Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 231058
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
658 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region
through early next week. This will bring generally dry and warm
weather conditions to the region. A slight cooling trend will
occur by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another hot day looks likely this afternoon as mid-level ridging
amplifies over the Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures rise to
18/19 degrees C (GFS/ ECMWF respectively) this afternoon with
1000/850 mb thicknesses also climbing to around 1420 m. PWATs
also will continue to slowly fall today down towards 1.00". GFS
and NAM forecast soundings also show mostly clear skies through
the day today. Given the drier air, mostly clear skies, rising
thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures have continued thinking that
today will be warmer than Friday. Almost all places will likely
hit 90 degrees today (minus the southeastern zones) with some
locations making it into the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight into Sunday the mid-level ridge will slowly nudge east
as the upper level low that was over the Mountain West ejects.
1000/ 850 mb thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures nudge downwards
a bit so think Sunday highs will be slightly cooler than
Saturdays.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An elongated upper level ridge axis in place across the northeast
United States on Monday will slowly break down through Wednesday as
a trough axis approaches from the west. With a dry airmass in place,
will maintain a dry forecast for Monday into Tuesday along with a
continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs both days will
be into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

The approach of the trough axis for Wednesday into Thursday may be
affected with how close Hurricane Maria gets to the east coast so
there is some uncertainty as to just how fast the ridge will
completely break down. This may also limit how much pcpn is able to
make it into our area through the day on Wednesday so will limit
pops to just a slight chance and primarily across our northwest for
Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will also be a little tricky
depending on this timing so will lean toward a model blend with
highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.

The upper level trough will then settle into the region for Thursday
into Friday. This will be accompanied by a much cooler airmass with
highs on Thursday only in the lower 70s, cooling into the mid to
upper 60s by Friday. There will also be some lower end chances for
showers, especially across northern portions of our area on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains located northeast of the area this
morning. Some patchy river valley fog has also formed with only
KLUK not VFR. Any river valley fog will quickly burn off this
morning with light northeast winds through the afternoon and
clear skies. Sunday morning some more patchy river valley fog
will be possible.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Haines



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