Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 270537
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS...AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO FAR...WITH WIND REMAINING IN
PLACE...BUT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS). THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS (WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS






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