Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 131738 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1238 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1034 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Satellite and surface obs still showing quite a coverage of snow
yet across the cwa. This combined with light winds and poor
mixing, temperatures will slowly climb through the day. The snow
free areas will be able to better mix and warm up today mainly
south of Pierre. At this time, lower to mid 30s look good for most
of the area with 40s south of Pierre. Updated forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

With an area of high pressure over the region, along with clear
skies and light winds, patchy to areas of fog seems likely.
However, even with a close temp/dew point spread, fog is not
impacting this CWA. Hi-res models are indicating areas of fog
developing yet this morning, mainly in the James River Valley.
With poor mixing winds, the fog may take some time to burn off.

High temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday. Temps at
925 and 850 mb are a few degrees colder and mixing winds will be
rather poor. However, south central SD should be warmer due to
southerly winds this afternoon, along with limited snow cover.

Good southwesterly mixing winds will continue tonight with lows in
the teens and lower 20s. Hi-res models are indicating a weak, down
slope wind event tonight into Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

The region continues to look mostly dry for midweek. Temperatures
continue to cool off a bit from previous forecast highs through
Friday as Arctic high pressure at the sfc now drags in enough cool
air to overcome the warming effects from the upper ridge across
northern SD and west central MN. However, temps will still be above
freezing, so snow melt will continue. If we reach bare ground over
the next couple of days, this could help swing temp trends back

The GFS has fallen more in line with the ECMWF on precip, keeping
the Thu/Fri system farther west and south in the forecast area. Best
chance for widespread precip will be Sunday/Monday as another sfc
low moves through the Plains followed by a closed upper low.
Temps may be warm enough with this system to keep most daytime
precip rain or a mix of rain/snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through today and into Wednesday
morning. Will have to watch for some possible MVFR fog at ABR late
tonight/early Wednesday morning.




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