184
FXUS61 KAKQ 111107
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
707 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough moves through the area today, bringing isolated
to scattered showers and storms, mainly near the coast. High pressure
settles across the region on Wednesday, then pushes off the coast
Thursday and Friday, bringing hot conditions to the local area by
the end of the week. A cold front pushes through Friday night, with
slightly cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key message:

- Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon closer to
  the coast. Locally heavy rain and isolated strong storms are
  possible.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level low centered
from eastern Canada to the eastern Great Lakes, with a series of
shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough and pushing
through the mid-Atlantic. The first shortwave is pushing off the
Delmarva coast and taking a cluster of showers/storms that
affected the eastern shore offshore. While a spotty light shower
may pivot through SE VA early, the sky is partly cloudy to
mostly clear elsewhere with lows through sunrise into the mid
to upper 50s well inland, to low- mid 60s along the coast.

The primary feature of interest today will be the next
shortwave, currently located across the OH Valley and forecast
to pivot ESE through this aftn across the local area. Dry
conditions this morning, with a partly to mostly sunny sky will
see increasing clouds late in the morning through the aftn as
this occurs. At the sfc, there will be a lingering trough
extending N from low pressure centered off the SE US coast. This
will lead to some enhanced sfc/low level convergence and
seabreeze boundaries closer to the coast. SPC maintains a
Marginal SVR risk across far SE VA and NE NC for wind/hail.
The limiting factor will be a NE low level flow which will keep
temperatures down in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with modest low
level lapse rates. Additionally, the steeper mid level lapse
rates of 6.5C or greater are forecast to stay farther north
closer to the core of the upper low, perhaps bushing the eastern
shore this aftn, while remaining weaker in the ~5.5C range where
the better moisture and highest PoPs reside in the SE. The NW
flow aloft will provide some shear so if anything becomes
organized enough, at least some isolated stronger downbursts
will be possible, though the extent of this is rather uncertain.
Do anticipate a decent coverage of showers and embedded storms
over far SE VA and NE NC this aftn (with high chc to likely
PoPs). Heavy downpours and locally heavy rain will be possible.
It should be noted that locations at the immediate coast will
have a lower threat than areas about 10-30 miles inland from the
coast. Mainly dry farther inland today. Highs range from the
upper 70s near the immediate coast to the lower 80s inland.

Any showers should end rather quickly this evening, then
becoming mostly clear with lows in the 50s well inland to the
low-mid 60s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday as high pressure
  settles across the area.

The upper trough will be well off to the NE of the local area on
Wed, as an upper level ridge centered across the desert SW
slowly builds eastward. The flow aloft will be from the NW with
light flow in the low levels as a broad area of sfc high
pressure settles over the region, shifting off the coast in the
aftn. Dry with mostly sunny skies in the morning becoming partly
cloudy with SCT Cu in the aftn. Seasonable highs for Wed
ranging from the mid 80s inland to near 80F at the coast, with
dew pts in the 50s to around 60F keeping conditions rather
pleasant. Mostly clear and a little warmer Wed night with lows
primarily ranging through the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with
  highs reaching the low-mid 90s by Friday.

- Cooler but still a little above average for the weekend.
  Likely turning hot next week.


An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds
east late in the week as an upper trough weakens across eastern
Canada. The overall trend is for the upper trough across eastern
Canada to be a little stronger and as such, the core of the
upper ridge stays well off to our W/SW over the Plains states. At
the surface, high pressure will remain centered along the east
coast, gradually sliding offshore. Temperatures will increase
into the mid/upper 80s to around 90F Thursday, with Friday
likely the hottest day of the period with deep mixing and 850 mb
temperatures rising to 18-19C. Highs Friday looks to average
into the mid 90s well inland across central VA/metro RIC, with
upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. However, given the
continental origin of this airmass, dew pts continue to be
fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s (or possibly even the
upper 50s), which will act to mitigate the heat index from being
much warmer than the actual air temp. Near the coast, dew pts
will be a little higher, but given a rather weak pressure
gradient, winds likely back to the SE and keep actual air
temperatures held in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories
look unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid-
upper 90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri
afternoon. A cold front moves through Fri night into Sat, with a
20-30% chc for tstms Friday night (mainly across the NE). For
the weekend, temps cool back closer to normal with highs in the
mid/upper 80s to around 90F inland, to the lower 80s near the
coast. An isolated shower/tstms possible over NE NC Sat aftn but
most places look to stay dry. Lows look to be warmest Thu and
Fri nights as temps likely won`t drop below 70F in urban
locations, with mid to upper 60s over rural interior sections.
Lows by Sat night and Sun night will be a bit cooler, with
60-65F inland and upper 60s at the coast. Expect temperatures to
warm back into the 90s for much of the area on Monday. Beyond
that, particularly by midweek (which is beyond the 7-day
forecast period), shows the potential for the upper level ridge
to become centered over the ern CONUS, though with a lot of
model disagreement. The 00Z/11 ECMWF suggests an extended hot
period while the GFS/Canadian are much weaker and transient with
the ridge. Either way, temperatures look to be above normal
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR to start the TAFs with SCT-BKN clouds at 7-9k ft. Expect to
see CU increase in coverage by mid- late morning (especially
along the coast), with scattered showers and embedded tstms
developing between 15-18Z, enhanced along a sea breeze boundary
across far SE VA/NE NC and the eastern shore. Locally heavy downpours
are likely with any storm, with brief gusty winds and hail
possible in the strongest storms (though coverage of stronger
storms is expected to be isolated at best). The most probable
flight restriction will be from IFR-LIFR VSBYs in heavy
downpours, through a few MVFR CIGs are possible. The best chance
is at ECG where a period with prevailing SHRA and VCTS has been
included in the TAF. While possible, confidence is lower at
ORF/PHF/SBY where VCSH has been included for now. Limited chance
for any convection to affect RIC. Any showers/storms taper off
between 21Z-00Z, dry and becoming mostly clear later tonight.


Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with dry weather tonight
through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Generally quiet marine conditions expected through Thursday before
an increase of S-SE winds on Thu night and Friday.

Early AM surface analysis shows a weak front dropping southward
across the waters with winds becoming N 10-15 kt in its wake. Most
of the convection associated with this front is now exiting the
waters off of Ocean City. An upper trough is noted to the west of
the local area and should swing through the region today.

Northerly flow will prevail through the morning hours before sea
breeze forcing turns the flow more onshore by early afternoon,
especially from the southern Ches Bay southward into NE NC. A few
showers or storms may form along this area of surface convergence,
resulting in locally enhanced winds/waves/seas. High pressure builds
into the region this evening into Wednesday with benign marine
conditions expected. The surface high moves offshore on Thursday
with flow becoming SE and increasing to ~15 kt by late Thursday
afternoon. Marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday evening into
Friday and again Friday night into Saturday as a cold front swings
through the waters. Waves and seas will average 1-2 ft through the
daylight hours of Thursday before increasing along with the winds
into Friday and Saturday. At this time, it appears seas will stay
below 5 ft through the forecast period.

Despite winds turning more onshore this afternoon across the
southern waters, the rip current risk will remain low through
Wednesday with surf heights of 1-2 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...RHR