Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 271122
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE SE...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK TO THE UPPER LAKES. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS N
OF MAINE 24HRS AGO HAS TRACKED W AND SW AND IS NOW OVER NE LWR
MI/LAKE HURON. WHILE THIS WAVE HAS HELPED PUSH CLOUDS W INTO UPPER
MI...CLOUDS HAVE NOT SPREAD AS FAR W AS EXPECTED...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS
ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATED. AS OF 08Z...W EDGE OF
THE STRATOCU DECK RUNS FROM NE LAKE SUPERIOR TO ROUGHLY MUNISING-
ESCANABA. CLOUDS BRIEFLY EXTENDED W INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT.

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.
LOOKING N...W EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS A LITTLE FARTHER W IN
NRN ONTARIO THAN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS MAY BE KEY TO
SPREADING CLOUDS INTO MORE OF UPPER MI TODAY UNDER NNE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DIVERGENCE OVER
THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT DROP SSW
OVER THE LAKE. THE COMPETING SIGNALS MAKE THE CLOUD FCST IN CNTRL
UPPER MI QUITE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...FCST REFLECTS SOME WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF CLOUDS IN CNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE COOLER AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE E DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR W TO PARTLY CLOUDY EAST...PERHAPS
MOSTLY CLOUDY FAR EAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A ROLE IN MIN TEMPS OVER THE E TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

THE WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS IS EDGING W ACROSS ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL PROBABLY AFFECT KSAW FOR A TIME TODAY. SINCE
SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST BACKING
OFF ON THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS AT KSAW...THIS FCST WILL CONTINUE
THE MORE OPTIMISTIC TREND CARRIED IN RECENT FCSTS OVERNIGHT. OCNL
HIGHER END MVFR CIGS SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
FARTHER W INTO DRIER AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S THRU WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 10KT. OVER
THE E...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20KT. AS THE RIDGE
DRIFTS E A BIT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN
ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE
UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO
NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES THU/FRI...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



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