Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 102300
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Gusty south winds will become south to southeast at 5 to 10 knots
this evening, with some mid and upper level clouds approaching the
southern sites. Stratus will be possible between 09z and 11z, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF package.
South winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots, with higher gusts, by
mid morning Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Tonight and Friday, our area will be on the southern periphery of a
broad upper level high, extending from the Desert Southwest across
the central/southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley.

To our south, a mid/upper level cyclonic circulation west of Laredo
this afternoon will gradually weaken, with an inverted trough moving
slowly northwest along the Rio Grande Valley through Friday. A
cumulus field has developed across much of the southern half of our
area this afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening across the southern part of our area,
mainly south of a Barnhart to Junction line. Model low-level
moisture fields hint at possibility of some possible low cloud
development late tonight/early Friday morning in our southern
counties. Expect the bulk of low cloud development to be south of
our area, and going with partly cloudy conditions in the southern
part of our area overnight. Carrying slight chance PoP for showers
and thunderstorms on Friday across the southwestern part of our
area, mainly south of a line from just east of Iraan to Ozona to
Sonora. Going with a near persistence temperature forecast with
little change expected. South-southeast winds will continue across
our area.

LONG TERM...
/Friday Night through Wednesday/
Looks like an upper level high pressure ridge will dominate across
Texas, bringing hot and dry conditions. Highs will be in the 90s,
with locations in the Big Country hitting 100 Sunday and Monday.
Lows will be 70 to 75.

/Wednesday Night and Thursday/
A major change in the weather pattern will bring a chance of rain to
much of the area, along with cooler temperatures. The combination of
a cold front moving south across the area and a strong upper level
trough developing over the eastern half of the CONUS will bring the
potential for showers and thunderstorms for mid to late week. Some
other ingredients for rainfall include low level upslope flow behind
surface boundary, the surface boundary in the vicinity of West
Central Texas and abundant moisture(point forecast soundings PW
values 1.75 to 2 inches). The GFS model is extremely wet for day
7-10 with several inches possible. The ECMWF model is further north
with the heavy QPF amounts, across Oklahoma and the TX Panhandle.
Will go with with SLGT chance to chance POPS for the day 6-7 time
frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  95  73  97  72 /   5   5  10   5   0
San Angelo  70  95  71  97  72 /   5  10  10   5   0
Junction  69  93  71  95  72 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





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