Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232210
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN AS A STRONG LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE. THE BULK OF THE STORM TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A VERY COLD
LATE SEASON STORM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FOR S-SW WINDS 20-30 MPH W/ GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND THE
FASTEST SPEEDS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROGS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW
THROUGH ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD. WE ARE EXPECTING A COMMA SHAPED
CLOUD FEATURE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. A NORTH
TO SOUTH ALIGNED WARM CONVEYOR/COLD FRONT (CONTAINING MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS) TO BE MOVING INTO WESTERN AZ AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG A LINE FROM PAGE TO PAYSON AROUND NOON
SATURDAY...AND REACHING THE NEW MEXICO LINE BY 6 PM SAT. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE MODEL
QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET...THE WARM
GROUND SHOULD REDUCE ACCUMULATIONS AS WILL CLOUD COVER BREAKS BEHIND
THE FRONT. FALLING SNOW WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY TRAVEL SATURDAY ABOVE
6000-6500 FEET DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES FOR SURE AND POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD. CHECK FUTURE FORECASTS FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT 3-6 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET.
NOT SURE YET ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS BTWN 6000-8000 FEET.

AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SHOULD SEE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
.40 -.75 OF AN INCH. WIND SHEAR AND COLD TEMPERATURES (-27C AT H5)
WITH THIS STORM WILL ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THESE ARE
TIMED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND.

ON SUNDAY....LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. FAST NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS TO ALL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 24
HOUR FCST PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...BCMG SW10-15G20-25KT
AFT 24/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY...A WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ105-109-110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











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