Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221506
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE...AGAIN JUST OFF THE COASTLINE. REGIONAL RADARS ARE LARGELY
PRECIPITATION FREE THIS LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE COOL NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY STILL LINGER SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. ALSO IN A MOISTURE RICH LOWER
ENVIRONMENT THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINING A PRESENCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS. CONFIRMED WITH
REGIONAL SURFACE OBS...FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHT INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING
SHOULD RAISE THE LOWER CLOUD BASE SUCH THAT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE. IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...THE LIKELIEST
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL TOPS OF CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY
COUNTIES. LATER TODAY A LOBE OF ENERGY SPIRALING AROUND THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH A CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL NATURE OF OUR
AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE "WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINS SOCKED
IN UNDER IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CLOUD COVER...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS IS
THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FEED A MOIST NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPEN...WITH THIS SYSTEM
REACHING A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WRAPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO
BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TENDING TO DIMINISH TO SOME LEFTOVER
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUR CURRENT IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SLOWLY
LIFTING BACK TO MVFR/LOW VFR.

GENERAL MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY OVER TIME AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE PIVOTS WESTWARD AROUND THE STRENGTHENING
COASTAL LOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER WEST.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







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