Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 260352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
852 PM MST Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Windy and cooler conditions are forecast across
northern Arizona on Friday. Less wind and a warming trend are in
the cards this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
Slight chances for afternoon thunderstorms start Monday in the
White Mountains and expand eastward for Tuesday.


Very windy today across northern AZ, the peak wind gust was 49
mph at Two Guns. Very dry as well, with several locations at 10
percent or less RH during the afternoon and evening.

The start time for Fridays wind advisory for southern Apache
county was changed from noon to 8 am. GFS model data (and a few
others) show the fastest boundary layer and sfc winds over the
advisory area during the morning hours, and with sunrise by 530
am we will have a couple of hours of heating/mixing underway by 8

Saturday still looks good. The GFS and ECMWF continue to show
moisture riding northward along the AZ NM border Sunday and
spreading westward Monday. Afternoon thunderstorm chances are
in the forecast now.


.PREV DISCUSSION /335 PM MST/...Northern Arizona remains in a dry
and windy weather pattern today with a broad trough of low
pressure encompassing much of the western U.S. The trough axis
will gradually rotate through the Great Basin today through
Friday keeping us dry and breezy. Many areas today along and
north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains have already
reported wind gusts in the 40 to 50 MPH range. These winds will
continue through the evening, beginning to subside after sunset.
Local areas downwind of the San Francisco Peaks and White
Mountains will likely see windy conditions continue overnight.
It`s possible a few cloud build ups this afternoon could produce
some sprinkles along the Utah border.

The stronger winds on Friday will shift to eastern Arizona where
another Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory have been issued. By
Saturday, the trough axis finally moves through Arizona while high
pressure builds in quickly from the west. Pressure gradients
weaken substantially allowing for much lighter winds over the
weekend. Temperatures will also climb back to above average.

Some moisture is expected to sneak into Arizona from the east by
early next week introducing the chance for afternoon thunderstorms
each day. Still unsure of the western extent of the moisture and
associated thunderstorms, so this will be something to watch over
the coming days.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue
over northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. Sfc winds S_SW 5-15kt
through 15z Fri, increasing to 15-30kt gusts 25-45kt. Fastest
winds across southern Apache county. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Windy and cooler conditions will develop Friday.
Critical fire weather conditions will develop primarily over the
Little Colorado River Valley in central Navajo and Apache counties
Friday afternoon.  Winds will subside substantially Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
Sunday. There is a chance for thunderstorms over Apache County
Monday, with better chances for thunderstorms over all of northern
Arizona Tuesday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ111-113-

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ014-017.




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