National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heat Wave and Severe Thunderstorms this Independence Day

A prolonged, dangerous heat wave will persist through the Independence Day weekend across the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic. Numerous temperature records are expected. Clusters of severe thunderstorms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic this Independence Day, with potential for widespread damaging winds. Additional severe thunderstorms in the Great Plains. Read More >

Hazardous Weather Conditions

Current conditions at

Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport (KCHO)

Lat: 38.14°NLon: 78.46°WElev: 640ft.

Fair

99°F

37°C

Humidity 38%
Wind Speed Vrbl 5 mph
Barometer 29.99 in (1014.5 mb)
Dewpoint 69°F (21°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index106°F (41°C)
Last update 4 Jul 12:53 pm EDT
Extended Forecast for

Commonwealth VA

Extreme Heat Warning until July 4, 09:00pm
Click here for hazard details and duration
Extreme Heat Warning
  •  
    Extreme Heat Warning until July 4, 09:00pm

    NOW until 9:00pm Sat

    Extreme Heat Warning

  • Independence Day

    High: 103 °F

    Severe
    Thunderstorms

  • Tonight

    Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then isolated showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could be severe. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    Low: 74 °F

    Severe
    Thunderstorms
    and Patchy
    Fog

  • Sunday

    Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    High: 99 °F

    Patchy Fog
    then Chance
    T-storms

  • Sunday Night

    Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then a slight chance of showers between 1am and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    Low: 72 °F

    Showers
    Likely then
    Chance
    Showers

  • Monday

    Monday: A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 90. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

    High: 90 °F

    Slight Chance
    T-storms then
    Showers

  • Monday Night

    Monday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2am. Low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

    Low: 69 °F

    Showers

  • Tuesday

    Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    High: 88 °F

    Partly Sunny
    then Chance
    T-storms

  • Tuesday Night

    Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    Low: 69 °F

    Chance
    T-storms then
    Chance
    Showers

Detailed Forecast

Independence Day
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 103. Heat index values as high as 113. West wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then isolated showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could be severe. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then a slight chance of showers between 1am and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday
A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 90. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2am. Low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday
A chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Basemap Options
Click map to change the forecast location
Loading map...
Forecast Area
Tiles ©ESRI

ABOUT THIS FORECAST

 
Point Forecast:
Commonwealth VA
 38.1°N 78.5°W (Elev. 433 ft)
Last Update:
12:33 pm EDT Jul 4, 2026
Forecast Valid:
1pm EDT Jul 4, 2026-6pm EDT Jul 10, 2026
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Get as KML Get as XML

Additional Resources

Radar & Satellite Image

Link to Local Radar Data Link to Satellite Data

Hourly Weather Forecast

National Digital Forecast Database

National Digital Forecast Database Maximum Temperature Forecast

High Temperature

National Digital Forecast Database Weather Element Forecast

Chance of Precipitation