Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 060649
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
249 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.

TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.

FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER OVER THE ERN U.S. AND ANOTHER NEAR HUDSON BAY IN A
RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN 12Z SAT. THE HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW HAS A
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THIS
TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z MON. IN SPITE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS...LOOKS PRETTY DRY OVERALL AND QUIET.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z MON AND TROUGHING ACROSS SW CANADA WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A TROUGH
IN ERN CANADA. UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z TUE.
BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR 12Z WED WITH OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU
WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET AS
POPS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS A
DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER DESPITE HIGH PRES EXITING AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. MARGINAL LLWS IS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AT KIWD/KSAW WITH STRONGER WINDS NOTED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION PER
KMQT/KDLH VAD WIND PROFILES AND MODEL FCSTS. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO
THE N AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO MOSTLY A VCSH WAS UTILIZED IN FCST. MIGHT BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A SHRA DOES AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD AND KCMX AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MARINE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STABILIZES THE
NEAR SFC LAYER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON/KLUBER
MARINE...KC


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