288
FXUS61 KAKQ 100012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
812 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front crosses the area this afternoon into tonight,
bringing scattered showers and isolated storms. An upper level
trough lingers over the area through Tuesday with isolated to
scattered showers and storms possible near the coast Monday and
Tuesday. High pressure moves in from mid to late week with a warmup
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

- A weak cold front will bring scattered showers/storms to the area
this afternoon into this evening.

A weak cold front was located across MD extending WSW across N
central VA this afternoon. Aloft, an upper level low was located
across S Quebec. The cold front continues to drop S later this
afternoon. A few showers have already developed along the front
across far N portions of the FA with a gradual increase in coverage
expected later this afternoon into this evening as peak
afternoon instability is reached. Low CAPE (250-500 MLCAPE) may
make it difficult to get substantial coverage of precip, That
being said, the RAP suggests enough 3CAPE with surface vorticity
along the front for at least scattered convection later this
afternoon. Have PoPs gradually increasing as the front pushes SE
later this afternoon into this evening with CAMs showing the
potential for greatest coverage in NE NC this evening. Given ~60
kt of 0-6km shear, gusts to 25-40 mph are possible with any
stronger, low-topped convection. Showers taper off tonight
before another round of light showers potentially moves into NE
NC late tonight into Mon morning. QPF looks to be light with
mainly <0.10" of precip.

W winds remain gusty this afternoon with gusts 20-25 mph this
afternoon before becoming light overnight. Temps as of 300 PM ranged
from the mid 80s NW to the upper 80s to around 90F SE. Highs this
afternoon around 90 for much of the area with mid to upper 80s
across the Eastern Shore and far northwestern portions of the area.
Overnight lows in the mid-upper 50s NW to the upper 60s SE (due
to lingering cloud cover) are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler Monday and Tuesday.

- Isolated to scattered showers or storms mainly near the coast
Monday evening and Tuesday.

An upper level trough moves over the East Coast Mon. The trough
lingers through Tue before moving offshore. As such, CAMs show the
potential for a few light showers early Mon morning across NE NC
with additional low probabilities mainly along the coast and the far
NW Piedmont Mon afternoon (15-30% PoPs). Surface convergence may be
locally enhanced Mon evening as a weak surface low and cold front
moves through. As such, have increased PoPs to 30-44% across the
Eastern Shore Mon evening. A few isolated to scattered
showers/storms are also possible from late Tue morning into Tue
afternoon near/along the coast. Very little accumulation is expected
from both days with total additional QPF of <0.05". Aside from the
low rain chances, Mon and Tue are on track to be pleasantly cool
days for June with highs in the low-mid 80s Mon and upper 70s to
around 80F Tue. These temps combined with dew points in the low-mid
50s Mon and mid-upper 50s Tue under partly sunny skies should make
for pleasant outdoor conditions. Lows in the mid-upper 50s W and low-
mid 60s E Mon night and mid 50s W to low-mid 60s E Tue night are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with highs
reaching the mid 90s by Friday.

- Mostly dry Wednesday through Sunday with only a slight chance for
afternoon/evening showers and storms Friday and Saturday.

A ridge builds over the East Coast from mid-late week while surface
high pressure gradually moves offshore. This will allow for dry
conditions and a warming trend from mid-late week as highs
increase from the mid-upper 80s Wed to the lower 90s Thu and mid
90s on Fri. While temps will be hot by Fri, dew points in the
60s will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer
than the actual air temp. That being said, we could be looking
at heat indices in the mid-upper 90s (perhaps reaching 100F in
isolated locations) on Fri afternoon. A cold front moves through
Fri night into Sat with temps back in the upper 80s to lower
90s by next weekend. Additionally, a few isolated
showers/storms are possible Fri evening into early Fri night
(across N portions of the FA) as well as Sat afternoon (across
NE NC and SE VA). Lows look to be warmest Thu and Fri nights as
temps likely won`t drop below 70F in urban locations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 810 PM EDT Sunday...

A weak cold front is pushing south across the terminals early
this evening, with scattered showers and a wind shift to the NNW
post-frontal. Front has cleared all but ECG as of 00z, with
clearing expected over the next few hours. Could see a brief
shower at PHF/ORF and eventually at ECG between 01-03z. Winds
are expected to gradually diminish this evening, becoming NW
~5 kt this evening then becoming light and variable late tonight.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail through Monday afternoon.
Showers/storms are possible mainly across the eastern shore
(including SBY) Monday evening with additional showers/storms.
Additional isolated convection possible Tuesday afternoon along
the coast. VFR conditions should then prevail for the latter
half of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Southwest winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 knots through this
afternoon (higher in showers/storms), shifting to the NW this
evening.

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions this week, increasing southerly flow
late in the week ahead of the next front.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches Monday, potentially
trending toward moderate Tuesday across southern beaches.

A weak cold front is located just N of the forecast area this
afternoon. Ahead of this front, winds are westerly. Over the open
water (especially the eastern bay and offshore ocean waters), poor
mixing is leading to winds around 10 kt. Deep/effective mixing over
land is allowing wind gusts of ~20 kt to spill over into the tidal
rivers and near the land/water interface. A few locations right
along the Atlantic coast of Virginia Beach may even gust to 25 kt
occasionally. A look at area cameras shows any impact is quite
limited, so will continue to hold off on any marine products. Seas
are 1-3 ft (highest well offshore) and waves 1-2 ft. The front drops
S through the waters later this afternoon across the nrn bay and
coastal waters and through the remainder of the waters this evening.
Cannot rule out brief gusts to 35-40 kt with any showers/storms
along the front. Given the very brief expected duration, any
elevated winds associated w/ the front and/or convection will be
handled with an MWS or SMWs. Expect a lull in the winds behind the
front early tonight, before NW winds become more uniform around 10
kt with gusts to 15-20 kt later tonight. No headlines at this time
for this post-frontal event.

The wind direction becomes quite variable for Monday and sea
breezes may lead to onshore flow in the afternoon hours. Another
front drops S through the waters Mon night/Tue morning as sfc
low pressure lingers along the SE coast and high pressure slowly
builds in from the NW. This will provide a slightly better
chance for marginal SCA conditions. Wind probs for 18 kt
sustained are around 20% in the bay, though these tend to inch
up some once more hi-res guidance becomes available. NNE winds
10-15 kt linger into Tuesday, gradually diminishing overnight.
Otherwise, high pressure builds back in by midweek w/ sub- SCA
conditions continuing. Another weak low develops over the
Southeast/Gulf of Mexico from mid- late week with S winds
increasing to 15-20 kt late Thursday through Friday, potentially
resulting in SCAs late in the week.

Seas remain in the 2-3 ft range most of this week. Waves stay ~1 ft,
but briefly increase to 2 ft w/ the various northerly wind surges
tonight and Mon night. Seas increase to 2-4 ft (highest N) to end
the week. The rip risk looks mainly low, though may trend toward
moderate across srn beaches Tuesday w/ nearshore waves 2-3 ft and
NNE winds 10-20 mph.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...LKB/SW