Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 010301
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1101 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO
KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM AIR WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CWA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 40S. VERY
TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AND LATE EVENING TRENDS ARE NOT
LENDING ANY CONFIDENCE. DESPITE THE BREAKS...FEEL STRATUS COULD
EXPAND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A
COLD ADVECTING N/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. A VORT MAX SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
AND A WEAK LOW SEEN IN LOWER LEVELS MAY AID IN CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...AND KEPT SPRINKLES IN THE CENTRAL OHIO FORECAST AS
WELL BECAUSE OF THESE. BROADBRUSHED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 3/4 OR SO OF THE CWA GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SREF
DATA...SIMULATED SATELLITE AND GIVEN THIS AREA HAS THE LEAST
CHANCE FOR DENSE OVERCAST. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT DENSER
FOG IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS IN RIVER VALLEYS.
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WEST OF COLUMBUS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS BEING
MAXIMIZED...WITH A FEW LOWER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD POOL AXIS WILL MIGRATE FROM RICHMOND/WILMINGTON TO
TOLEDO/ZANESVILLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. THIS WILL LEAVE A
CLOUDY PERIOD EARLY IN CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL BREAK UP IN THE LATE
MORNING...ENOUGH TO PUSH HIGHS TO AT LEAST 70 DEGREES...LIKELY
LOWER 70S. SOUTH OF AND ALONG OHIO RIVER WILL SEE READINGS WELL
INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 70S.

FORECAST IS IN FAIRLY SOLID SHAPE FOR THIS PERIOD UNTIL THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THINGS SHOULD STAY
DRY AND WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REALLY BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. THIS N-S ORIENTED FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND THE WARM AIR
AHEAD OF IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET OF 40KT OR
SO RIGHT OFF OF THE DECK. PM LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILD...ABOUT A 10 DEGREE JUMP FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN CWA AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE 30.12Z NAM AND
CANADIAN PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SLOWING
THE FRONT DOWN A BIT WHILE THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN SPEEDING IT UP.
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THESE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH A LITTLE
MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF FOR ITS SLIGHTLY BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. FORCING FROM THE FRONT
AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF 40. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT ALL SITES. POST FRONTAL STRATUS HAS BEEN MORPHING UNEVENLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR BREAKS NOW
DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES AND EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING. WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT
925MB...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK TO EXPAND AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. IFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO BE MOST LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS SITES...AND HAVE
INCLUDED THEM AT DAY AND ILN DESPITE THESE AREAS BEING CLOSER TO
THE FRINGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WHERE CLEARER SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN CINCINNATI...WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT COLD
ADVECTION FLOW...LIMITED VSBY TO MVFR AT CVG BUT ALLOWED IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEY AT LUK. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT THE OTHER SITES MAY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY AND
STRATUS DEVELOPS (I.E. CLEARER LONGER COULD MEAN LOWER VSBY)...BUT
IFR IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST COMPUTER MODELS OF ANY LOW
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT
FLOW AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN...MIXING MAY LOSE OUT TO
SUBSIDENCE AND CLOUDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS SITES...AND HAVE KEPT A CIG
THERE...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST IMPROVE TOWARD VFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...SNYDER






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