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000
FXUS63 KMQT 181152
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SCT OUT SOME OVR THE CNTRL BUT EXPECT THESE
TO FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SPREADING
OVER THE EAST...BUT BASED ON HIGHER TEMP/DWPNT SPREADS THINK RISK OF
ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG IS PRETTY LOW AND HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF FORECAST.
HAVE ADDED FOG OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THOUGH AS CLEARING SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

REMNANTS OF SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION STILL CLOSE
BY JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE AT 1022MB AT 07Z. BROAD SFC RIDGE
POISED TO SLIDE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE BUT ARE STARTING TO ERODE OVER FAR WEST...THOUGH MID CLOUDS
ARE FILLING RIGHT IN WHERE LOW CLOUDS LEFT OFF. CLEARING OF LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOWER AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WITH NW WINDS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF
FZDZ/DZ THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. MIXING/DRYING
BLO H95 WILL END THIS POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY SHALLOW SO WILL KEEP DZ/FZDZ AS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE. GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF DRYNESS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS...WILL HEAD AWAY FM THE RUC AND KEEP
IDEA THAT SKIES WILL MAINLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN. HIGHER SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP OUT MATTERS. TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER PERHAPS MID 40S NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS WINDS REMAIN
ONSHORE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT MID CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REST OF CWA. CLOUDS ARE
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO AROUND H6 SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CWA. LINGERING DRY AIR BLO H8 ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS TIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING LESSER ON THE QPF INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA. FORCING DECENT THOUGH JUST ABOVE THE DRY LAYER WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K-290K SFCS /H875-H7/ AND MAINLY H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AIMED TOWARD MAINLY
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DELAYED HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL KEPT LOW
CHANCES GIVEN THE FORCING. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN PROVIDED SATURATION OCCURS AS WB
TEMPS AT H925-H85 RISE ABOVE 0C TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT. KEPT
MAINLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS PTYPE BUT INCLUDED CHANCE OF FZRA AS
WELL. DRIER AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR THOUGH...RESTRICTING POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.

FINALLY...FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO THE
TEENS INLAND BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. COOL TEMPS COULD LEAD
TO FOG AS DWPNTS MOST OF TODAY WILL STAY IN THE 20S. COORD WITH WFO
GAYLORD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN CWA WHERE COOLEST TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SINCE CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS/PCPN TOTALS
AND HYDRO IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING
INTO THE PAC NW AND WHICH IS FCST TO SHIFT E ACRS SRN CANADA
SAT/SUN. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WX EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E.


SAT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO ARE
FCST TO BE JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG AT 12Z SAT AND THEN OVER NW ONTARIO
BY 00Z SUN. ALTHOUGH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NW CWA WL BE DRY AT 12Z ON
WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...
VIGOROUS WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/H85-7 WARM FGEN/IMPRESSIVE H3-2 DVGC ON THE SE
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF
UPR MI AS H85 SSW WINDS INCRS UP TO 50 KTS IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
HALF...GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LIGHTER PCPN...IF ANY AT ALL...FALLING
OVER THE FAR SE FARTHER FM THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK AND WHERE DEEPER
DRY AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT. SO MAINTENED LOWER POPS IN THAT AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY NGT...WITH H85 TEMPS AOB 0C AT 12Z SAT AS WELL AS
SOME LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR THAT MAY MAINTAIN WBLB TEMPS JUST
BLO 32 NEAR THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THERE MAY
BE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ON SAT MRNG. BUT ANY MIXED PCPN IN THE MRNG
WL QUICKLY TURN TO RA AS THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS
FOR QPF...THE WETTER MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PCPN FALLING OVER THE NW THRU 00Z SUN. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY AS HIER SFC DEWPTS SURGE TO THE N
OVER THE MELTING SN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LLVL MSTR SURGE AND INDICATES SFC DEWPTS WL RISE TO 45 AT IWD.

SAT NGT...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE E THRU NW ONTARIO ON THE NRN
FLANK OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST
TO DRIFT INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT. WHILE SOME RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR BAND AHEAD OF THIS FNT UNDER THE
DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE N...THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV THAT
IS FCST TO PUSH AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT WL DIMINISH THE PCPN AT LEAST
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING IS FCST TO BE
MOST EMPHATIC. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID
LVL DRYING. WL RETAIN THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON IS FCST TO LIE AT 12Z SUN. GOING FCST
APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS. THERE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH ALL BUT THE FAR W
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUSPECT AREAS OF FOG WL DVLP WITH
MELTING SN/HIER SFC DEWPTS UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING.

SUN...AS THE MID LVL DRYING IMPACTS MOST OF THE CWA ON SUN...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY WX. BUT WL RETAIN SOME POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE ECWMF/CNDN MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND HOLD THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR IN LONGER. MRNG
LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE NW SHOULD BURN OFF TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING/INCRSG SUN ANGLE.

SUN NGT/MON...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY MOVE THRU THE SCENTRAL GRT LKS AND INVIGORATE SHRA ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MSTR RIBBON STRETCHED W-E OVER THE CENTRAL LKS...INCLUDING
AT LEAST THE FAR SCENTRAL CWA. WL RETAIN SOME CHC POPS IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOA NORMAL WITH H85 TEMPS 5 TO 7C. MORE FOG IS
LIKELY SUN NGT OVER THE MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER IF THE MID LVLS DRY OUT AND A WEAK SFC HI WITH LGT WINDS BLDS
OVHD.

EXTENDED...AS AN UPR RDG BLDS OVER THE ROCKIES...AN AMPLIFYING NW
FLOW ALF WL PUSH COOLER CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA ON MON NGT
INTO EARLY TUE...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LGT. TUE INTO WED SHOULD FEATURE
DRY AND COOLER WX WITH CNDN HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WL
THEN ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVES
E FM THE PLAINS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...VARIOUS OPS MODELS SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF PSBL WX. THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SN AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES E AT THE SAME TIME ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDS OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
BUT THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER S WIND THAT
WOULD LIMIT ANY MIXED PCPN TO NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS /STILL IN THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE AT KCMX/ GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT TODAY...FIRST AT KIWD THIS MORNING AND THEN AT KCMX AND
KSAW BY MIDDAY OR MAYBE AS LATE AS THIS AFTN. CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM AT
KSAW IF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH. SOME RAIN AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT KIWD AND KCMX. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS ATTM. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WINDS GENERALLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO MON /AS HI AS THE 50S AWAY FROM LOCAL
LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR
WILL RETURN ON MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST WED...MODERATING THE MELT
DOWN.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE RECENT SNOW STORM AND ON SAT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON
THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ON SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS... AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC