Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 242029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL SLOWLY
GET SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT SO THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL SEEM LIMITED. SO
WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...THE CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE
RAIN REMAINS QUITE LOW. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AND THEN START TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS SHADED TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS WHILE LOWS
STAYED NEAR MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FA.  TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
FA MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.  YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE IN
GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY AND THIS LONG
TERM FORECAST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED INTO THE FA WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

GOING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE FA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.  BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BY THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO HAVE EXITED MOST OF THE FA.  THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FEATURE.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS SOLUTION IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF LOWER VFR/MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA HAS GENERALLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND GENERALLY JUST
ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND
PUSH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS SO IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH SOME LIFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KLUK. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND SREF ARE SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING IN WITH THE FRONT TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






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