206
FXUS61 KAKQ 061402
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1002 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues today. A cold front pushes across
the region late Thursday into Thursday evening, with a few
strong to severe storms possible. Behind the front, cooler,
drier conditions push into the region for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid today with highs in the 80s to low 90s. South to
  SW winds will gust 20-25 mph this afternoon.

- Marginal Risk for both severe and excessive rainfall. Showers
  and thunderstorms are expected ahead of an approaching cold
  front this afternoon into the late evening. Damaging wind
  gusts, heavy rain, & frequent lightning are the main threats.

A rather warm/moist airmass remains in place across the region,
with 1.6-1.9" PW on 12z regional RAOBs. Showers have begun to
develop along the pre- frontal trough to the northwest, could
see a few light showers or sprinkles along the US-15 corridor
out in Fluvanna, Louisa and Cumberland Counties late this
morning and early this afternoon. 12z CAMs continue to push
storms into western portions of the area between 18-20z (2-4p),
with storms congealing into a broken line and pushing through
between 4-8p. Areal coverage of showers and storms still appears
to be greatest north of US-460, coincident with best
forcing/kinematics. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are
the main threats from any strong to severe storms, with frequent
lightning also likely in any developing convection. PoPs
increase from NW to SE up to 70-80% this afternoon in that same
18-02z (2-10p) period.

Nudged temps up slightly along the coast for Colonial
Triangle/Hampton Roads region with later convection appearing
likely. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and eastern shore,
low 90s Hampton Roads and NE NC.

Showers/storms exit the area after midnight tonight. Clouds
will scatter out and winds diminish as the front passes through
this evening. Early morning lows in the low 60s inland and in
the upper 60s-around 70 closer to the coast.

Previous discussion 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Conditions are mild, humid, and breezy early this morning with
a warm front situated to the N of the FA. Latest obs indicate
temps in the low-mid 70s with RHs around 80-90%. Winds along
eastern portions of the area are gusting 20-30mph. Mostly dry
this morning, but cannot rule out a few stray sprinkles along
northern portions of the area closer to the front. Meanwhile to
the west, a cold front has reached the western edge of
Appalachia as of latest sfc analysis. As the front approaches
today, thunderstorms are expected to form out ahead of it. Based
on 00z CAMs, storms will likely be quick to congeal into a
linear feature. Initiation likely begins in the early afternoon
across the far NW. Storms then progress to the SE through the
evening and into the overnight hours. There should be no
shortage of instability given with guidance showing MLCAPE
values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range this afternoon. Shear will be
modest, but 20-30kt of bulk shear should be enough to support
some strong to severe storms. Thus, SPC has placed the entire FA
in a marginal risk for severe weather. Main threat will be
damaging winds. Will also note that heavy rain and localized
flooding is in the cards as well. Latest HREF indicates PWs of
1.8-2.0". WPC has placed eastern portions of the area in a
marginal ERO.

Highs today will be in the upper 80s in the SE and mid-upper 80s
elsewhere. SW winds will be gusty through the day with gusts of 20-
30mph (highest along the coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns for Friday and Saturday

- Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday, but should
  remain mostly dry

Drier weather moves in Fri behind the departing cold front as
dewpoints drop into the 50s. Aloft, an upper level low moves into
the Great Lakes on Fri, lingering into early next week. Guidance is
coming into better agreement with pushing the next weakening front
though the region on Sunday night, but it still appears the upper
level low is too close to the local area for enough instability for
much in the way of widespread showers and/or storms on Sunday. Have
introduced low-end Chc PoPs across far northern counties in the
afternoon with slight chc PoPs everywhere else except the SE. May
see slightly higher coverage later in the evening along the coast,
though.

Highs on Friday will reach the low 80s in the NW and on the Eastern
Shore, mid-80s elsewhere. A few degrees cooler on Saturday with
highs mostly in the low 80s. Warm again on Sunday will highs near 90
in the SE and mid-80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Near to below normal temps expected in the early week period
  with warmer temps returning mid-week

- Mostly dry through the early week, but isolated showers
  possible

A bit cooler in the early week period as a fairly deep UL trough
sticks around over the east coast. Highs will be in the upper 70s in
the far N/NW and low 80s elsewhere for Mon and Tues. Temps warm up
into the mid-upper 80s again mid-week once the trough is offshore
and a ridge builds in behind it. Precip in the early week period is
a bit uncertain, but should mainly be dry. However, cannot rule out
a few stray showers with the trough axis nearby. Kept PoPs to Schc
or low-end Chc and limited to the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z TAF period. However, starting
off with some MVFR CIGs at ECG, but clouds should scatter out
over the next few hours. Winds out of the SW and are gusting to
~20kt near the coast. A cold front approaches from the NW
this afternoon. There is a potential for a line of tstms to
develop out ahead of the front Thursday aftn/early evening.
Brief flight restrictions are possible (mainly in vsby) along
with some locally stronger wind gusts (potentially 30-40kt).
Outside of tstms, will be gusty through most of the period with
gusts ~20kt. The front will pass through overnight. Winds
diminish behind the front and clouds scatter out.

Dry and VFR Friday and Saturday behind the cold front. Another
cold front will bring a slight chc of showers/tstms later
Sunday. A slight chc of showers/tstms lingers in to Monday, but
overall VFR conditions should prevail Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through late this
  morning/early afternoon for the Ocean N of Cape Charles, the
  Bay, sound, and James River.


- Chances for showers/storms could cause locally higher winds
  and waves later this afternoon and evening.

- Moderate risk for the northern beaches today.

The pressure gradient has strengthened in between strong sfc low
pressure passing by N of the Great Lakes, and high pressure well
off the SE US coast. Winds are generally from the SW at 15-20 kt
with gusts to around 25 kt. SCAs remain in effect for the Ocean
N of Cape Charles, the Bay, sound, and James River. For the southern
coastal waters, the offshore component has kept seas capped at
around 3 ft, with 3-4 ft seas to the north (and likely
increasing to ~5 ft offshore there over the next few hrs). Given
only occasional gusts to ~25kt and seas staying well below
the 5 ft criteria, have opted to cancel the SCAs across the
southern ocean zones. Winds are expected to gradually diminish
late this morning into the aftn. Offshore, winds will also fall
off but there is some potential for 4-5 ft seas to linger into
the afternoon hours for the waters north of Chincoteague. The
surface cold front moves through the waters late this aftn into
the overnight with sub-SCA conditions prevailing Friday.

A brief surge is expected Friday night/early Sat morning as
winds become northerly with drier/cooler air moving in, but at
this time it looks too brief/marginal for any headlines. Sub-
SCA conditions then prevail through the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

Nuisance to minor coastal flooding occurred across bay- facing
portions of the MD Eastern Shore including Cambridge, Bishops
Head, and Crisfield. High tide has passed and the Coastal Flood
Advisory has been allowed to expire. Additional nuisance
flooding is possible again early Friday morning. Given the
marginal nature will allow current event to expire and defer to
the next shift to issue either a Coastal Flood statement or
Advisory (today`s aftn high tide cycle will not produce any
flooding as it is the lower astronomical tide).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AM/MAM
SHORT TERM...AM/MAM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...