Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 301200
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
700 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will affect the terminals this morning, with mainly
MVFR ceilings expected through 17Z. VFR conditions will prevail
across the terminals this afternoon and evening. Confidence
regarding convective development across the terminals this
evening and overnight is low at this time. Most favored
terminals to see SHRA/TS is KSJT and KSOA this evening.
For now included VCTS for several hours at both terminals.
Stratus is expected to return overnight, with MVFR ceilings
developing after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The aforementioned upper low will move very slowly east along or
just south of the southwest U.S. and Mexico border Tuesday and
Wednesday, and into southeastern New Mexico Wednesday night. With
the gradual approach of this system, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night, increasing
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

From early Thursday to Friday evening, the upper low is progged to
continue a very slow movement from southeastern New Mexico to
central or south-central Texas, and then drifting into Deep South
Texas or the lower Rio Grande Valley next weekend.

A weak cold front progged to enter our area Wednesday into early
Thursday could provide a focus for convective development. With
increased large scale ascent and precipitable water values remaining
generally in the range of 1.2 to 1.6 inches, anticipate more
widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms, with additional
heavy rainfall Wednesday through Thursday. Given the model forecast
and recent rainfall trends across our area, a Flood or Flash Flood
Watch will need to be considered in the coming days.

Temperatures will be cooler following the cold frontal passage.
Unless the models trend faster with the forecast track of the
upper low across Texas, our rain chances will continue through the
end of this week and possibly linger into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  67  85  66 /  20  40  50  70
San Angelo  87  68  87  67 /  30  50  40  50
Junction  87  68  83  68 /  50  40  50  60

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Kimble-Mason-
Menard-Sutton.

&&

$$

99/99/24


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