Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 201101
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
501 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered showers will be possible at all sites this morning, with
mainly dry conditions expected this afternoon. MVFR ceilings at
the southern 3 sites will become VFR this afternoon. A return of
MVFR ceilings is expected at mainly the southern 3 sites, late
this evening or early Wednesday morning. A strong cold front will
move through the area tonight, resulting in gusty northeast winds.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
behind the front, but confidence remains too low to include in the
current TAF package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Another Cold Front and Possible Rain...

As another cold front approaches and moves into West Central
Texas, beginning this afternoon, rain chances will continue for
much of West Central Texas today and tonight. The flow aloft will
remain from the southwest. Minor disturbances in the southwest
flow aloft will provide some upper dynamics. The best rain chances
will remain across our southeastern counties, where moisture will
be best. Some thunderstorms are possible; however, the primary
precipitation mode will be showers. If thunderstorms do develop,
the potential for severe weather is low, with The Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) Day 1 Outlook indicating only general thunderstorms
for our area today and tonight. The front will bring gusty winds
from the north, along with much colder air. However, the main cold
air surge will not arrive until tonight and into Wednesday.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)

..Rain Potential Continues...

Another cold front will continue to move south, across West
Central Texas, on Wednesday. By noon, all of West Central Texas
will have gusty winds from the north. The potential for rain will
continue through Saturday, as an upper trough to the west slowly
moves into the Central Plains. Some areas Wednesday night may have
light freezing rain, mainly across the Big Country. Otherwise,
expect mainly showers, with possibly a few thunderstorms. Again,
the threat of severe thunderstorms looks low, as indicated by Day
2 and Day 3 outlooks, from SPC. Temperatures will initially be
cooler than seasonal normals; but, for Friday and Saturday, highs
will again be in the 60s.

(Saturday night through Monday)

..Dry and Unseasonably Warm...

As the upper trough finally moves into and east of the Central
Plains, dry conditions and temperatures above seasonal normals
will return to West Central Texas. Another weak cold front on
Saturday won`t have much impact on temperatures. Highs for Sunday
and Monday in the 60s, look likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  33  36  30 /  20  40  50  20
San Angelo  76  40  41  33 /  10  40  60  20
Junction  74  49  54  37 /  40  60  80  20
Brownwood  75  35  41  33 /  50  50  70  20
Sweetwater  74  31  35  29 /   0  20  50  20
Ozona       75  45  50  35 /  10  50  60  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels



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