Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240326
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
825 PM MST TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THURSDAY. FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS...LOWER WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS LOW TEMPS FOR HIGH ELEVATION SITES PER THIS MORNINGS VALUES
AND END STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS
EVENING SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWS LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A
DRY PROFILE AND VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL LIMIT DEPTH
OF CONVECTION AND AREAL COVERAGE. THUS ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THURSDAY.

PROGS COMING TOGETHER IN SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN EXPECT
COOLER MAX TEMPS TEMPS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER MOVING THE
LOW OUT ON SUNDAY THAN THE LATEST GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MTNS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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