Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 052339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW CLEARING THAT HAS WORKED
INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN HEATING...ENHANCED CUMULUS
HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA
ALONG THE OHIO-INDIANA BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO MAY SPREAD
INTO COUNTIES TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH BY THAT TIME WILL BE
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. SHEAR MAY
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT WITH GOOD FORCING COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR
SATURDAY WHEN THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY ESPECIALLY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO WARM UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.  AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
NORTHWARDS AS WELL.

SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THIS TIME.  WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND DURING THIS TIME. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH
SYSTEM.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER.  AT THIS
POINT TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.  WENT CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS OHIO. CLOUD COVER
GENERALLY ON A DECREASING TREND WILL FEATURE ALTOCUMULUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS ABOVE 3000 FT MOVING ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS STARTING OUT RATHER BRISK WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WHILE SETTLING DOWN UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING BACK TO JUST ABOVE 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST WINDS AT CVG AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO



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