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000
FXUS64 KOUN 232301
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
600 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Drier air will continue to work south across the area this evening
and expect most cloud cover to dissipate around sunset. However,
some concern overnight for redevelopment of some lower ceilings and
fog, but confidence remains low with this scenario impacting much of
the area. Models do show a return of low level moisture northward
around sunrise, which could lift to near the I-44 corridor. Will
therefore introduce MVFR ceilings at those sites along and south of
this corridor, including OKC/OUN/LAW/SPS. Expect ceilings to rise
and become VFR by midday. Otherwise a light winds to continue.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast challenge for this update focuses on lingering
clouds tonight and increased rain chances centered on Friday.

The effective frontal boundary that was associated with widespread
convection last night, has pushed well south into Texas. Scattered
to broken cloud cover persists in its wake over western and
southern Oklahoma. This will raise a few concerns with aviation
weather overnight (see previous aviation discussion). Otherwise,
the boundary will remain south of the Red River through the
remainder of the work week as the center of the surface high
gradually weakens and shifts northeast from it current position
near Kansas City toward the Great Lakes.

Concerns increase late Thursday night/early Friday as Tropical
Cyclone Harvey approaches the Texas coast Friday. At that time, a
weak shortwave trough translates over the central Rockies toward
the Texas Panhandle. Numerical predictions hint that some elevated
moisture originating with Harvey may become entrained in proximity
to the approaching weak mid level wave and lingering boundary.
This connection appears indirect and weakly forced in a light flow
regime, but would favor higher rain/storm probabilities over
western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.

Weather impacts through the remainder of the weekend and early
next week remains unclear and largely dependent upon the
evolution of Harvey, which appears to simply stall over south
Texas/Texas Gulf Coast. Some suggestions the remnant tropical
system may gradually lift northeastward a week from now, but does
not appear to impact the forecast area directly. Otherwise,
another front is currently projected to push south across Oklahoma
(possibly with convection) Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  84  66  82 /  10  10  10  10
Hobart OK         66  88  68  82 /  10  10  40  30
Wichita Falls TX  71  86  69  85 /  10  20  40  30
Gage OK           62  87  65  83 /  10  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     60  86  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         71  82  67  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/20