Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 300221 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
921 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017


.UPDATE...

As of 9 PM, the San Angelo WSR-88D radar shows light returns
entering far western counties. This activity is tied to the main
lift ahead of the upper trough axis and this lift will progress
east across the area overnight. Latest Hi-Res model data shows
only light precipitation overnight, with the best chance for
showers/isolated thunder across northern and eastern sections
of the forecast area. POPs were lowered slighty this update, with
low end chance for the rest of the night (30 to 40 percent).
Precipitation amounts are expected to be light, with most areas
seeing between a trace and a couple tenths of an inch. Gusty
northwest winds will continue overnight into Sunday, with winds
finally diminishing by early Sunday evening. Forecast lows
overnight still look good, so did not make any changes but did
tweak hourly temps this evening to account for current trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 705 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Gusty northwest winds will be the prevailing aviation forecast
concern tonight through much of the day Sunday. Occasional gusts
of 30-35 knots are expected at KSJT this evening, with 25-30 knot
gusts at most of the other TAF sites. Wind speeds are expected to
decrease to some extent from Midnight through early Sunday
morning, and then increase from mid-morning Sunday through most of
the afternoon. Winds will quickly diminish on Sunday evening.
Cloud ceilings of 5000-7000 feet will persist into late tonight,
followed by clearing from southwest to northeast by early Sunday
morning. Occasional sprinkles are possible this evening, and a
band of light rain showers will move east into west central Texas
between 800 PM and Midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

.Rain Chances Tonight...

The potential for additional rain will continue tonight, before the
upper system moves east. Models continue to bring an upper-level
disturbance over West Central Texas tonight. The NAM brings the
center of the low aloft out of the Southern Rockies and into the
Southern Plains by sunrise Sunday morning. By that time, showers and
thunderstorms will be well east of our area. The best timing for
showers and thunderstorms tonight will be before midnight. After
midnight, most of the showers and thunderstorms will likely be
confined to an area east of a line from Throckmorton, to Coleman, to
Junction. Plus, as the night progresses, showers will become the
dominate precipitation mode. For Sunday, look for: 1) lots of
sunshine, 2) winds from the northwest, and 3) much cooler afternoon
highs, mainly in the 65 to 73 range.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Sunday night lows will generally be in the mid 40s with much
warmer temperatures expected for Monday and Tuesday as south to
southwest surface winds return to the area. Highs will be in the
mid 80s to the lower 90s. Another cool front will move across West
Central Texas on Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily across the eastern third of the area.
Highs on Wednesday will range from the low to mid 70s over the
northern half of the area and the lower 80s over the southern
half. Post-frontal highs on Thursday will be in the 70s. The
forecast will remain dry Thursday through Saturday. Friday and
Saturday highs will warm back into the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  67  46  85 /  40   5   0   0
San Angelo  43  72  46  90 /  30   5   0   0
Junction  46  73  43  88 /  30   5   0   0
Brownwood  45  69  43  86 /  40   5   0   0
Sweetwater  39  67  48  85 /  30   5   0   0
Ozona       42  72  45  89 /  30   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99



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