Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 181124 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
624 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today and tonight, with
clear to partly cloudy skies. South winds will increase to 10-15
knots at KABI and KSJT by 15-16Z, with occasional gusts to around
20 knots. At KJCT and KBBD, light south winds will increase to
near 10 knots by midday. A few high clouds will move over the
area today and tonight. Patchy low cloud development is possible
by early Thursday morning along the I-10 corridor, potentially
affecting KJCT and KSOA with brief MVFR ceilings. With limited
confidence in occurrence and timing at the end of this TAF
forecast period, not including a mention at this time. Will
monitor subsequent model data, however, for possible inclusion
in later TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A shortwave upper ridge over Texas and the southern Plains today
will shift east into Louisiana and Arkansas tonight, as a shortwave
trough approaches Texas from the west. Our area will have a warming
trend in temperatures as south winds continue. With sunny skies
today, highs will be be in the lower to mid 80s. With surface
pressure gradient a little tighter, wind speeds will be a little
higher today across our area. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, with
clear to partly cloudy skies. The cooler readings (lower 50s) are
expected in low-lying areas and along river valleys of some of our
eastern and southern counties, where winds will once again become
light. With an increase in low-level moisture overnight, patchy low
cloud cover may develop over our far southern counties along the
I-10 corridor by early Thursday morning.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Warm again on Wednesday, although perhaps a couple degrees cooler
than today as low level moisture and cloud cover increases. Models
continue to show an upper level trough developing and swinging
across West Central Texas by late Thursday into Friday. Enough
lift to generate at least some isolated showers and storms and
have once again expanded the coverage area expected.

Stronger trough and an associated cold front will begin to
approach the area by Saturday afternoon, with the best chanced for
convection Saturday Night. GFS has come in wetter on the 00Z run,
while the 00Z keeps most of the showers and storms across the
eastern counties east into Central Texas. IN either case, best ran
chances will be across the Heartland, Hill Country, and eastern
Big Country with decreasing chances as you move west.

Temperatures behind the front for early next week will be a little
cooler, pretty close to seasonal normals with highs in the mid and
upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  57  80  63 /   0   0   0  20
San Angelo  84  55  81  62 /   0   0   0  20
Junction  84  52  80  63 /   0   0   5  20
Brownwood  84  53  81  62 /   0   0   0  20
Sweetwater  83  57  80  62 /   0   0   0  20
Ozona       81  54  79  62 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: 07


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