Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 050419
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS TAF
CYCLE. THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NE OK OVER INTO NW
AR...AFFECTING THE KBVO TAF AS WELL AS THE NW AR TAF SITES. SOUTH
AND WEST OF THERE...I WENT MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE ON TSTORM
POTENTIAL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF/WHEN A STORM AFFECTS A
TERMINAL. AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING...TSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES
SOME OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NE CORNER OF OK AND PARTS OF NW ARKANSAS
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING NOTED IN PAST HOUR OR
TWO. WILL BE WATCHING A COUPLE OF AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN THE 06-09Z TIME
FRAME AS LATEST NAM SUGGESTS AND EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TOWARD
NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SW KANSAS BUT HAVE SHOWN DOWNWARD TREND RECENTLY.
OVERALL FORECAST FOR POPS AFTER 06Z THROUGH WED MORNING APPEAR
REASONABLE...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OK AND NW AR
FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT MOMENTARILY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
TSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD. THE
BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER IN NW AR THIS EVENING WITH MULTIPLE
SOURCES OF DATA SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT THERE. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NE OK SITES AFTER 06Z WITH STORMS COMING IN FROM
KS. FINALLY...NW AR COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IN THE
MORNING...EITHER FROM WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE NE OK
ACTIVITY...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IF/WHEN STORMS AFFECT THE SITES...OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL. SITES KMLC AND KFSM MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED
BY MUCH THIS TAF PERIOD.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MISSOURI DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CONCERN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL
RESIDE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW MAY PUSH SOUTHWEST INTO THIS HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND IF THE CAP IS NOT TOO STRONG...A
GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP. WILL NEED TO WATCH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS CLOSELY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL PLAY THE MAIN ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND MAYBE EVEN INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. THE TREND
WITH TIME WILL BE FOR UPPER RIDGING TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE SO
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME AND BE DISPLACED
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND AND HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE LIMITED. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
UNCERTAINTIES IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN HOW
HOT...OR NOT...IT GETS THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  71  92  73 / MMM  50  40  30
FSM   94  73  94  75 / MMM  30  30  50
MLC   92  75  95  78 / MMM  10  20  20
BVO   84  69  90  71 / MMM  60  60  30
FYV   89  69  88  70 / MMM  60  60  50
BYV   90  69  86  70 / MMM  70  60  60
MKO   88  71  93  74 / MMM  30  30  40
MIO   88  69  86  69 / MMM  70  60  50
F10   87  73  94  76 / MMM  20  20  20
HHW   97  75  97  77 / MMM  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30


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