902
FXUS65 KPUB 141724
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1124 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through
   mid evening for much of south central and southeast Colorado.

 - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with wind
   gusts up to 60 mph the main hazard.

 - Scattered showers are expected through Wednesday afternoon,
   with snow along the mountains and rain and thunderstorms
   elsewhere.

 - A few thunderstorms may be strong to severe across the plains
   Wednesday afternoon, with the greatest hazards being strong
   winds and hail.

 - Showers continue Thursday, especially along the mountains, and
   finally dissipate during the evening and overnight hours.

 - Quieter weather expected for the end of the week and through
   the weekend, with active weather returning for the start of
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Generally quiet across the area this morning, though some weak
returns continue to slide southeast through central Colorado. Any
precip has remained relatively light with Leadville recently
reporting some light rain, and expect that to continue through the
morning hours. Fairly tight vorticity maxima to the north will shift
east today, as we become more westerly aloft in advance of a deeper
trough to the northwest. This westerly flow will allow some weak
impulses to push overhead today, along with lee troughing across the
plains. In this setup should see precip development by midday and
early afternoon, with coverage and intensity increasing during the
afternoon hours. Under this westerly flow and under initial clearer
skies, will see a warming air mass support above normal temperatures
today, with highest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the
southeast plains.

The overall risk of widespread severe weather is low today, however,
do think a few strong to severe storms will be possible over much of
southern Colorado. Once again, shower and thunderstorm development
increases through the afternoon hours, as increasing mid level
support and surface low development likely support a few more robust
storms today. CAPE looks to stay generally under 500 j/kg, and while
bulk shear values don`t appear overly high. That being said, will
see deep mixing and steep low/mid level lapse rates support the risk
of wind gusts up to 60 mph with any strong/severe storm. The risk of
large hail is lower today, however, where higher focus and better
moisture convergence occur, could see a storm or two capable of
producing hail to the size of quarters develop. At this time,
highest chances for this to occur look to be along and east of an
Arlington to Lamar line. Showers and storms will likely linger into
the evening time frame, but would expect the risk of any stronger
development to quickly diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Wednesday: Midweek will bring active and stormy weather to south
central and southeastern Colorado. A messy pattern will start to
materialize Wednesday as two waves begin to interact, though the
primary influence Wednesday will be from one of these waves as it
approaches from the northwest. As this wave pushes towards and over
the region throughout the day, flow and ascent will increase, with
orographic forcing also surging during the day. Along with that,
this wave will shove a cold front southward during the afternoon,
which will allow for areas of localized enhanced surface forcing
across the plains, and particularly prominent eastern terrain
features. With the uptick in forcing across the area, and increasing
instability, scattered showers are expected to blossom across the
region during the late morning and throughout the afternoon. Most
showers will initiate along the mountains, and be shoved eastward
off the terrain given the increasing westerly flow. Snow is
anticipated along the highest peaks of the mountains, with rain
showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. A few thunderstorms may become
strong to severe across the eastern plains given modest effective
shear around 30 knots, SBCAPE ranging around 500-1000 J/kg, and
DCAPE ranging around 700-1000 J/kg. The greatest hazards from any
stronger storms would be strong wind gusts and hail. There is at
least medium to high confidence (40-79%) of strong winds gusts to
around 50 mph given agreement between high-res ensemble model
guidance. Along with that, some of the more organized thunderstorms
across the plains will have the potential to produce heavy rain,
given PW values hovering around 0.75 inches most of the day. With
all of that said, as instability starts to wane during the evening
hours, showers over the area will weaken and lessen in coverage,
with isolated to widely scattered showers persisting overnight given
the dynamic forcing over the region. Looking at temperatures, a cool
down is anticipated for the area. Given the cold front passage, and
increasingly cloudy skies, much of south central and southeastern
Colorado will drop to around and slightly below seasonal
temperatures.

Thursday: For Thursday, active and wet weather continues. The
aforementioned interaction between the two systems will continue as
they phase to the south of the region. Despite the main phase taking
place south of Colorado, broad and dynamic forcing will continue
across south central and southeastern Colorado. This forcing, in
combination with moisture still in place, will allow for showers to
persist through most of the day, with the greatest increase in
showers during the afternoon as instability once again rises. With
all of that said, the highest coverage of showers will be along the
mountains, where forcing will be strongest and more focused,
especially along the southeast mountains. Finally though, as this
chaotic pattern treks to the east during the evening and overnight
hours, showers will weaken and dissipate across the area. As for
temperatures, another cool May day is anticipated. Given the
unsettled conditions, much of the area will remain near to below
seasonal temperatures for mid May.

Friday - Monday: For the end of the week and through the weekend,
quieter weather is expected to prevail, with an uptick in active
weather for the start of next week. Behind the exiting midweek
storm, overall more ridging and zonal flow is anticipated to
develop. Given the lack of major forcing with this flow pattern,
mostly dry conditions are expected, with the exception being
isolated showers along the mountains. There is potential for a
shortwave to be ejected across the area during the end of the
weekend, but there is disagreement between model guidance, including
ensemble model guidance, so details about this feature are as clear
as mud at the moment. If it were to track over the area, chances for
showers would increase for much of the region. Then heading into the
start of next week, model guidance is in decent agreement about more
appreciable troughing pattern developing, which would bring greater
chances for precipitation to south central and southeastern
Colorado, particularly for the mountains. Temperatures during this
period will quickly warm given the pattern in place, with much of
the area warming to above seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected at all three TAF sites
for the next 24 hours. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the area today. Chances for storms moving
within the vicinity are possible for all three stations, with
the highest likelihood at KCOS. The most likely window for
thunderstorms on station at KCOS will be from around 21Z to 23Z
this afternoon. If storms do move over station, a period of MVFR
visibilities and erratic wind gusts to 40kt will be possible.
Mid-level cloud cover is expected to clear overnight, but will
increase again tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR