565
FXUS63 KABR 250029 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
729 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- West to northwest winds with gusts between 45 and 60 mph will
  diminish this evening.

- The unsettled weather pattern continues with chances of showers
  and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday (35-80%
  chance) and Monday 25-35% chance) before things dry out for much
  of the rest of the forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs. Also let the
Wind Advisory expire at 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Occluded low pressure will exit the region this evening. Strong
northwest winds associated with the cold air advection in the upper
low will diminish as well this evening. Some areas along the ND/SD
border did receive a mix of rain and snow as temperatures fell into
the 30s. That`s leaving a big question mark for overnight lows as
clouds clear out. Dewpoints are in the upper 30s and 40s this
afternoon, so don`t have lows falling below 37 degrees right now,
but that`s dependent on places like McPherson county seeing some
rebound after the last of the precip exits over the next couple of
hours. If there`s no recovery, a frost advisory may be warranted.

Heights rise on Saturday and winds shift to the south and east on
the northeast side of another Colorado low. Shortwave energy moving
through the upper flow may generate some showers and thunderstorms
as early as 11am across south central SD before more thunderstorms
develop in increasing instability in the afternoon. Expecting just
general thunder due to limited moisture and temperatures, but 30 to
80% chances for convective showers push east and north on the
shortwaves through the afternoon as a weak sfc trough/boundary
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Sunday morning starts the long term with a shortwave moving across
the area. Deterministic models show this lasting through at least
the first part of Monday afternoon. Monday evening, a ridge starts
to build into the region and looks to last through mid week. We are
starting to see a shortwave ride that ridge across the area on
Thursday. By Friday evening we are on the upwind side of the ridge
and a low reaching down from southern Canada starts to move into the
region.

Sunday will have some chances (25-65%) for rain with that shortwave.
While some storms could form, it is unlikely they will become
severe. Wednesday evening, rain chances (15-25%) return for the rest
of the term as the Thursday (20-40%) shortwave rolls through
followed by the incoming trough on Friday (30-40%). With mid level
lapse rates between 6.5 and 8.5 C/km and MLCAPE values around 1000
to 2000 J/kg (depending on model), some storms have the potential to
become severe Thursday afternoon and evening and potentially again
Friday evening. This is still 6 to 7 days out so things could
change.

Temperatures for the first part of the long term will be rising back
up to around normal with highs in the high 70s to low 80s expected
Wednesday and Thursday. With the increased rain chances Friday,
highs look to be closer to the mid 70s. At the moment, winds look to
remain around normal for the entire period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 711 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A few lingering CIGs around 3000ft at KATY right at the start of
the TAF period, otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the
TAF period. Gusty westerly surface winds will quickly subside
across KABR/KATY by sunset.

For KPIR: CIGs from 20-25k feet Saturday morning are forecast to
gradually lower to around 9-10k feet (BKN-OVC) during the
afternoon hours. There is potential for scattered -SHRA/-TSRA near
and south of KPIR at the very end of the TAF period (22Z-00Z) or
just beyond the TAF period, but with low confidence on timing or
placement of potential precipitation.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...TMT