Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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851 FXUS61 KAKQ 081855 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Drier conditions continue today. A weak cold front crosses Sunday, bringing a chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 140 PM EDT Saturday... Key message: - Dry and warm through the afternoon with a few more clouds expected tonight. Weak low pressure has moved offshore this afternoon with high pressure building into the region from the west. Flow aloft is generally zonal with ridging across the southern half of the country and an upper trough moving across Maine. Dry and pleasant conditions continue this afternoon with temps in the low/mid 80s with extremely (by June standards) agreeable dew points in the upper 40s and low 50s. Some cirrus clouds are noted on satellite imagery streaming into the SW portions of the CWA from the NW. Dry air aloft resulting in very few (if any) cumulus clouds this afternoon. Clouds do increase a bit tonight but it should be comfortable with low temps generally in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday evening, with widely scattered showers and storms. - Slightly cooler temps expected Monday and Tuesday with periods of isolated showers Monday night, potentially increasing over the eastern half of the area on Tuesday. Stacked low pressure over eastern Canada will allow a weak front to approach/cross the region Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Relatively meager moisture will result in isolated to scattered shower/storm coverage during the afternoon with somewhat greater moisture across the SE third of the area allowing for more numerous convection into the evening. High temps Sunday rise into the mid to upper 80s over much of the area with a few low 90s expected for the SE where clouds and showers will hold off longer. Overnight low temps range from the upper 50s NW to the mid and upper 60s SE. The front should move offshore by sunrise Monday. Removed the mention of isolated showers from the forecast given dry air aloft and lack of lift in the post-frontal airmass. Highs Monday in the upper 70s to low 80s. Some forcing for ascent moves in Monday night as a trough aloft digs to our west. Will limit PoPs to just a slight chance overnight with the eastern half of the area favored. 12z guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the development and evolution of surface low pressure across the region on Tuesday. The ECMWF remains the most bullish while the GFS and Canadian continue to show a mostly dry forecast for the region. Will maintain slight chance to chance PoPs across the eastern half of the area on Tuesday into the overnight. Regardless of the specifics, increased cloud cover will tend to limit daytime heating with highs in the 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Warming trend expected through the end of the week with highs reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday. - Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday with only a slight chance for afternoon/evening showers and storms. Upper ridging over the central Gulf Coast expands NE into the Mid- Atlantic region mid to late week with Bermuda high pressure taking shape as well, resulting in mostly dry conditions and building heat. Highs Wednesday will rise back into the mid and upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. A few degrees warmer on Thursday with potentially some isolated showers and storms moving into the Piedmont from the west. Highs near 90 degrees with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. The heat peaks on Friday with widespread low to mid 90s away from the coast. Remaining mostly in the 90s on Saturday with a slightly higher probability of afternoon showers and storms. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail for the 18z TAF period. Not much cloud cover affecting the terminals but some cirrus is noted moving into the SW portion of the area from the W/NW. Expect clouds to increase somewhat tonight with winds becoming light and variable. SW winds increase to ~10 kt by mid morning Sunday with some gusts possible through the afternoon hours. Another cold front will bring a slight chc of showers/tstms later Sunday. A slight chc of showers/tstms lingers in to Monday, but overall VFR conditions should prevail Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Southwest winds increase to 15-17 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots tonight. - South winds increase to 15-20 knots late Friday into Friday night with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. - Low rip current risk at all area beaches Sunday and Monday. High pressure remains centered across the Southeast into tonight. A weak surface trough approaches the local waters overnight. As such, winds shift from variable ~5-7 kt this afternoon to S/SE 10-15 kt this evening, becoming SW 15-17 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (highest across the coastal waters). Marginal SCA conditions are possible overnight, however, conditions appear marginal (wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds were 50-60% for the bay but only for 3 hours). Given marginal wind probs and SW winds over warm waters leading to potentially less effective mixing, will hold off on SCAs at this time. SW winds diminish to 10-15 kt by Sun morning, becoming W with a few gusts to 20 kt across the rivers Sun afternoon, then becoming N/NNW 10-15 kt Sun night behind a cold front. High pressure builds back in from the W with a weak coastal low moving along the coast late Mon through Tue night. However, winds appear to remain below SCA criteria. Another weak low develops over the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico from mid-late week with S winds increasing to 15-20 kt Fri into Fri night. SCAs are possible for this surge. Waves and seas were ~1 ft and ~2 ft respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft respectively overnight, subsiding to 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft by Sun afternoon. Additionally, there is a low rip current risk Sun and Mon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...RMM