Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 272222

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
322 PM MST WED JUL 27 2016

The high pressure ridge is building westward andwill begin
limiting the monsoon moisture moving up into northernArizona. This
will lead to drier conditions over Northern Arizonathrough the
rest of the work week. Isolated to scattered showerswill develop
across the higher terrain. The Drier air will lead tohot
temperatures in the Grand Canyon region through at leastThursday.
Another Monsoon moisture surge is forecast to start thisweekend
with increasing chances for showers and thunderstormsthrough the
weekend with storm activity lasting into next week.



The next few days will see a trend towards drying conditions as the
subtropical ridge moves westward and stears the moisture away
fromNorthern Arizona through the weekend. This shift will allow
forfewer showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours, along
withgustier outflow winds, higher temepratures, and clearier
skiesovernight. Because of the increase in temperatures, an
excessiveheat warning is in effect for the grand canyon region
today throughThursday. Conditions will begin to return to cooler
and wettervalues saturday and sunday as the next moisture surge
moves into thearea as a tropical easterly wave moves across Mexico
and into thePacific.

There is some concern that moisture levels may climb high enough to
limit convection. This would occur due to mid level stratiform
cloudcover limiting solar insolation and reducing surface heating
belowthe temperature necessary to trigger convective initiation.


.AVIATION...For the 00z Package. Expect mostly VFR conditions with
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible until around 02Z. ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA/-
TSRA after 18Z Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ005-006.




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