Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 312018
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ON STRONG NORTH WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
COULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ALL WEEKEND...WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING
OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF THE DIGGING H5 LOW TONIGHT...BUT
DIFFER WITH THE SMALLER FEATURES. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN TONIGHT
AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE. THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW
MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THE CRITICAL THICKNESSES DROP. LEANED
TOWARDS THE RAP/HRRR WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. THE RAP DROPS 1000-850 CRITICAL THICKNESSES ENUF FOR SNOW
TO BEGIN MIXING IN BEGINNING AROUND 03-04Z IN THE NW. THE
THICKNESSES SLOWLY DROP S THEN E AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. IT IS
LOOKING LIKE THE SCIOTO VALLEY WILL MANAGE TO STAY RAIN THRU THE
EVENT. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WANT TO LINGER THE PCPN IN THE COLD AIR
LONGER THAN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
SNOW TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING.
CONTINUED WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH...MAINLY ON
GRASSY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO AND NRN KY.
ALSO CONTINUED WITH THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF THE
FA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OF BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE H5 LOW SHIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO EAST COAST SATURDAY
MORNING...SOME PCPN WILL LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. COLD NLY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT A VERY COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BUILDING SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THE CLOUDS FROM W TO E. WITH THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SE INDIANA WHERE LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 20S. IN THE EXTREME ERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE AROUND 30. CONTINUED FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE FA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION SUNDAY. DESPITE
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL START OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERMITTING THE
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
REINFORCE THIS FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ELONGATED AXIS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SPAWNING IT STRENGTHENS AND OCCLUDES OVER HUDSON
BAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS
BACK...STRONG ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT A 5 DEG
JUMP IN HIGHS ON THIS DAY. WED AND THURS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS AND THEN SEE A DROP AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
USHERS IN COOLER AIR. GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
HIGH WITH THE GFS FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER PUSHING IN COOLER
AIR...AND THE EURO ACTUALLY OVER THE REGION PERMITTING A WARMUP WITH
MORE WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY DROP VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. MEANWHILE CEILINGS WILL BE
MVFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN
THAT. SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS IN THE
CINCINNATI AREA LATE TODAY. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AFTER
00Z AND WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN EXPECT THIS TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT AROUND COLUMBUS WHERE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID. MVFR CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FT WILL PREVAIL AND
SOME PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT WHILE VERY SLOWLY
VEERING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY
LIFTING ALTHOUGH REMAINING MVFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072-077>081.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...






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