Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 010945
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WHEN A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF TAKING THE SURFACE LOW
FARTHER NORTH AND THEREFORE PULLING WARM AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING A DRY SLOT
INTO THE FA TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE
SNOW AMOUNTS...THEREFORE HAD TO DROP THE ADVISORIES ON THE SRN
EDGE AND DOWNGRADE SOME WARNING COUNTIES TO ADVISORY.


LATEST RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS ARE SHOWING THAT THE INITIAL SHOT OF
PCPN HAS LIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA. THIS HAS BROUGHT
AN END TO THE THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN IN THE SOUTH...SO CANCELLED
THE ADVISORY EARLY THERE. THE PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
THIS MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN. BY LATE MORNING COULD
SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTH WITH THIS SHOT.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL PUSH BACK IN AFT 18Z FROM
W TO E. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE WARM ENUF FOR IT TO FALL AS RAIN.

UPPED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL PUSH INTO
THE 40S...WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST FROM I-70 NORTHWARD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE FA THIS EVENING. COLD AIR WILL BE
PULLED BACK INTO THE REGION CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES AS AN AREA OF FORCING JUST NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK COMBINES WITH THE COLDER AIR.

THE LOW WILL BE MOVING BE IN WRN PA BY 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AREA WIDE BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SNOW IN THE NORTH WILL BE
THERE COULD BE SLIPPY SPOTS ON ROADS AS THE PCPN FREEZES AS THE
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING.

COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WONT BE RECOVERING TOO MUCH MONDAY IN
THE NW AND WILL BE FALLING IN THE SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANG FROM THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FLOW BACKS WESTERLY A HEAD OF DIGGING TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
WITH A QUICK MORNING SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH. PCPN WILL LKLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN
IN THE SOUTH PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED AFTN. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NE TO THE UPPER 20S SW. HIGHS ON
WED FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FAR SOUTH.

REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN
TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY
WEATHER ON TAP WITH WED NIGHT/S LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SNOW PACK WILL EXIST TO NEAR 20 SE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

THIS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NW TO NEAR 10 SE.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SOME
SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH AND WARMING ON
SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. MODEL SOLN
SPREAD LARGE NEXT SATURDAY REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF NEXT
SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY THRU SAT AFTN ATTM MORE LIKE THE GFS SOLN
BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN TAF SITES KDAY AND
KCMH/LCK UNTIL ABOUT 9Z AT KDAY AND 12Z FOR KCMH/LCK. A DRY PUNCH
WILL PULL IN WARM AIR AND PRECIP SHOULD SHUT OFF FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE DAY TODAY AT MOST SITES...WITH KCMH/LCK HANGING ON TO THE
LOWER CIGS IN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

IN THE AFTERNOON...TOWARDS 20Z...THE PREVAILING RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF
KCVG AFTER 0Z AND UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...THE WARM AIR WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS THE LOW
CROSSES AND WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT WILL ACCOMPANY A RAPID
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RESPITE IN PRECIP DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...CIGS WILL BE MVFR AND COULD DROP TO IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042-045-
     046-051-052-054>056.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     043-044.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







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