Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 191920
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
220 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through Monday morning
before sliding east of the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. Much
above normal temperatures will continue through at least the
first part of the week. A weak cold front will provide a chance
of rain Tuesday, but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue
through the upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected
midweek before rain chances return for the end of the workweek
with the approach of a storm system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure over the area has allowed winds to remain
relatively light with overcast skies. Skies have begun to clear
from north to south with the northern half of CWA clear. Where
skies have cleared temperatures are in the lower 60s with
temperatures around 50 degrees where skies have remained
overcast.

Overnight, mostly clear skies will allow the ground to quickly
radiate. This will push dewpoint depressions close to zero by
midnight. As this happens fog and low ceilings will quickly come
right back. Low temperatures Monday morning will bottom out
around 40 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
During the day Monday an upper level trough axis over the
Western United States will amplify and slowly head east. As this
happens mid level ridging over the CWA will also amplify. This
will quickly push 850 mb temperatures towards 10 degrees C. The
main hold back for high temperatures Monday afternoon will be
the lower clouds/ fog that forms Monday morning. Monday night
the upper level trough axis will break apart with the southern
branch over Southeast Texas wrapping up into an upper level low
and the northern branch pulling northeast towards the Hudson
Bay. Tuesday morning the upper level energy will approach the
area from the west with a splitting jet just north of the area.
PWATs on both the GFS and NAM are around 1.20". This would be
near the all time daily record. For these reasons have raised
PoPs Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Area will be under a warm and dry southerly flow Monday night to
early Tuesday. A weak cold front will bring a good chance of showers
Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night. High pressure and dry weather
will follow for Wednesday. A vigorous low pressure system moving to
the western Great Lakes will impact the area starting on Thursday
and continuing through Friday. First, a warm front developing ahead
of the low will be the focus for showers on Thursday. For Friday,
showers and thunderstorms will be likely with passage of a cold
front extending south from the low center. Saturday should be dry
with high pressure moving to the lower Ohio Valley.

Warm advection and sunshine, and the presence of an upper ridge
across the eastern CONUS, will allow much above normal temperatures
to persist for most of the period. Highs are forecast to be in the
60s Tuesday through Friday. A reduction to near normal 40s appears
to be in store for Saturday in a northwest flow behind the vigorous
low.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level ridging will continue to build into the region through
the TAF period with low level moisture remaining. Currently TAF
sites are IFR with clouds eroding from north to south. The
clearing line is just north of KDAY and KCMH at this time. The
clearing line will eventually make it to CVG/LUK late this
afternoon but the break will be short lived. This evening into
Monday morning surface high pressure will be overhead with weak
winds. These weak winds will allow dewpoint depressions to
approach zero making low ceilings and visibilities likely.
During the day Monday the same pattern of today will repeat. The
sun will slowly start to burn off the low clouds and
visibilities by the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible through Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures
Date     CVG           CMH                DAY
Sun 2/19 74(1939)      70(1939)           70(1939)
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016)      69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930)      71(1997)           68(1930)

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Haines
CLIMATE...


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