Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 230814
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...COVERING A WIDE EXPANSE OF LAND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
COUNTRY STILL REMAINS RATHER AMPLIFIED...BUT WITH RIDGING
DEFINITELY THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THE ONLY MOISTURE FEED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS WITH
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS SIMPLE
AS IT CAN GET...WITH ZERO POPS AND ZERO SKY...AND LIGHT ENE FLOW
REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS. YESTERDAY...AS PER THE 00Z KILN
SOUNDING...MIXING MADE IT UP TO ABOUT 4500 FEET. EXPECTING SIMILAR
MIXING CONDITIONS TODAY...AND BASED ON THE FORECAST 2-3 DEGREE
CELSIUS RISES AT 850MB...A RISE IN TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. THE GOING MAX
TEMP FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THE DRY AIR
MASS SUPPORTS A WIDE DIURNAL TREND...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE AS COOL AS THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW OUTLYING AREAS THIS
MORNING...A RECOVERY OF A SOLID 30 DEGREES APPEARS A VERY
REASONABLE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ILN CWA WILL REMAIN STUCK RATHER FIRMLY BETWEEN TWO NNE-MOVING
STREAMS OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN OHIO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CIRRUS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PLAINS COULD MOVE OVER INDIANA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IF
NEITHER OF THESE SOURCES OF CLOUDS END UP MOVING OVER THE ILN
CWA...IT MAY WELL REMAIN COMPLETELY CLEAR THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AT SOME POINT...THINGS MAY MOISTEN UP JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A FEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT RH PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST
THIS IS LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AT THE VERY EARLIEST.

AS OPPOSED TO THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
A WARMER STARTING POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY A BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER INCREASE OF A FEW DEGREES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...MODEL 850MB/925MB TEMPS
ARE RELATIVELY STAGNANT. ALSO...THE SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IS LIGHT
AND EASTERLY...NEUTRAL TO VERY SLIGHTLY COOL IN TERMS OF
ADVECTION. THUS...THE MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRETTY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO
WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A S/W DIGGING UNDERNEATH
THE ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE. HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE INTO LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY.

AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ERRED ON THE WARM SIDE OF DAYTIME HIGHS AND
THE COOL SIDE OF NIGHTTIME LOWS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. THIS STILL
PUTS TEMPS ABOUT 7-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGHS AND 4-6 DEG ABOVE ON
LOWS. GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAD A 2-4 DEG RANGE ON BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...INDICATING FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND THE FCST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLUK (IFR
VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING AND MINOR MVFR VSBYS AT KILN/KLCK...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN





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