Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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557
FXUS64 KSJT 292358 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
658 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening and
early tonight will end prior to Midnight. Brief reductions in
cloud ceiling and visibility are possible in the locally heavy
rain accompanying the convection. Radar trends will be monitored
for any updates to TAFs. Late tonight, low cloud development and
northward expansion is expected. This should affect our southern
terminals, and possibly SJT, with MVFR ceilings early Tuesday
morning. Low cloud cover should dissipate around mid-morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
afternoon. Winds will be mostly from the east or east-northeast
through Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Currently, showers and thunderstorms are expanding in coverage
across the Permian Basin south through the Lower Trans Pecos and
into western Crockett County. Farther east, an upper level low
located across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into East Texas is
interacting with a tropical-like moist and unstable atmosphere in
the lower levels to produce isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms from the DFW area south into the Hill Country
region. These showers and thunderstorms are moving slowly east
toward our CWA. Visible satellite imagery does appear to show a
somewhat more stable atmosphere in our CWA west of a Brownwood to
Junction line, with the exception of western Crockett County. So,
while isolated showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out for
those areas of our CWA, will have lower PoPs in what appears to be
a more stable air mass. Most shower/thunderstorm activity should
taper off by late evening.

No significant changes were needed to temperatures/winds for our
area. Another muggy night expected with dewpoints running in the
mid to upper 60s, with highs Tuesday in the upper 80s to around
90.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night though Sunday)

Rain chances will begin to diminish Wednesday through the end of
the week as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the
central CONUS. By Sunday the ridge will re-center over Texas bringing
an end to rainfall chances for our forecast area. Higher temperatures
under clear to partly cloudy skies will accompany the upper high
pressure allowing afternoon highs to climb back to near seasonal
normals in the lower 90s by Sunday.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  89  71  90 /  20  40  20  20
San Angelo  70  89  70  90 /  20  40  20  20
Junction  71  88  71  90 /  30  40  20  20
Brownwood  71  89  71  90 /  30  40  20  20
Sweetwater  68  87  69  89 /  30  40  30  30
Ozona       69  87  69  88 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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