Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 242317
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
617 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Patchy fog will develop around 08z tonight at KSJT, KSOA, and
KJCT. This will result in IFR visibilities at KSJT/KSOA, with MVFR
visibilities expected at KJCT. These visibilities will improve after
14z. The remaining terminals will maintain VFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Fairly quiet weather across West Central Texas through Saturday,
with the center of the high pressure aloft almost directly overhead.
Much of the area, especially the low lying river valleys and
lakeshores, saw patchy fog early this morning. Give that light south
winds have continued to increase low level moisture, and radiational
cooling tonight will again allow temperatures to drop, think some
patchy light fog will redevelop by sunrise Saturday morning. Don`t
think it will be quite as thick as it was this morning, and a little
faster to dissipate.

Otherwise, not much change in temperatures likely. The coldest spots
tonight will again be the normal low lying areas that see the best
cold air drainage. Highs on Saturday climbing into the mid to upper
80s area-wide.

07

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)

The upper level high, over central Texas Saturday evening, will be
suppressed south over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This to
occur as an upper trough moves from the Pacific Northwest toward the
northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions will continue Sunday and
Monday, with highs well-above normal for this point in October.
These highs are expected to be about 2-3 degrees short of the
record highs for Abilene and San Angelo. South winds will increase
become gusty on Sunday, continuing on Monday with lee side surface
trough development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending a
cold front south into our northern counties by early Tuesday morning.
The front will move south at a slower pace on Tuesday, possibly
stalling just south of our counties Tuesday night. The models have
been hinting at a possibility for some elevated convection
developing north of the front in our central and southern counties
Tuesday night and Wednesday, when a weaker shortwave may enter Texas
from the west. With mid-level instability and sufficient moisture
progged to be in place, keeping the slight PoPs at this time for
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cooler air will filter into our area
behind the front, and should have highs in the mid/upper 70s on
Wednesday.

Looks dry for late week, with a reinforcing cold front arriving late
Thursday afternoon into early Thursday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  89  61  88  61 /   0   0   0   5   0
San Angelo  56  88  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  54  86  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/15/60







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