Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 311957
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
357 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WITH QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY EVENING.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER WESTERN PA TO TRACK SE WITH WESTWARD TRAILING
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE CLOUDS AND WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND DRY CONDITIONS HAS LEAD TO
AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING
ACRS THE SCIOTO VALLEY THRU 8 PM WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE ACRS THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN WINDS AND CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S FAR NE TO THE UPPER 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY WED EVENING. A RETURN
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES ON WED WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT ONE CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE WED NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S NE TO THE UPPER 40S SW.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE
INTO OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT. NRN STREAM ENERGY TO PASS NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SRN STREAM TROF HOLDING THE FRONT BACK OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. THIS KEEPS ILN/S FA IN A MOIST SWRLY FLOW. 50-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 250 PERCENT
OF NORMAL OR 2 TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL INCREASE POPS TO LKLY ACRS THE WEST THURSDAY AFTN AND
CATEGORICAL THURSDAY NIGHT. MARGINAL INSTBY DEVELOPS THU AFTN/THU
EVE. WITH THE FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST AND MARGINAL INSTBY THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED. DUE TO THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY.

WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

IN STRONG WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES TO BE 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY FROM SW TO NE PORTIONS OF THE FA.  WITH THIS
BOUNDARY IN PLACE EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS RAIN IN ADDITION WITH RAINFALL BEFORE THIS TIME MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES.  THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA COLDER AIR WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA.  THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.  BRING THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THAT TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WILL IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING CLIPPER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO START...BUT A BAND OF CLOUDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE
MOVING SOUTH TO TAF SITES. NORTHERN TAF SITES CMH LCK DAY AND ILN SHOULD
SEE THE MOST CLOUD COVER WHILE OTHER SITES SHOULD SEE LESS AS THEY
ARE FARTHER FROM THE SOURCE REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
REMAIN VFR BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF MODEL PROJECTIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG UNTIL AROUND 00Z AFTER WHICH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ064-065-
     073-074-081-082-088.
KY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ099-100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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