Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 272223
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
522 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014
See update discussion below.
Radar trends indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Northern Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. Updated grids and
zones to insert slight chance POPS for tonight west of a Abilene to
San Angelo to Ozona line.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/
(Tonight and Thursday)
Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain somewhat promising. The
NAM continues to present a QPF band over the Texas panhandle later
tonight, as an upper trough begins to move into the southern
Rockies. As the upper trough moves over the southern Rockies and
into the Plains tomorrow, the NAM pushes a QPF band into West
Central Texas. Unfortunately, the GFS lags the NAM considerably and
doesn`t move any QPF area into our counties until tomorrow night.
So, with a nod toward the NAM, continuing 30 PoPs for our
northwestern counties, along with 20 PoPs elsewhere, looks
reasonable for tomorrow.
(Friday into Thursday)
An upper trough will slowly move east across the Central Plains
and North Texas, Thursday night into Friday. The best lift from this
system will be north of I-20. The GFS model is the most aggressive
with rainfall amounts, with 1 to 3 inches along and north of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line. The NAM model had generally 1/2 inch
or less rainfall, and the EC 1/10 inch or less. GFS and NAM model
precipitable water does increase to 2 inches Thursday night.
Combined the expected slow movement of the storms, there could
indeed be some locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low given
the variation of the model QPF algorithm output. Most of the Big
Country is in the extreme drought category, so flooding potential is
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely linger Friday
afternoon into Saturday as the upper system lifts northeast. There
should be some relieve from the Summer heat, with highs in the lower
90s Friday, but temperatures will warm back into the mid and upper
90s this weekend. Hot and dry otherwise next week, as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the region.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 75 95 71 91 72 / 20 20 50 40 30
San Angelo 73 96 72 93 72 / 20 20 30 30 30
Junction 72 96 73 94 71 / 10 20 20 30 30