Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310934
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OVER THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY
DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE AND STABILITY. MODELS SHOWING SOME COOLING
IN THE MID LEVELS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN DURING THE NIGHTTIME FOR
SOME MENTION OF VERY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY.

OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NEW
MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH/LOW COUPLET WILL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND
PRODUCE A MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IN FACT...MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF ORGANIZED UPWARD
MOTION...ESPECIALLY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SOMEWHAT RARE FOR
THE MONSOON PERIOD. WHILE THE MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TOO
HIGH A GENERALLY DAMP FORECAST MAY BE RIGHT ON IF THE ORGANIZED
UPWARD MOTION MATERIALIZES (ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY). MAKE SURE AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THE WEEKEND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...THOUGH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE  EXPECTED...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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