784
FXUS61 KAKQ 110710
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough moves through the area today, bringing isolated
to scattered showers and storms, mainly near the coast. High pressure
settles across the region on Wednesday, then pushes off the coast
Thursday and Friday, bringing hot conditions to the local area by
the end of the week. A cold front pushes through Friday night, with
slightly cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1055 PM EDT Monday...

Key message:

- A few isolated to widely scattered showers are possible
  across northern portions of the area late this evening into
  early tonight.

Current surface analysis depicts a positively tilted upper
trough with a pair of embedded shortwaves centered over the
Appalachians into the mid-South slowly moving towards the mid-
Atlantic region. At the surface, a weak front/surface trough
is currently crossing over the region, with some isolated to
widely scattered showers over lower MD into N VA.

Showers will slowly push east across the region overnight, with
an isolated shower or two as far south as along the VA/NC
border into Hampton Roads by 4-6z. A 20-30% PoP for showers
continues into the overnight, tapering off overnight. Greatest
coverage over the northeastern corner of the area, closest to
the crossing upper shortwave. Overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s well inland, to low- mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered storms develop along the sea breeze Tuesday.
A few storms may be strong to severe across far southeast Virginia
and northeast North Carolina.

An upper level trough lingers through Tue before moving offshore.
Meanwhile, a surface trough is expected to be centered across NE NC
into far SE VA. A sea breeze is expected to develop by late Tue
morning into early Tue afternoon and gradually push inland through
the day. Behind it, dew points in the mid 60s (potentially higher)
are expected. These higher dew points combined with modest mid-upper
level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C in the 850-500 mb region should allow
for MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Meanwhile, 0-6km shear of 30-40 kt
exists (highest across NE NC) with most of the shear above 700 mb.
The combination of MLCAPE, shear, and modest lapse rates should
allow for some strong to locally severe storms to develop along the
sea breeze as early as around noon and continuing through the
afternoon. Small to marginally severe hail as well as strong to
severe downbursts are the main threats. As such, SPC has introduced
a marginal risk for severe storms across this area (extreme SE VA
and NE NC). Storms taper off by late afternoon into the evening as
the seabreeze pushes farther inland while the upper level trough
moves E. Isolated to scattered storms will also be possible across
the rest of the coastline and especially the Eastern Shore Tue
afternoon, however, shear and instability are lower in these areas
with general thunderstorms expected. Total QPF of ~0.25" (locally
1"+) is expected across extreme SE VA/NE NC with mainly <0.2"
elsewhere.

Highs Tue will be cooler in the upper 70s NW to the mid 80s SE.
High pressure moves in Wed with drier weather and highs in the
mid 80s. Lows in the mid 50s W to low-mid 60s E Tue night and
lower 60s W to mid-upper 60s E Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with highs
reaching the mid 90s by Friday.

- Mostly dry into early next week with only a slight chance for a
few evening showers and storms Friday and afternoon
showers and storms Saturday.

A ridge builds over the East Coast from mid-late week while surface
high pressure gradually moves offshore. This will allow for dry
conditions and a warming trend from mid-late week as highs
increase from the upper 80s to lower 90s Thu to the mid 90s on
Fri (lower 90s along the coast). While temps will be hot by Fri,
dew points in the 60s will act to mitigate the heat index from
being much warmer than the actual air temp. That being said, we
could be looking at heat indices in the mid-upper 90s on Fri
afternoon. A cold front moves through Fri night with a few
isolated showers or storms possible along it Fri evening across
NE portions of the FA. A few additional storms are possible
across the S Sat afternoon. The upper level ridge builds back in
to the East Coast this weekend into early next week with warm
temps continuing. Highs in the mid-upper 80s NE to the lower 90s
SW Sat, low-mid 80s E to the upper 80s to ~90F W Sun, and upper
80s to lower 90s Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Tuesday...

A cluster of showers/tstms is pushing off the coast of the
eastern shore, with gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. SBY
is now seeing improving conditions with rain ending and will
become VFR right around the start of the TAF period. Elsewhere,
just a few isolated light showers are passing across central and
southern VA but will likely miss all of the main terminals with
VFR conditions w/ SCT-BKN clouds at 5-10k ft. Clouds generally
diminish in coverage towards sunrise, with winds shifting to the
N/NE. Expect to see CU increase in coverage by mid- late
morning (especially along the coast), with scattered showers and
embedded tstms developing between 15-18Z, enhanced along a sea
breeze boundary across far SE VA/NE NC and the eastern shore.
Locally heavy downpours are likely with any storm, with brief
gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest storms (though
coverage of stronger storms is expected to be isolated). The
most probably flight restriction will be from IFR-LIFR VSBYs in
heavy downpours, through a few MVFR CIGs are possible. The best
chance is at ECG where a period with prevailing SHRA and VCTS
has been included in the TAF. While possible, confidence is
lower at ORF/PHF/SBY where VCSH has been included for now.
Limited chance for any convection to affect RIC. Any
showers/storms taper off between 21Z-00Z, dry and becoming
mostly clear later tonight.


Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with dry weather tonight
through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Generally quiet marine conditions expected through Thursday before
an increase of S-SE winds on Thu night and Friday.

Early AM surface analysis shows a weak front dropping southward
across the waters with winds becoming N 10-15 kt in its wake. Most
of the convection associated with this front is now exiting the
waters off of Ocean City. An upper trough is noted to the west of
the local area and should swing through the region today.

Northerly flow will prevail through the morning hours before sea
breeze forcing turns the flow more onshore by early afternoon,
especially from the southern Ches Bay southward into NE NC. A few
showers or storms may form along this area of surface convergence,
resulting in locally enhanced winds/waves/seas. High pressure builds
into the region this evening into Wednesday with benign marine
conditions expected. The surface high moves offshore on Thursday
with flow becoming SE and increasing to ~15 kt by late Thursday
afternoon. Marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday evening into
Friday and again Friday night into Saturday as a cold front swings
through the waters. Waves and seas will average 1-2 ft through the
daylight hours of Thursday before increasing along with the winds
into Friday and Saturday. At this time, it appears seas will stay
below 5 ft through the forecast period.

Despite winds turning more onshore this afternoon across the
southern waters, the rip current risk will remain low through
Wednesday with surf heights of 1-2 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RHR