Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 230821
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
421 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FROST ADVISORY SIGNIFICANTLY AS CLOUD COVER
IS INHIBITING TONIGHTS DROP-OFF IN TEMPERATURES. AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF DAYTON...AND OVER PORTIONS OF INDIANA WILL STILL STAND A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF DROPPING TO THE LOW AND MID 30S THIS MORNING
AND HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE ADVISORY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION. WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY...HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A FEW DEGREES BUT
GENERALLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE.

THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP THE SC THAT HAS STUBBORNLY HUNG OVER THE TAFS. A HOLE
HAS ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN ERN OHIO AND IS WORKING WESTWARD. THIS
CLEARING WILL HELP BREAK UP THE SC. SC SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED
AFT 09Z...BUT SOME 2500-3500 FT ISOLATED CIGS COULD LAST TO 15Z.

SCATTERED CI WILL AFFECT THE TAFS AFT THE SC DISSIPATES. THE CI
WILL BECOME BROKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>044-060.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES







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