


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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042 FXUS64 KSJT 150646 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 146 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch has been extended until 1 PM CDT for the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill Country, and Heartland. Also expanded watch to include Tom Green and Concho counties. - A more settled pattern with a warming trend in temperatures is expected later this week into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Recent model runs of the HRRR and other short range models continue to show heavy rain and thunderstorms moving across the I-10 corridor this morning. Rainfall totals near 1-2" seem possible along with locally higher amounts near 3". In fact, some of the more recent model runs continue to show this activity further north into the Concho Valley. This is further north than previously thought. Given recent rainfall across these areas, flash flooding seems likely as this activity moves through. We will remain under a Moderate to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. As a result, the Flood Watch has been extended northward to now include Tom Green and Concho Counties as well. We have also extended the watch until 1 PM CDT. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Recent model runs of the HRRR and other short range models continue to show potentially heavy rain and thunderstorms moving into the I-10 corridor early this morning. Recent radar imagery shows scattered thunderstorms developing along a disturbance located over northern Mexico and areas near Del Rio and Edwards County. Rainfall totals near 1-2" seem possible along with locally higher amounts near 3". Models continue to show the bulk of this activity moving north into the I-10 corridor by around 2-4 AM CDT. Given recent rainfall across this area, flash flooding seems likely as this activity moves through. We will remain under a Moderate to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding until 7 AM CDT. As a result, the Flood Watch has been extended until then. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Complex of showers and thunderstorms from Del Rio area was moving north into the I-10 corridor and Concho Valley at 6Z. Latest CAMS weaken the complex by 7 AM this morning, but previous models continued the storms this morning and into the afternoon. Thus extended the Flood watch to 18Z. Also, expanded watch to include Tom Green and Concho counties as soils are saturated there, and even an inch of rainfall would bring a return of flooding. Shower and thunderstorm activity end quickly early this evening. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Both the ECMWF and the GFS are indicating an end to the unsettled pattern across the region. High pressure builds aloft by the end of the week into the weekend. As a result, highs will warm into the middle to upper 90s. Much drier conditions will remain in place as this high pressure sets in. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Showers and thunderstorms moving into the KSOA and KJCT will spread north tonight over KSJT and KBBD. MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities in heavy rain developing tonight. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will likely weaken after 12Z. Ceilings should rise to VFR toward noon. KABI should remain VFR, but could be affected by isolated showers and thunderstorm this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 90 73 92 73 / 20 10 10 0 San Angelo 86 72 90 71 / 50 10 10 0 Junction 86 72 89 69 / 50 10 10 0 Brownwood 89 72 90 71 / 30 10 0 0 Sweetwater 91 72 93 73 / 30 10 0 0 Ozona 83 71 88 70 / 40 10 0 0 Brady 86 72 88 70 / 40 10 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Brown-Concho- Crockett-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher- Sutton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04