Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 291129
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
629 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Cold front continues to make slow progress southward this
morning. Expect winds to shift to the north and increase at SJT within
the next hour. JCT and SOA should see the wind shift closer to
14Z. Otherwise...VFR for the next 24 hours with winds in the 10 to
15 kt during the day, then a gradual shift to the southeast
overnight.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A weak cold front continues to head south across west central Texas
early this morning. It has passed through the Big Country and
Abilene area and should reach San Angelo around sunrise...and the
Interstate 10 corridor by mid morning.  Front will bring a wind
shift to the north...with winds only in the 10 mph range. Today
should be another mild and dry day, with highs only reaching into
the mid to upper 70s.  With light winds and clear skies
overnight...we should see good radiational cooling with lows around
50.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

A quiet and dry weather pattern will continue for our area Friday
through the weekend. Rain chances will return by next Tuesday and
possibly continue through Wednesday night.

The upper level ridge over the western half of Texas will weaken on
Friday, and the surface ridge axis will slowly shift east of our
area Friday and Friday night. Pleasant temperatures will continue
Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s across our area.

A weak, low amplitude ridge aloft will be over the southern Rockies
and the western half of Texas this weekend, while a strong upper low
and trough enter the northwestern CONUS. A warming trend in
temperatures is in store, with a return of south to southeast winds.
Highs are expected to be in the lower 80s acros much of our area on
Saturday, and lower to mid 80s on Sunday, with clear to partly
cloudy skies.

Early next week, the GFS and ECMWF bring a vigorous upper trough
east across much of the western CONUS on Monday, and into the
Rockies on Tuesday. Both models show a closed low tracking into
Wyoming by Tuesday morning, with a trough extending south across the
Arizona/New Mexico border. The 00Z ECMWF is more progressive with
the trough, taking it from the southern Rockies east across the
Southern Plains and West Texas Tuesday night. The GFS has more
energy moving into the base of the trough, and keeps the trough axis
west of our area until late Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
Taking into account both model solutions and the timing uncertainty,
carrying low PoPs beginning Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday
night.

With the aforementioned setup, increased and gusty south-southeast
winds are expected across our area Monday, with increased surface
pressure gradient and strengthening lee side trough to our west. Low-
level moisture will also increase. Indications are for a surface
trough/dryline to approach the northwestern part of our area, with
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms in the unstable air
ahead of it. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible Tuesday
night and Wednesday with the approach of the upper trough. A cold
front is progged to move southeast across our area Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, although timing differences are
noted in the models. The possibility of showers and thunderstorms
continues with the front. While there is uncertainty with the
details, the forecast strength of the upper system and instability
progged for our area could support the possibility of some strong to
severe storms.

Temperatures will be warm Monday into Wednesday, then a little cooler
following the cold frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  51  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  78  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  79  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  75  51  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  73  53  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       79  50  77  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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