Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 280242
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND IT WILL BE WARM
AND HUMID THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
NICELY TONIGHT... GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE ERIE AND
WINDS GOING CALM OVER WESTERN NY. WITH SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT...
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ON TUESDAY... AND SHOULD ACTUALLY RUN
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCH FROM ABOUT +17C TO AROUND +18C. SOMEWHAT HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE PROMOTING
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S AGAIN ON TUESDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINING IN CONTROL...
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CU FORMING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
WEAK ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY CLIP
NORTHERN NY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES.
850MB TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
GRADIENT AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES A LITTLE
COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE
DAY...LEADING TO A HEAT INDEX IN THE MID 90S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED A FEW HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE BULK OF THE STRONGER FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS REMAIN WELL NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK BAND OF
ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NY.
DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALSO BE UNFAVORABLE...WITH THE COLD FRONT
ENTERING WESTERN NY VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NY...THEN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR FOR SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN NY BY AFTERNOON...WHILE
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND CENTRAL NY.

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES WITH CLEARING SKIES. A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS
AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION AND BRING ANOTHER SUNNY SUMMER DAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES ON THURSDAY IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND AROUND 80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ESE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. EACH OF THESE WEAK
FEATURES WILL CARRY WITH IT A PERIOD OF WEAK ASCENT AND A MARGINAL
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

BY MONDAY A MORE WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BETTER CHANCE AT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE MID SUMMER HEAT OF LATE APPEARS
TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST BY AROUND AUGUST 5TH...THEN DEEPENING BY AROUND AUGUST
7TH. IF THIS VERIFIES IT WOULD BRING A TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE SECOND WEEK IN AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FORM
OVERNIGHT

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/LEVAN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN


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