Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031643
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
943 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE SOME DRYING HAS OCCURRED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 30`S TO UPPER 40`S ARE IN PLACE ROUGHLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-PAGE. TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE,
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 50F.

THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF MEASURED 0.58
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER, THIS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
MEASURED YESTERDAY MORNING. MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REVEAL VERY LITTLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA. BETTER INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO THE EAST, WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE.

THIS MORNINGS HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN GILA, AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT OUTFLOWS
FROM ACTIVITY ORIGINATING IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA COULD TRIGGER NEW
ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /425 AM MST/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MOST FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH LOWER STORM CHANCES CONTINUING
ELSEWHERE. AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW WILL TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF KEEPS MOISTURE MUCH MORE LIMITED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHILE THE GFS IS MORE FAVORABLE TO
RETURNING STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A PAYSON-
WINSLOW-KAYENTA LINE. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOD/HVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY STORM
OUTFLOWS TO 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/KD
AVIATION...CLM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.