Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 252347
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
747 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep dry weather and midsummerlike warmth across
our region through most of Wednesday. An approaching cold front may
finally bring a chance of a few light showers late Wednesday and
Wednesday night...with much cooler temperatures then following for
Thursday right on through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Just a few patches of high level clouds passing across the region
this evening from the south.

Tonight...high pressure will remain in place, while thin/high cirrus
continues circulate across our region aloft. Much like last
night...nocturnal cooling of our moist boundary layer and light
winds should result in areas of valley fog redeveloping across the
Southern Tier...while patchier/lighter fog develops elsewhere.
Otherwise it will be a very mild night by late September
standards...with lows ranging from the lower 60s across the North
Country and interior portions of the Southern Tier to the mid and
upper 60s elsewhere.

On Tuesday...Hurricane Maria will be slowly moving northward offshore
of the Carolina coastline...while a modest midlevel trough presses
from the northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile
our region will continue to lie in the squeeze play/ridging separating
these two systems...albeit with the main upper ridge axis sliding a
bit to our south and weakening slightly. With a little bit more in
the way of low level moisture available to work with and strong
heating of our very warm and humid airmass again expected...it is not
entirely out of the question that (as suggested by some guidance) we
could pop an isolated afternoon shower or two across interior sections
of far western New York...though with the mid levels remaining very
dry and possibly capped...will continue to advertise a dry forecast
for now. Otherwise it will be another mostly sunny and unseasonably
warm to hot day with widespread highs in the 85-90 range again
anticipated...with the warmest readings most likely to lie from the
Genesee Valley eastward...where supporting 850 mb temps will be the
warmest. Record highs for September 26th are 87F at Buffalo
(1959)... 89F at Rochester (1900)...and 82F at Watertown
(1970)...with the Watertown record currently appearing in serious
jeopardy and the records at Buffalo/Rochester likely to at least be
very closely approached.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the last of the recent summer-
like warmth for the region.  In addition, some areas will see their
first chance for rain in about 2 weeks arriving Wednesday with one
or two prefrontal frontal troughs and/or afternoon lake breeze
boundaries.  The front itself will likely be a dry frontal passage
for Western NY.  Expect it to ease into the region Wednesday evening
with scattered convection well ahead of it over central NY.

Thursday should be dry but with ample strato-cumulus under an
upslope northwest flow. It`s possible a few sites might see a
sprinkle or two, but the main story will be the ~20F drop in daytime
high temperatures.  While it may feel cool, the highs, mostly
in the 60s, will actually get us back our normal climatology.

Thursday night should be similarly dry with a continued drop in
temperatures resulting in lows in the 40s overnight.  This will
coincide with a surface ridge dropping from the upper Great Lakes
region into Western NY overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A sharp longwave trough axis and secondary surface cold front will
drop across our region Friday or Friday night as a more progressive
pattern develops over the CONUS. This will bring a chance of rain
showers and another shot of cold air advection. 850 mb temperatures
are forecast to drop to near zero C behind the secondary cold front
with a north to northwesterly flow over the lakes. Expect this
airmass to be sufficiently cold enough to contribute to some lake
driven rain showers behind the cold front Friday night into
Saturday.

High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 60s Friday
with even cooler temperatures expected Saturday, with highs
struggling to get to 60 degrees. Overnight lows will generally
be in the 40s, with the typically cooler interior valleys and
North Country dipping into the 30s by Saturday night.

High pressure will again build into the region late in the weekend
and into early next week. A warming trend is expected during this
time which could last into at least mid next week, with
temperatures warming back to at least 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, but not quite to the extent we are currently experiencing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Though mainly VFR flight conditions are present to start the 00Z
TAFs, valley fog will likely again spill across the KJHW terminal
tonight, with IFR or lower flight conditions. IFR flight conditions
in fog are also possible tonight at KIAG and KART within the muggy
airmass. MVFR flight conditions in patchy fog will be possible as
well elsewhere with higher dewpoints tonight supporting again
widespread coverage of MVFR VSBYS.

Winds will remain light through the TAF period.

Outlook...
Tuesday night...VFR...except localized IFR/MVFR conditions in
developing Southern Tier valley fog overnight.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR...with a chance of showers
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through Wednesday morning. This will provide a long stretch of
very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating conditions,
but not much wind for sailing.

A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday. Northwest winds
will increase in the wake of the cold front, and may bring a round
of advisory-worthy winds and waves to Lakes Erie and Ontario late
Wednesday through early Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR



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