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000
FXUS64 KSJT 170358
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1056 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

North winds of 10 KTS or less will shift southwest mid/late morning
as surface high pressure moves east. Occasional gusts to 20 KTS
possible at KABI and KSJT Monday afternoon. VFR next 24 hours.

04
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
Made a minor update to winds and clouds.  Winds should continue to
diminish and the clouds should also clear by midnight.  Everything
else looks great with a cold night as temps drop into the lower
30s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

North winds gusting to 27 KTS will weaken by sunset and fall below
12 KTS by 2Z. Winds will gradually shift northwest, then to the
southwest by mid morning as surface high pressure moves east. VFR
next 24 hours with daytime cumulus dissipating early this evening.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Gusty north winds continue in the wake of a cold front that moved
through the area early this morning. Sustained winds of 25 to 35
mph, with gusts to near 45 mph will continue until late this
afternoon. Although winds may continue near wind advisory criteria
at a few locations beyond 4 PM, I have opted to let the product
expire at 4, as most locations should remain below criteria. Winds
will quickly decrease after sunset, with ideal radiational cooling
conditions setting up overnight. These conditions will allow
temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 30s at most locations,
with the coldest readings in low lying areas and river valleys.
Surface high pressure will shift east of the area on Monday, while a
lee trough develops across the western Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will result in southwest winds of 8 to 12 mph, and near seasonal
temperatures. Highs will range from the lower 70s west, to the mid
60s east.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Friday Night)

Look for dry conditions and temperature swings to continue through
the end of the work week. Another cold front will push south across
West Central Texas on Tuesday; however, this front will not impact
temperatures that much. The cooler air will not move into West
Central Texas until Tuesday night. So, plan for afternoon highs
Tuesday to range from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s along our
Interstate 10 corridor. Although southeasterly surface flow begins
to return overnight Tuesday night, afternoon highs on Wednesday will
be closer to seasonal normals, mainly mid to upper 60s north to the
lower 70s south. Then, more dominate southerly low-level flow on
Thursday helps produce slightly warmer afternoon highs back in the
75 to 80 range. By Friday, clouds will be more dominate;
nevertheless, gusty southwesterly, down-slope surface winds will
help push afternoon highs back into the 80 to 85 range.

Huber

(Next Weekend)

Models this cycle still do not paint a very promising rain picture
for next weekend. Neither the GFS or ECMWF generate much if any QPF
with the weekend cold front. Both indicate, which has been the case
for some time now, the best rain chances will be east of West
Central Texas. As you might expect, my confidence for any
measurable rain for next weekend, anywhere across West Central
Texas, is currently very low.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  31  70  50  78  41 /   5   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  31  72  48  81  42 /   5   0   0   0   0
Junction  31  69  40  83  43 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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