Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 131136
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
636 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
Look for VFR conditions along with light and variable winds for
the next 24 hours.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
(Today and Tonight)
Beautiful fall-like weather will continue for the next 24 hours
across West Central Texas. A cold front yesterday brought cooler air
into West Central Texas. Thus, look for afternoon highs today much
closer to seasonal normals, mainly in the 85 to 90 range. Skies
today will be mostly sunny, and winds will be mainly from the
northeast or east at 5 to 10 mph. Radiational cooling tonight, under
mostly clear skies, will combine with light winds to produce
overnight lows mainly in the mid 50s. However, some lower areas may
be even cooler, possibly closer to 50.
(Wednesday through Monday)
After a cool start to the day Wednesday, a strong temperature
rebound will occur with a resumption of south winds, sunny skies and
a dry airmass in place. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the
90-95 degree range, which will be close to record highs for Abilene
(94 in 1972) and San Angelo (95 in 1962).
An upper level ridge over the southwestern states will gradually
shift east into Texas through Thursday. The 00Z ECMWF brings a cold
front south across west-central Texas on Friday, while the GFS
stalls the front along our northern border counties. Given the
forecast strength of the surface high across the northern and
central Plains, inclined to believe the ECMWF. This should be a
weak cold frontal passage across our area, but enough to get our max
temperatures out of the 90s.
Weak upper ridge over Texas on Friday will progress slowly east to
the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, while an upper trough moves
into the Desert Southwest. Dry conditions are expected for our
area during the weekend. Low temperatures are forecast to be in
the range of 54-58 degrees, with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
These highs would be 4-7 degrees above normal for mid-October. An
increase in low-level moisture is indicated for our area by next
Monday, as the aforementioned upper trough draws closer.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 88 55 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 88 53 94 58 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 89 52 93 56 / 5 0 0 0