Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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134
FXUS61 KILN 201414
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
914 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm air will remain across the region until a cold
front moves through late tonight and Wednesday morning. An
unsettled pattern will ensue with multiple rounds of rain into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High res models continue to suggest the possibility of a few
showers popping up and affecting the far northwest portions of
our fa over the next few hours. However, any pcpn that does
develop should lift quickly north of the area through early
afternoon with the majority of our area remaining dry today.
Southerly winds and WAA will continue through this afternoon. It
looks like we could end up with a fair amount of sun, at least
across southeast portions of our area today. This should allow
for some decent mixing and will nudge up winds a bit through
this afternoon. This will also help push temperatures well into
the 70s for highs today with even some lower 80s not out of the
question across the far southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Expect little precipitation to occur in warm sector. But there
will be widespread showers along and behind a cold front that
will cross the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. 00Z
models showing minor timing discrepancies, which given the time
of day it is moving through will have a big impact on lows
tonight and highs tomorrow. High resolution guidance is the
fastest while the NAM is the slowest. A mean of all models would
put the front very near the I-71 corridor at 12Z. Some very
limited instability may develop along the front, so cannot
completely rule out a bit of embedded thunder. Rainfall does not
look excessive, although with wet ground, there could still be
some minor problem areas, particularly in northwest counties.
After the front passes, temperatures will fall rather
dramatically before steadying out later in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active weather pattern will be in place for much of the long term
period.  Wet conditions will be in place at the start of the long
term.  Went close to guidance values for low temperatures Wednesday
night.  This will allow for low temperatures just north of Dayton
and Columbus to be below freezing.  Easterly flow at the surface
will keep the cooler temperatures in places at the surface while
aloft warmer air is present.  Due to this freezing rain will be
possible Wednesday night.  Cannot rule out some sleet and snow
across this area as well, however think predominate precipitation
type will be rain and then freezing rain Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.  WPC also indicates the freezing rain potential in
the same area.  Impacts could be mitigated with warmer air in place
in the days leading up to this event, however will have to watch
closely.  There will still be the potential for some slick spots,
especially on elevated surfaces. South of Dayton and Columbus
temperatures should be warm enough that precipitation will remain
rain.  Added freezing rain and sleet mention in the HWO.  In
addition to the winter threats, there is also the isolated flooding
potential with the rain that occurs Wednesday night into Thursday.

Models diverge for Thursday on whether another area of low pressure
approaches the region like is advertised with the ECMWF or if drier
conditions occur as with the GFS.  Went with a blend and have the
highest precipitation chances across the south on Thursday.

By Friday models are in agreement on bringing another wave of
precipitation and area of low pressure up into the region although
there are still some differences in the exact placement of the area
of low pressure.  There is some instability primarily southeast of
Interstate 71 and therefore have a chance of thunderstorms in during
the day on Friday across this area.

Yet another low and wave of rain will move into the region late
Friday night into Saturday.  There is again the potential for
thunder during the day on Saturday south of Dayton to Columbus
where there is better instability.

A strong cold front will push through late Saturday night into
Sunday.  Thunderstorms will be possible with the front and therefore
have thunder mention in across the entire forecast area in advance
of this feature.  With the strong wind field associated with this
feature cannot rule out some isolated damaging winds.

With the passage of this front winds will become quite gusty.  The
GFS is more pronounced with this than the ECMWF.  Increased wind
gusts on Sunday, however did not go as high as the GFS.  Capped wind
gusts around 40 mph at this time.  With CAA on Sunday temperatures
will drop some through the day.  Cu will also be possible due to
this.

The several rounds of rainfall that are expected in the long term
period will lead to rises on area creeks and streams, along with he
potential for flooding.  Continued this mention in the HWO.

The long term will end with dry conditions on Monday with high
pressure across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winds will increase early in the TAF period with gusts up to 30
kt during the day. Winds will diminish a bit after 21Z. After
00Z there may be some continued gusts up to 20 kt. VFR will
prevail through most of the period. There may be few to
scattered cumulus during the day with varying amounts of mid to
high clouds. A VFR ceilings will likely develop towards 00Z.
This ceiling is expected to lower to MVFR late as a cold front
approaches the terminals.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely into
Thursday. At least MVFR conditions are likely to continue
through Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Maximum Temperatures for February 20...
CVG...72 degrees...1891/2016
CMH...68 degrees...1891/2016
DAY...69 degrees...2016

Record High Minimum Temperatures for February 20...
CVG...52 degrees...1994
CMH...49 degrees...1930
DAY...49 degrees...1930

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...



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