Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 280417
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
917 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY IS MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE. MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO COVER CURRENT
CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /205 PM MST/...THE LARGE AREA OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER  ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING
EASTWARD THIS  AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY ALREADY AND THIS CLEARING TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. LIGHT
WESTERLY  FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
NEARLY ALL THE  AREA. ON FRIDAY, STRONGER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEST COAST WITH  ONE FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. THIS  COULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS
AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AND MOGOLLON RIM AS THIS AREA IS ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME INCREASING WIND MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
AT THIS TIME.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/41
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...KD



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