Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291027
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK
TO PAYSON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
&&

.DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD ACROSS NRN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY WINDOW ROCK TO PAYSON...THOUGH SOME SFC
DEW POINT JUMPS ARE NOTED AT SEDONA AND PRESCOTT. FOR
TODAY...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WINDOW ROCK TO PAYSON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40. THE NORTHERN HALVES OF COCONINO AND NAVAJO COUNTIES
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PROGS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PHX AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACROSS SRN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES THIS
EVENING.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. PW VALUES INCREASE SHARPLY
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN LEVEL OUT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUS PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THESE DAYS AND SOME
HEAVY RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES THEN DROP TO CLIMO VALUES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KSEZ-KSJN LINE...WITH PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER 17Z...MOST NUMEROUS SE OF A
KPAN-KRQE LINE...WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS NEAR
STRONGER STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY SE OF A KFLG-KRQE LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT LEADING TO
GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY.
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION / FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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