Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 300314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
814 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Strong southwest winds will develop Thursday
afternoon and continue into the evening ahead of a storm system.
The cold front will push east across the state late Thursday night
through Friday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Snow
levels will fall to 4500 to 5500 feet behind the cold front late
Thursday night into Friday, with only light accumulations for most
areas. The chance of showers will linger over eastern Arizona
through Saturday, then improving conditions return Sunday.


.UPDATE...High pressure across the region this evening has lead to
quiet weather and mostly clear skies. No forecast updates are
needed. The biggest weather concern continues to be increased
wind Thursday into Friday morning...please see the discussion
below for details.


.PREV DISCUSSION /327 PM MST/...After a breezy morning, winds have
started to diminish this afternoon and temperatures have warmed to
above average levels. Winds will be light overnight with
seasonable low temperatures. On Thursday, a deep low pressure
system will approach through the day with increasing winds. Winds
will peak just ahead of the cold front, mid afternoon to early
evening for NW Arizona, around mid evening for central portions
including Flagstaff, then late evening for eastern Arizona. A High
Wind Warning was issued for NW Coconino county including Grand
Canyon where gusts near 60 mph are likely. Farther east, a Wind
Advisory was issued for most of the remainder of northern Arizona.
A few gusts could hit warning criteria. Winds are likely to
remain strong over far east-central Arizona through Friday
morning so the advisory continues there until 10 AM Friday. Some
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop along the cold
front Thursday evening and overnight, with snow levels falling
rapidly as the front passes, down to 4500-5500 feet. Moisture
appears limited so only looking at light snowfall amounts for
locations above 6000 ft, though there could be a couple inches or
more on the Kaibab Plateau & Black Mesa. The low is a slow mover,
drifting to near four corners Friday, then into New Mexico by
Saturday. Scattered showers are expected at times into Saturday,
mainly over the northern third of Arizona with decreasing chances
farther south.

A brief break in the weather is forecast for Sunday, then another
trough will approach by Monday or Tuesday. This one looks mainly
like another wind event as it is currently forecast to track a bit
farther north, with only a slight chance of showers at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect VFR conditions through the
next 24 hours. Light winds through 16Z. After 16Z...strong southwest
winds will develop with sustained speeds of 20 to 30 kt gusting to
as high as 45 kt. Some localized blowing dust could develop during
the afternoon over valley locations, especially the Little Colorado
River valley in the vicinity of Winslow. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.



Wind Advisory from noon to 11 PM MST Thursday FOR

Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM MST Thursday FOR

Wind Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 10 AM MST Friday FOR

High Wind Warning from noon to 8 PM MST Thursday FOR




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