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000
FXUS63 KMQT 081120
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
620 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA REMAINS
IN PLACE THIS MORNING. THERE IS ONE WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AT THIS
TIME AND WILL BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND IS HELPING TO SLIDE
A SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEAST
FROM THIS HIGH AND INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
CAN SEE THE DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH ALREADY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS STRETCHING
FROM BIG FORK MINNESOTA TO THUNDER BAY AND TO CWNZ. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND PRODUCE DECREASING CLOUDS.

BEFORE THAT OCCURS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO MVFR CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AIDED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW. 925MB TEMPS AROUND -13.5C WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER (GENERALLY SMALL AREA
OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE) FROM THE SOUTHERLY PUSH ON THURSDAY. DON/T
THINK THIS WILL PROVIDE MUCH HELP...BUT WITH THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE CLOUD LAYER...WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING VERY FLUFFY SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT ARE A LITTLE OVER A HALF
INCH...SO HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP THROUGH 12Z TO TOTAL
ABOUT AN INCH FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY.
UNFORTUNATELY...RADAR COVERAGE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL IS
NON-EXISTANT...BUT OBS GENERALLY INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ELSEWHERE OVER
THE WEST WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 5MI. SINCE THE 950-900MB
MOISTURE IN THE MODELS MATCHES UP WELL WITH CURRENT BACK EDGE OF
CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...HAVE FOLLOWED
THAT PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. THIS HAS AREA OF
CLOUDS SCOURING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 12 AND 15-18Z. WITH
THE DECREASING MOISTURE...HAVE SHOWN A CONTINUOUS FALL TO THE POPS
THROUGH MID MORNING AND ONLY HAVE LIGHT FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH
AROUND NOON IN THE FAVORED NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND AREAS. WILL PLAY THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR SKY COVER AND CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS PARTLY
CLOUDY. THE LINGERING MOISTURE SHOWN ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DOES LEAVE
SOME CONCERN THAT EVEN IF SKIES SCATTER OUT BY MID DAY...THEY COULD
FILL BACK IN WITH DIURNAL HEATING. BUT WITH THE RIDGE MOVING IN AND
WINDS BACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WOULD EXPECT THE DRY AIR TO
WIN OUT BY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 20S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER TEENS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE COOLING AFFECT OF THE ICE AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A QUICK FALL IN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE RETURN FLOW HASN/T DEVELOPED.
COLD SEE SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS FALLING AROUND ZERO...SO HAVE
LOWERED LOWS THERE A COUPLE DEGREES. THEN AS AREA COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE SHOWN A RISING TREND TO
THE TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY WEST). OVERNIGHT...THE APPROACHING
LOW AND SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH 12Z. THAT LINES UP WITH THE BEST
LOW LEVEL WAA AND AXIS OF 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS FROM THE EXITING RIDGE WILL ALSO AID IN EVAPORATING
ANY OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS FROM THE MID CLOUD OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME PRECIP BEFORE 12Z WOULD BE ISLE ROYALE AND MAYBE NEAR COPPER
HARBOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FROM SUN INTO MON WILL
ALLOW MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE WINTER...A REBUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT ALLOWS COLDER AIR
TO SPILL BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUE INTO WED. TEMPS WILL THEN
REBOUND FROM THU INTO FRI AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE WRN LAKES. ONLY WEAK SHRTWVS ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH
THE REGION WITH MINIMAL PCPN EXPECTED.

SUN...THE GFS HAS JOINED THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AND ECMWF IN KEEPING
MOST OF THE WAA PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN ONTARIO SHRTWV AND
850-700 MB FRONTAL BOUNDAY TO THE NORTH OF CWA...WHERE THE DEEPER
SATURATION IS MOST LIKELY. EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...EXCEPT OVER THE EAST WHERE
THE CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR WILL PERSIST.

SUN NIGHT...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL
FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FCST OVER THE CWA...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE NORTH FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW.

MON...MDLS SUGGEST ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHRTWV WILL AGAIN MOVE
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ECMWF
WAS PREFERRED WHICH KEEPS THE PCPN MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF UPPER
MI...WHERE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION IS MAXIMIZED. IF ANY
PCPN DOES DEVELOP OVER UPPER MI...IT MAY ALSO MIX WITH RAIN AS MUCH
MILDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE FCST MAINTAINED
CONTINUITY...USING CONSENSUS FCST FOR MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR TEMPS CLIMBING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE
FCST(PER NAM/ECMWF)...ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUD COVER THINS OUT.
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID
30S LINGERING OVER THE EAST AND THE KEWEENAW.

TUE...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS GREATEST...AS LOW LEVEL
NNE WIND INCREASE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME DIRUNAL -SHSN/FLURRIES
AS RELATIVELY STEEP SFC-800 MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP.

WED-FRI...SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES AND WAA DEVELOPS. WITH
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND ONLY WEAK SIGNAL FOR PCPN...NO PCPN WAS
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL THREE SITES FOR THE FIRST
3-6HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE DRIER AIR CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR (AND ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE)
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BRING AN END
TO THE LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS A
POCKET OF DRIER AIR OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT COULD CAUSE
KSAW TO SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SCATTERING OUT.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT AFTER INITIAL AREA OF
CLOUDS DEPART.  WHILE THIS WILL TAKE A BULK OF THE MOISTURE...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH HELP FROM THE SUN TO LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
(LARGELY KIWD/KSAW). OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH KCMX COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT
THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. THE FIRST OF TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 15-25KTS ON SUNDAY. THE SECOND AND
STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25KTS
UNTIL THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THERE COULD BE A FEW NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO 25KTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF