Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 251457
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
957 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strengthening low pressure will move from Lake Superior today to
Hudson Bay tonight. Widespread rain will end late this morning,
giving way to strong to damaging winds, particularly northeast of
Lake Erie. A dry and mild period of weather is expected early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A deepening low pressure system near Lake Superior will continue to
track northeast toward Hudson Bay through tonight. The accompanying
upper-level PV max will track northeast into southern Ontario later
today.

Cold front surging through western New York this morning marked by a
sharp wind shift to southwest and a fine line of moderate to heavy
rain. A brief window of 1 to 2 hours of strong winds immediately
behind the front of 40 to 45 knots, perhaps as high as 50 knots.
The sudden onset of these high winds could result in the
majority of any wind damage and downed trees across the warned
area northeast of Lake Erie.

Interestingly, as is historically observed, forecast profiles
suggest an hour to two lull in the high winds is possible. However,
once the cold advection acts to further steepen the low-level lapse
rates and the synoptic subsidence associated with the PV max track
by to our northwest arrives across western NY, expect to see
clearing skies and increase in winds back to or close to high wind
criteria. By this point, winds aloft available for mixing down will
be around 50 knots. Thus expect more regular gusts of 50, up to 60
mph, will be observed across the Niagara Frontier over to Rochester.
High wind headlines remain unchanged, focusing northeast of Lake
Erie, however have expanded a Wind Advisory for gusts to around 50
mph to include Cattaraugus, Allegany, Livingston, Ontario and Wayne
Counties.

If you`re looking for the bright side today, other than the wind,
and the temperatures falling from the 50s late this morning, to
around the 40 degree mark by later this afternoon, you will at least
see some sunshine for a time this afternoon.

By sunset this evening, the stronger winds aloft will depart to our
east, and we will begin to decouple with the loss of daytime
heating. This should quickly shut down the wind event this evening.
Continued cold advection overnight will maintain a westerly breeze
across the region, with temperatures falling to around the freezing
mark overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The new work week will start out with fair and dry weather courtesy
of surface high pressure and mid-level ridging that is forecast to
slide east from the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic states Monday through
Tuesday night. The ridging and persistent southwest flow will
support temperatures remaining well above normal for late February.
Highs Monday are expected in the low to mid 40s and Tuesday climbing
into the upper 40s to low 50s. Overnight low temps Monday are
expected to dip into the mid 20s to low 30s but running a little
milder Tuesday night under southerly flow mainly bottoming out in
the low to mid 30s.

Wednesday into Wednesday night models show a weak surface low
crossing the eastern Great Lakes and subtle shortwave rounding the
mid-level ridge. A trailing cold front is forecast to drop south or
dissipate over western and central NY. This will mainly be marked by
an increase in cloud cover from north to south as synoptic scale
forcing is very weak but there will be a slight/low chances of rain
showers or possibly some wet snow over the Saint Lawrence River
Valley. High and Low temps will run a degree or two higher than
Tuesdays readings which will be about 15 degrees higher than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While temperatures will continue to average above normal for the
second half of the week into next weekend, there will be a distinct
day to day cooling trend. Along with the higher than normal
temperatures...there is high confidence that it will be quite
unsettled from later Thursday into Friday.

The main culprit for the inclement weather will be a newly formed
closed low that is forecast to track from the Midwest to the Mid-
Atlantic Thursday into Friday. While guidance has come into better
agreement with the existence and general track of this
feature...there are still uncertainties as to how far the system
will move off the coast by the weekend.

Thursday...an occluding surface low will be in the process of
drifting east across Illinois and Indiana. As the system moves
east...the occluded front looks to become established near and just
southwest New York. An anomalously strong southeasterly low level
jet in advance of the storm system will advect abundant (PWAT values
0.75 to 1") Atlantic based moisture up and over the occluded frontal
boundary. This will result in widespread rain over our region
midday/afternoon Thursday into Thursday night. WPC Day4/5 QPF
guidance shows 0.75 to one inch of rain during this process. If
additional rainfall occurs, hydro issues will be a concern. There
could be an occasional mix of wet snow across the North Country as
some colder air will try to advect into the region from New England.

The large storm system will pass by to our south late Thursday night
and Friday. Atlantic moisture will continue to be transported back
to the west by the anomalously strong and persistent easterly flow.
Upslope and residual frontogentic forcing will be the main source to
generate the precipitation...which will be weaker in intensity.
Colder air being wrapped into this system will allow some of the
rain to mix with or change to wet snow...but with max temps in the
vcnty of 40f...do not anticipated appreciable snow accumulations.

Confidence in the forecast will drop off considerably later Friday
night and Saturday...as the exiting speed of the closed storm system
will come into play. While scattered mixed showers can be expected
Friday night just low chc pops linger on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sharp cold front plowing through western New York this morning.
Front will be east of the area by 17z. Very strong winds will mix
down to the surface immediately behind the front producing southwest
winds 15-25kts with gusts 40-50kt. These strong wind gusts will
taper to 30-35 kts by this evening.

Finally, since the KJHW observation has not been reporting, we have
continued with a rarely used NIL TAF for KJHW. Safety concerns have
played a major role in this decision, especially given the continued
potential for low/erratic ceilings at this particular site.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong area of low pressure tracks northeastward across the Great
Lakes to the Hudson Bay today. This system will bring a round of
high end advisory-worthy conditions, with gale force wind gusts
possible.

After this, a moderate southwesterly flow will result in near-
advisory conditions across eastern portions of the lakes Sunday night
into Monday. Then high pressure will build across the lower Great
Lakes late Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-008.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-013-014-
     020-021.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ001>003-
     010>012-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/TMA
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/TMA



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