Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 020737
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
237 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW. A
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXISTS ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. A
DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE RIDGE HAS HELPED GENERATE A COMPLEX OF
STORMS NORTH OF GOODLAND KS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT AFFECT OUR AREA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
THAT SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THRU THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY COMMON
PHENOMENON THAT OCCURS DURING THE LATE SPRING AND SUMMER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS IS GOING TO MATERIALIZE AND
ADJUST THE POPS AS NEEDED.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SO EXPECT MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS IN
THE COMING DAYS...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURS AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW FORMS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CHANGES OCCUR BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST. SOME LOW END POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE...BUT OVERALL THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...GIVING OUR AREA TIME TO DRY OUT FROM THE WET MAY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  85  70 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   82  65  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   82  67  84  69 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   82  66  85  68 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   77  62  82  65 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   77  62  82  65 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   82  65  84  67 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   80  65  86  67 /  20  10  10  10
F10   82  66  84  68 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   83  65  85  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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