Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 012347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...CULMINATING ON
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS OF STORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT...TOWARDS DAYBREAK...IN NORTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG A
LINE RUNNING FROM RICHMOND THROUGH GREENVILLE TOWARDS WAPAKONETA.

AS THIS TIME...3 HOUR FFG VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 3 INCHES IN
THIS AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP EARLY AND TRAIN OVER THE REGION
STARTING IN THE EVENING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.
AT THIS TIME...MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BUT THE AXIS OF THE
SW-NE LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY TRAIN IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE. THE
AREA HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SOAK UP A GOOD BIT OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED
BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY RUNOFF.

WPC PRODUCTS SEEM TO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WHERE THE RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY VERSUS WHERE THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXCEED
FF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THE TIME DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE SW-NE AXIS MORE INTO THE CWA AND ALONG THE
I-71 CORRIDOR. AREAS THAT SAW EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY MAY
BE HIT WITH ANOTHER SOAKER...BUT THE UNUSUALLY HIGH VALUES SHOULD
NOT MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE...AT LEAST OVER WARREN AND GREENE
COUNTIES. PRECIP DURING THE DAY OVER THE CWA WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
AND EXPAND SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE REST OF CWA BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUTED DUE TO THE RAINFALL...GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S...SOME MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
PROVIDE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AND USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR. THE DRIEST AIR AND SUBSEQUENT
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH THE AREA EAST OF COLUMBUS
GETTING THE BEST COOLING BOTH TUES AND WED NIGHTS. NORTH OF DAYTON
ON WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THE RETURNING WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING UP THROUGH THE WRN OHIO
VALLEY. AS FRONT LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

BY FRIDAY...A CDFNT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A RANGE ON THE FROPA TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
QUICKEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE.
BOTH MODELS SHOW FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PUT THE BEST POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH 50 POP ACROSS THE REGION. REDEVELOPED THE PCPN SATURDAY MORNING
WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER POPS TO THE NW.

THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH LEAVES LINGERING PCPN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH. HELD ON TO 20 POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN NRN KY. BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT KILN VERY
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A MID DECK WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER
06Z WITH SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES
IN THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. HAVE USED A SOMEWHAT FASTER SOLUTION
WHICH WOULD BRING THE PRECIPITATION IN BEFORE 12Z. APPEARS THAT
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND THUS BETTER CHANCE OF PREVAILING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT KDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF/MOVING
EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...





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