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000
FXUS63 KMQT 121143
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTED SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS SEEN
OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WAS DUE TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS PROVIDING TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO THE LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWERS AND ENDED UP PRODUCING ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW AT OUR OFFICE
THROUGH 2AM. THE INTENSITY HAS REALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR TWO DUE TO THE DRY AIR (ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO) THAT HAS BEEN SURGING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON IR
SATELLITE. WITH LIMITED BREAKS IN THE ICE...THE COLD AIR (RAP
ANALYZED 900MB TEMPERATURES OF -17C) HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE
A COUPLE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD STREAMERS OFF THE OPEN AREA NEAR ISLE
ROYALE AND THAT IS STRETCHING TOWARDS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE
PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS. THIS DRYING ABOVE 900MB HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

SINCE THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A FASTER
END TO THE SNOW. WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO REMAIN THE LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE. LOOKING AT 00Z NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS THEY DO HOLD ONTO MOISTURE RIGHT BELOW THAT INVERSION INTO
THE AFTERNOON FOR KSAW...BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS REALLY SCOUR
THAT MOISTURE OUT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE TREND TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW. AS FOR THE SNOW
SHOWERS...HAVE CUT THAT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THEM MAINLY BEING
CONFINED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN
QUICKLY DIMINISHING DURING THE MORNING WITH THE WINDS STARTING TO
BACK MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WILL MONITOR CLOUD/SNOW TRENDS
THROUGH DAY BREAK AND MAY NEED TO DIMINISH THEM EVEN EARLIER THAN
THE GOING FORECAST.

WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT THAT IS MOVING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT THE
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. THE 3AM OBS
(RANGING FROM 9 DEGREES IN COPPER HARBOR AND 27 IN MENOMINEE) WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST VALUES FOR THE RESPECTIVE LOCATIONS AND ONLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE NORTH AND THE MID
TEENS TO THE SOUTH. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THE WARM MARCH SUN THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED AND DID
ADJUST INLAND WEST AREAS UP A COUPLE DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOR SEVERAL COOP SITES OVER THE WEST THAT REPORT ON A 7AM-7AM
CYCLE...DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY COULD BE NEAR OR BREAK RECORD LOW HIGHS
FOR THE OBS THAT WILL BE REPORTED ON MARCH 13TH.

WITH THE HIGH BEING OVER DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P. THIS EVENING AND
CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP OVER THE WEST AND
CENTRAL INITIALLY WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THOSE AREAS SHOULD SEE
THEIR LOWS EARLIER THAN THE EAST DUE TO THE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...MID CLOUDS WILL BE ARRIVING OVER THE WEST LATE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND COULD EVEN LEAD
TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE 12Z. OVER THE EAST...THE LATER WEAKENING OF THE
WINDS SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE LOWS AND EXPECT THE LONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING TIME TO ALLOW LOWS TO EASILY FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE NH/REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL FOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST...DUE TO IT/S GREAT
PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER ON THESE TYPES OF NIGHTS. DID TREND LOWS
DOWN A LITTLE FOR SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS (RAWS SITES
LIKE DOE LAKE AND SPINCICH LAKE)...WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE VALUES
FALLING INTO THE LOWER -20S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWS
NEARING/BREAKING RECORDS FOR MANISTIQUE (-7 IN 1948) AND MUNISING
(-10 IN 1926).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY RIDGING OVER
WRN NOAM AND THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NERN CONUS...KEEPING TEMPS MAINLY BELOW NORMAL. A CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE AND LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A WARMUP
FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PCPN BUT WILL DRAG MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND.

THU...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WAA WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW WERE
INCLUDED GIVEN ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RELATIVELY
SMALL NET ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER WARMS. A LARGE
SPREAD OF HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 20
NEAR ERY TO 40 AT IWD.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER SHRTWV COMPARED TO THE NAM AND GFS.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LINGERING MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
LOW END PCPN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE CWA FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH HALF. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR
TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FAVOR MAINLY
SNOW. HIGHS SHOULD STILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH UPPER MI WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -14C BY 12Z/SAT
AND -20C BY 00Z/SUN. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SNOW SHOWERS...
AIDED BY HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS SOME GAPS IN THE ICE COVER AND
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z-18Z WHEN
THE GREATER 850-700 MB MOISTURE AND IS PRESENT. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
STILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO AROUND 20 NORTH BUT MAY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SUN-TUE...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION SUN...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER MORNING LOWS
AT OR JUST BELOW ZERO. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH GREATER BY MON-TUE
AS THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE TROUGHING AND COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN WITH A SHRTWV
AND LOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO DIMINISH CLOUDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH THERE AREA A COUPLE LAKE EFFECT BANDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE FROM OPEN WATER NEAR ISLE ROYALE. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN AT KIWD/KCMX THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS (AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS) TO
LINGER...BUT WOULD EXPECT THOSE TO SCATTER OUT AROUND MID DAY. ONCE
THOSE SCATTER OUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
KIWD/KCMX JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

COLD AIR SURGING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS PAST EVENING LED
TO A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS HIGH WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO START
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY INCREASE TO 15-25KTS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR VALUES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY AND PRODUCE WEAKENING WINDS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF