Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 282303
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Mid/high clouds will increase tonight across the CWA as a
shortwave trough dives south into the southern Plains. A few
showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible across the Big
Country, mainly after midnight, but confidence remains low enough
to preclude mention in the forecast. Nonetheless, will show a
gradual decrease in cloud heights, dropping to around 10,000 ft by
Saturday. Expect winds to remain from a general southerly
direction at 10 kts or less. However, winds are forecast to veer
more westerly early Saturday at KABI. A few showers cannot be
ruled out early Saturday, but again, confidence remains quite low.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Appears the quiet conditions will continue across West Central
Texas for tonight and Saturday. Upper level ridge has shifted to
the west, with north and northwest flow aloft across the area. Saw
an area of showers and storms develop across the South Plains and
Panhandle last night and make a run towards the northern Big
Country this morning. Similar situation may set up tonight, and
with that in mind have slipped in some slight chance PoPs into the
northern Big Country across Haskell and Throckmorton Counties.

Otherwise, not as hot on Saturday with 850mb temperatures dropping
slightly. Still, guidance looked a little too cool and stayed at
or a degree or two above guidance for highs. Kept Saturday dry
for now, but with slightly better low level moisture returning to
the area and with the possibility of a weak disturbance developing
in the northwest flow aloft, can not rule out a few stray storms.
Not going to mention for now and see if the pieces can all fall
into place.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The latest model guidance further strengthens the upper ridge
over the forecast area through the end of next week, and positions
an upper low further east of the area than previously forecasted.
Will therefore maintain a dry forecast through the period with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s, a few degrees warmer than
seasonal norms. Morning lows will generally be in the lower to mid
70s, near seasonal norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  97  72  97 /   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  71  97  71  96 /   0  10   5   5
Junction  69  94  70  94 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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