Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 050039
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AN
ADDITIONAL WAVE TRAVELING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SLEET CHANGING TO SNOW
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...WITH TRANSITION TO SNOW COMPLETE...UPDATED SNOW AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FROM CVG SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL ROUGHLY THE SAME
CATEGORY OF OBSERVATIONS. GETTING SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-2"
GENERALLY SOUTH OF CINCINNATI. ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS...BUT
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT FORECAST THE SAME.

PREV NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...WITH SLEET/SNOW/RAIN MIX
ESSENTIALLY IN THE CURRENTLY DEFINED FLOOD WATCH AREA. ONLY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOW TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW TIMING WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE PUSH CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I71 CORRIDOR
AND INTO SE INDIANA.

CONTINUED TO USE A QPF BLEND FROM 12Z GFS/12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF AND HI
RES ARW. A LITTLE ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE FAR SE FORECAST AREAS HAVE
BUMPED TOTALS UP VERY SLIGHTLY HERE. THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE
FORECAST IS IN THE SHARP GRADIENT AND THE WARNING/ADVISORY
JUNCTURE.

WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FCST AREA IN BEST POSITION WITH
RELATION TO THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION LOCATION AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING AND HEAVY ACCUMULATION AT TIMES IS HIGHEST ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAR SOUTH.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALSO BASED ON CHANGING TEMPERATURE REGIME...WITH
WESTERN PERIPHERY NOW NEAR 30-32...SO LOW SNOW/WATER RATIOS TO
BEGIN THE EVENT WITH HIGHER RATIOS ESPECIALLY NEAR/AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE DEPARTING THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...JUST LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIMINISHING QUICKLY. ALL 3 CLIMATE
STATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES.
AND WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LOW MIN VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS WITH FRESH DEEP SNOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HOVER ON
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT DO APPROACH
-10 IN THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

HEMISPHERIC/NOAM FLOW TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH /IN TIME/ WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BLOCKING STRUCTURE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL KEEP THE BULK OF OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF WRN CANADA ATOP
THIS FEATURE. THUS..SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BOTH WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE IS
CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE OTHER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE POSSESSES DEEP MOISTURE OR
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION...SO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ACCUMULATING
EVENT AT THIS TIME. MAY BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING BY THE
SECOND WAVE THAT RA/SN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

COLDEST DAY IS FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AFTER A VERY COLD
START. STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FLOW IS TURNING
AROUND AND THUS WARMER THAN PVS NIGHTS.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW WITH LOWERED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. ALL
SITES CAN EXPECT IFR THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND LUK WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE LIFR WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW 1 MILE IN MODERATE SNOW.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR FOR A SHORT PERIOD AFTER THE SNOW
MOVES EAST LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND 12Z IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
     071>074-077>082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ054>056-
     062-070.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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