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000 FXUS63 KMQT 202342 AAA AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 640 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUN)... /ISSUED AT 343 PM EST/ UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT BEND REGION OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND WARM FOR A WHILE LONGER. THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND THIS WILL PUSH UP A RIDGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND HOW MUCH OF IT AND WHEN IT FORMS. LOOKS GOOD FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. ONLY PROBLEM IS NAM WHICH IS MODEL I FOLLOWED IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AROUND HERE AS IT DOES NOT GET SCOURED OUT...SO FOG LOOKS GOOD. WILL GO WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND FORM A LITTLE EARLIER AS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS. THINK FOG WILL FORM IN THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ANYWAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO GOING TEMPERATURES OR TO WEATHER OTHERWISE. .LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI)... /ISSUED AT 343 PM EST/ HIGHER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE OVR THE GREAT LAKES ONLY SLOWLY FALL INTO SUNDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND CNTRL CANADA. GFS/NAM/ECMWF TRENDED SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...KEEPING MAJORITY OF ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF TO THE WEST OF UPR MI THROUGH SUN AFTN. PREV FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE FEW CHANGES. TRIMMED EAST EXTENT OF POPS SUN NIGHT AS RIBBON OF HIER H85 DWPNTS AND CONVERGENCE PERSISTS OVR WRN UPR MI INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPR MI INDICATE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE H9-H8 LAYER...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S. PCPN CHANCES ON MONDAY LOOK PRETTY MEAGER AS UPR LAKES ARE BTWN TROUGH EXITING TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER TROUGH FORMING OVR THE CENTRAL CONUS. KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. OVERALL...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE NW CONUS. TO START OFF...GFS REMAINS IN OPPOSITION TO UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES FM THE CANADIAN/GEFS/ECMWF. SO...DESPITE THE GFS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS UPR LAKES TUE AND HEADING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA BY WED...HAVE DISCOUNTED ITS OUTLIER SOLUTION AS RIDGE OVR THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD HOLD FIRM. INSTEAD PREFER SOLUTION SHOWN BY MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE WITH A CLOSED OFF TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY TUE MORNING...THEN SLOWLY GRINDING INTO THE UPR LAKES WED INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. IT IS INTERESTING THAT ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS VERY DIFFERENT FM OTHER GUIDANCE FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK...IT ACTUALLY DOES COME BACK INTO SOME AGREEMENT BY LATE WEEK AS IT SHOWS GENERAL TROUGHING/COLDER AIR OVR THE UPR LAKES. DETAILS...INCLUDING TIMING OF WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN OCCURS AND THE ALL IMPORTANT PTYPE QUESTION...REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN. GOING WITH THE PREFERRED ECMWF/CANADIAN IDEA...THE MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN OCCURS WED INTO WED NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN LINGERING INTO THANKSGIVING. AGAIN...GFS SOLN WOULD BE 18-24 HR EARLIER THAN THIS. INITIAL PCPN INTO WED WOULD BE MAINLY RAIN AS THE UPR LOW/SFC LOWS AND SLUG OF WARMER AIR LIFT TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN. CANADIAN IS EVEN A BIT FARTHER WEST...SUGGESTING MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. BY WED NIGHT INTO THU...MAJORITY OF PCPN WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR HEADS TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR COLDEST AIRMASS SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL (H85 TEMPS FALLING BLO -10C)...TO SURGE INTO THE UPR LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF A MODERATE STRENGTH SYSTEM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS IT COULD AFFECT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL BEFORE THANKSGIVING. MAIN RESULT FOR THANKSGIVING INTO FRI IS COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN HAVE BEEN SEEN MOST OF NOVEMBER AND THE CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC SNOW ON THU TRANSITIONING TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THU INTO FRI... MAINLY IN AREAS FAVORED BY NW FLOW CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR. BOUT OF COLDER TEMPS LOOKS BRIEF THOUGH WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO REBOUND NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/... QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FCST TONIGHT AT KCMX/KSAW. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AS IT WAS NOT ABLE TO MIX OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND THAT BRINGS A POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WRLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MI...BUT WITH SUCH LIGHT FLOW...IT`S UNCERTAIN IF THE DRYING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. KCMX PROBABLY HAS THE BEST CHC OF AVOIDING SIGNIFICANT FOG WITH DRIER AIR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. DID NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN MVFR VIS THERE TONIGHT. AT KSAW...FOG SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT... BUT WITH LIGHT WRLY WINDS...WHICH IS A DOWNSLOPING DIRECTION...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW VIS MAY GO. MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FCST OF LOWERING VIS TO IFR THIS EVENING...BUT OPTED TO DROP VIS FURTHER TO LIFR LATE IN THE NIGHT SINCE W WINDS WILL BE SO LIGHT. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT KCMX/KSAW SAT UNDER DEEP DRY AIRMASS. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/... WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND KEEPS SYSTEMS OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE WED AS A STORM SYSTEM COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...07
