Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 220108
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
908 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL
MOVE INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NW PORTIONS OF THE
FA. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THEREFORE
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WELL. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE RAIN COOLED AIR AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS H5 S/W
DROPS SE IN THE NW FLOW. INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD DROP SE DURING
THE MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NW
AND WORK DOWN INTO THE FA DURING THE AFTN. WENT LIKELY POPS FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FA...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EXTREME SW
CORNER...WHERE KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE RIDGE
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE PCPN TO
PUSH S OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY SHOWED DIE DOWN DURING THE
SATURDAY EVENING HOURS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES IN THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE NEAR 100. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON EITHER SIDE OF 70....WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEAK AS
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WITH OUR AREA STILL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...WE COULD
SEE A LOW END CHANCE OF POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF FORCING...BUT WE WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT SO SUPPOSE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOMETHING TO DROP DOWN SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL THEREFORE
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
DURING THE MORE DIURNALLY FAVORABLE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY...BETTER
INSTABILITIES WILL WORK MORE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TOO.
HOWEVER...WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS AND A CONTINUED LACK OF
FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COOL
DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HAVE
SHRA AND VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES FOR A TIME TONIGHT. ONLY
HAVE TSRA MENTION IN AT KDAY DUE TO GREATER CONFIDENCE AT THAT
LOCATION.

AFTER THIS AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT A LULL IN
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE A VCSH
MENTION IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT ANOTHER LULL BEFORE A THIRD
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VBYS WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THE MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...NOVAK





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