Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 270537
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
137 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A weak cold front will push east across the area tonight and early
Monday. An upper level trough will cross the Great Lakes on Tuesday
and could spark a shower with the cold air being funnelled into the
region. High pressure will then settle over the Upper Midwest and
bring in drier and cooler air through mid week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convection is on a slow weakening trend and has slowed forward
movement. Recent HRRR and RAP runs have captured this trend and
suggest that it will continue with precipitation diminishing in
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Somewhat drier and cooler air on northwest flow will be found
behind the frontal passage Monday. While some dewpoints along and
south of the Ohio River will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s
during the day, they should drop off to the mid 60s overnight,
and be the lower limit of overnight low temperatures.
Dewpoints will drop off later Tuesday as an upper level trough
crosses the northern Ohio Valley. The colder air behind it
necessitated the inclusion of a possible shower in the afternoon.
Cloud cover and cooler air with these potential showers will hold
max temps to within a few degrees of 80. Any showers will
probably be more like passing sprinkles and should not
significantly affect any activities in the region.
The true cold and drier push of air comes in behind the upper
trough Tuesday evening. Dewpoints in the 50s will let overnight
lows drop into the 50s.
The shower and thunderstorm chance will then persist
across our southern and southeast areas into monday until the
front pushes south of the area through the afternoon. Highs on
Monday will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Period begins with high pressure centered over Illinois. The high
will provide dry weather and below normal temperatures on
Wednesday as highs will only make the upper 70s.
The high will work east up the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into
Thursday, keeping the region dry, but a little warmer as highs push
into the lower 80s.
Extended models have sped up the cdfnt for the end of the week.
Yesterday they had it reaching the fa on Saturday. Now both the 12Z
GFS and ECMWF bring it and an area of QPF through the fa on Friday.
Added chance PoPs of showers and thunderstorms for Friday. GFS and
ECMWF agree in placing the front around the Ohio River by 12Z. Srn
sections will have a chance of convection for Saturday. By Sunday
another high will bring drier conditions. High temperatures over
the weekend will remain in the lower 80s.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Convection has come to an end across the TAF sites this evening
with smaller showers forming north of Dayton. Through the morning
hours a weak cold front will push through the TAF sites with a
slight wind change and little in the way of precip. Some high res
models do show coverage expanding along the front after sunrise
but the front will be past the TAF sites by this time so am
expecting no impacts. TAF sites that observed rain today could see
some reduced visibilities this morning thanks to fog trying to
form but cloud cover should help to keep anything to dense from
forming. During the day today light northwest winds are expected
with slowly clearing skies. Monday evening into Tuesday morning
another cold front will sweep through the area with little in way
of precip with drier air filtering in behind.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.