INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LEADING EDGE
CIRCULATIONS THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES
MAY OCCUR.

YET ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL
FURTHER EAST AND THIS MORNINGS MODELS DEPICT THE DRYLINE NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY AFTN... WHEN STORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR.

A BREAK IN THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY... HOWEVER
VERY WARM TEMPS WILL TAKE THEIR PLACE AS SOME AREAS WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY COOLING THINGS DOWN AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
OCCUR... BUT SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. HOWEVER...
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN
AS MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF THE FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  83  61  78 /   0  10  10  30
HOBART OK         57  85  62  82 /   0  10  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  86  62  83 /   0  10  10  30
GAGE OK           58  87  58  83 /   0  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     57  85  62  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         56  83  62  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/30


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