Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 050938
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
238 AM MST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY TO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY IS A
TRANSITION DAY TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A VEIL OF CIRRUS ACROSS COCONINO AND
YAVAPAI COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE TOWARDS
ARIZONA FROM THE WEST. AREA RADAR VELOCITY PRODUCTS SHOWING LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALREADY SSE AROUND 40KTS. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY
FOR WESTERN ARIZONA LOOKS GOOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-35 MPH AND
GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. A MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER, AND ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO 7000 FT OR JUST BELOW AT TIMES WHICH INCLUDES
FLAGSTAFF.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS ARE MOVING THE LOW EAST OF STATE WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 7500 FT OR HIGHER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE, DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING.

MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY TO WARMER AND DRY WEATHER.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN
TO SOUTH AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 40 KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BELOW 6000 FEET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
 &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ004>008-012-015.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ105-108-109-112>114-118-137-140.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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