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000
FXUS64 KSJT 122256 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
456 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFS/

A disturbance will move across West Central Texas overnight bringing
scattered showers. I have included a VCSH mention at all the sites
beginning between 04z and 06z. Winds will remain generally light
overnight, then become southwest at 10 to 15 knots, with higher
gusts, by late morning Friday. VFR conditions are expected through
the next 24 hours.

Daniels

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Scattered showers still possible late tonight into Friday morning.

Potent Upper level low over Southern California spinning its way
northeast into Arizona late this afternoon. Meanwhile, the jet axis
is still spreading mid and upper level moisture into the southern
Plains. Low level moisture is still scarce, but dewpoints have
climbed into the upper 20s and lower 30s, and given the below normal
temperatures, this should be adequate for some light rain. As the
upper storm system weakens and crosses to the north of the area late
tonight, lift will move across the area and scattered showers will
likely develop. Rain should be light, and most areas will not see a
tenth of an inch.

With dewpoints climbing and with overnight temperatures struggling
to drop very much, the threat of any type of ice is low. Should see
a cold rain for the area. Lows tonight in the mid and upper 30s.

System passes on Friday, leaving dry conditions by late afternoon.
Weak cold front will follow the upper system through the area, but
not until Friday Night. Thus, with more sunshine and with southwest
winds, should be warmer on Friday.

07

LONG TERM...
Friday Night through Thursday

After another cold front tomorrow night, the very cold air should
stay well north of West Central Texas through at least the latter
part of next week. Overnight lows will again drop into the upper 20s
for Saturday night, as light surface winds and radiational cooling
take control. Some low-lying areas may actually see lows overnight
Saturday night in the lower to mid 20s. Temperatures below seasonal
normals will then dominate West Central Texas until Sunday. On
Sunday, we`ll see some return southerly low-level flow. By Monday,
afternoon highs will be back in the 60s, with very dominate
southerly low-level flow. The GFS does bring a weak cold front south
to our Interstate 20 corridor, and that front may hold afternoon
highs down slightly across the Big Country for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Nevertheless, highs for those two days will be in the
60s, and that`s still above the upper 50s seasonal normals for
Abilene. What`s more, southerly low-level flow becomes more dominate
again overnight Wednesday night and Thursday. So, look for highs
Thursday afternoon in the lower to mid 60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  60  32  45  27 /  30  20   5   5   0
San Angelo  37  61  35  50  29 /  30  20   5   5   0
Junction  37  60  36  53  28 /  20  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels