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737
FXUS64 KSJT 241750
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1250 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.AVIATION...
/ 18Z TAFS/

ABI and JCT still reporting MVFR ceilings early this afternoon as
remnants of convective system head east out of the area. Expect
ceilings to lift over the next couple hours. Winds mainly east
today in the 10 to 15 kt range. Expect low clouds with MVFR/IFR
ceilings to make a return this evening around the 03-06Z time
frame and linger until mid morning. Latest short range models
indicate a few thunderstorms possible mainly near the BBD/JCT
areas, but confidence is too low to include in TAFS at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Area of showers and storms continues across the eastern portions
of West Central Texas this morning, east of the terminal
locations. With that in mind, will monitor radar but not mention
any convection in the terminals to start with. MVFR cigs are
following a cold front into the area, having cleared the I-20
areas around KABI already. These should spread south and cover
much of the remainder of the area by mid morning. Just how long
they will persist is a big question, but should at least continue
into the afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased across much of West
Central Texas early this morning, after fairly widespread strong to
severe storms occurred across a large part of the area yesterday
evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms are developing along
and behind a cold front which is currently moving into the Big
Country. High resolution models indicate showers and
thunderstorms continuing along and behind the front, especially
across our eastern counties, through the morning hours. Although a
few strong storms will be possible, the main concern looks to be
locally heavy rainfall. The better rain chances will shift into
our southeast counties by late morning or early afternoon, with
most rainfall shifting south of the area by mid to late afternoon.
Much cooler temperatures and gusty northeast winds are expected
behind the front. Highs this afternoon will mainly be in the upper
70s to mid 80s, although a few locations along Interstate 10 may
approach the 90 degree mark.

West Central Texas will be in northwest flow aloft, as an upper
level ridge remain centered over Arizona/northern Mexico.
Additional shower and thunderstorm development will be possible
this evening to our northwest, with this activity possibly moving
into our area overnight. For now, the best PoPs were kept across
our northwest counties, decreasing as you head south and east.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

LONG TERM...
Sunday and Monday, West central Texas will remain in northwest flow
aloft, as an upper level ridge remains centered across the Desert
Southwest. Intermittent disturbances aloft will move northwest to
southeast across the area, resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms during this time frame. PoPs were kept in the 30 to
50 percent range for now, as the exact timing of these
disturbances is hard to pinpoint. Temperatures will remain below
normal on both Sunday and Monday, with highs in the mid to upper
80s and overnight lows in the 60s to near 70.

Upper level riding will begin to build into the region Tuesday into
the latter part of the work week, resulting in drier conditions
and steadily warming temperatures. Highs will mainly be in the
90s, with overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  67  81  68 /  60  40  50  40
San Angelo  86  70  86  69 /  30  40  50  40
Junction  90  70  87  69 /  60  30  50  30
Brownwood  82  69  83  67 /  70  40  40  30
Sweetwater  77  66  80  67 /  40  50  50  50
Ozona       89  70  88  69 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$