Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 011127
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

THE COMBINATION OF WAA AT 850 MB AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
HGTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LVL RDG FROM THE PLAINS APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE AREA AS NOTED ON RADAR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT STRATOCU LAKE CLOUDS STILL LINGER ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
HOUGHTON THROUGH L`ANSE TO IRON MOUNTAIN IN A LIGHT NORTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NCNTRL WI. CLEARING ALONG THE WI BDR IN GOGEBIC AND WRN
IRON COUNTIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS IN MANY
PLACES. WAKEFIELD HAS EVEN REACHED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A
READING OF 5F IN THE PAST HR.

THE BIG SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THE CLEARING OF
THESE LAKE CLOUDS AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS
FCST AREA TODAY.

TODAY...EXPECT CLEARING OF LAKE CLOUDS TO REACH INTO MQT...DICKINSON
AND MNM COUNTIES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS WINDS BACK MORE NW. CLEARING
WILL BE SLOWEST OVER ERN COUNTIES...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
WHEN ONSHORE NORTHERLY WINDS BACK MORE W-SW. WAA SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 40S W AND SCNTRL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT ONLY MID TO
UPPER 30S FAR EAST WHERE CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED AS METNIONED
BEFORE.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV LIFTING
NEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...MODELS INDICATE INCREASING MID/HI LVL
RH. BUT SINCE THE LLVL FEED OF AIR WL REMAIN DRY AND WITH AN ABSENCE
OF ANY OTHER FORCING UNDER H5 HGT RISES AHEAD OF INCOMING UPR RDG
AXIS...EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/HI CLDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W
HALF. THESE CLDS AND INCREASING SRLY FLOW WL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL
TEMP FALL ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE W HALF. LOOK FOR INLAND MIN TEMPS WEST HALF GENERALLY IN THE MID
20S WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30F ALONG THE LAKE. FOR ERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GRADIENT IS SLACKER/WINDS LIGHTER AND SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF HI CLDS...EXPECT INLAND TEMPS TO FALL CLOSER TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE (AROUND 20F) IN THE PRESENCE OF PWAT LESS THAN .25
INCH OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A WRN
TROF...SHARP CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY SOME AND
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. SOME
AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF
REDEVELOPS. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN THAT BLO NORMAL TEMPS
INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT WEEK AS ERN
TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THEN...
ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES WILL BE PROVIDED BY 2 OR 3 SHORTWAVES THAT
WILL WORK TO CARVE OUT A NEW ERN TROF DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR N AMERICA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL
CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT ARCTIC OCEAN.
AT LOWER LATITUDES...IT APPEARED YESTERDAY THAT A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW
WOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE CONUS. TODAY...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE
A BIT MORE WRN RIDGING PER ECMWF AND MORE OF THE GEM ENSEMBLES TO
HELP DRIVE SOME OF THIS COLD AIR A LITTLE FARTHER S. WITH PACIFIC
FLOW STILL UNDERCUTTING THE WRN RIDGE AND SENDING SHORTWAVES E
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...THERE COULD BE A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PCPN
PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE UPPER LAKES BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD...AIDED BY THE STRENGTHENING TEMP CONTRAST OVER THE
CONTINENT.

BEGINNING SUN...DESPITE CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN HIGH
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND A LOW PRES TROF SHIFTING OUT
OVER THE PLAINS...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVELS REMAINING TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERNS. UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON
SUN WILL RISE INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EVEN WITH SHALLOW MIXING TO
ONLY AROUND 925MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS. IF MIXING REACHES 900MB...
TEMPS WILL TOP 50F. DAYTIME MIXING WILL TAP WINDS UP TO 25-30KT...
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL MAKE THE AIR FEEL COOLER.

ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT
WHILE ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE
SHORTWAVES...SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAINS SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK
OF MEANINGFUL FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. STEADY SW FLOW...
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
NOCTURNAL COOLING. EXPECT MINS IN THE 30S. INTERIOR LOCATIONS THAT
DECOUPLE MORE MAY SLIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY.
MEANWHILE...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP PULL THE BETTER TAP OF GULF MOISTURE A
LITTLE FARTHER W THAN IT APPEARED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BETTER
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY SHORTWAVE...UPPER JET AND
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING SUGGESTS
RAISING POPS FROM PREVIOUS FCST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN FCST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY WEATHER THRU MON MORNING WITH POPS THEN
RAMPING UP MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TUE
MORNING...PCPN WILL MOSTLY END. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN
(MAINLY SNOW) IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME UNDER WESTERLY FLOW TUE/TUE
NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -5/-6C IN THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES.

OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 2 OR 3 SHORTWAVES HEADING SE TO CARVE OUT THE
LATE WEEK ERN TROF...THE FIRST WILL ALREADY BE APPROACHING WED
MORNING. TIMING/INTENSITY/TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE
ARE NOT WELL AGREED UPON BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS MOST
ROBUST WITH THE SFC FEATURE AS IT TAKES A LOW PRES FROM ND ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW AND FOLLOWED BY
THE TYPICAL PERIOD OF STRONG NNW WINDS/GALES AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
THE GEM/ECMWF ARE WEAKER/FARTHER S WITH THE SFC FEATURE. GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE ECMWF...
FCST WILL LEAN MORE STRONGLY TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR WED/THU. SO...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STREAK OF RAIN/SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA WED/WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS. LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW) SHOULD THEN FOLLOW WED NIGHT/THU AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT LEAST -8C WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALSO
DROPPING SE ACROSS THE AREA.

FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY FOR FRI DUE TO POOR MODEL
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. PREVIOUSLY...IT LOOKED LIKE WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT GENERATED PCPN WOULD STREAK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOW THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL DOMINATE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

OTHER THAN AN MVFR LAKE CLOUD DECK LIFTING FROM KSAW AROUND 15Z THIS
MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL JET MAX AHEAD OF LOW PRES TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LLWS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD LATER THIS
EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS WITH FIRST A RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN A TROUGH/COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE MON/MON NIGHT. LOOK FOR WEST WINDS TO BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON TUE/TUE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU...WITH MARGINAL GALES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.