497
FXUS61 KAKQ 120659
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves in from mid to late week with a warmup
expected. A cold front moves through Friday evening into Friday
night with a chance for a few showers and storms. Otherwise, a
dry and hot pattern continues into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 815 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key message:

- Partial clearing and mild overnight. Some patchy fog possible
  along the coast toward sunrise.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level low centered over
New England embedded within an upper level trough that has
pushed offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast this evening. At the
surface, weak sfc trough is now offshore, with broad 1016+mb
sfc high pressure over the Ohio/TN River Valleys slowly building
east across the Appalachians. Have maintained some lingering
shower chances over NE NC through ~10pm, with weak seabreeze
boundary and remnant outflows from earlier evening convection
still pushing west as of this writing. Otherwise, gradual
clearing into the late night hours. Some mid to high clouds push
in from the west late tonight. Patchy fog is possible along the
coast and into NE NC toward sunrise Wednesday. Otherwise,
pleasantly mild overnight with early morning lows in the mid 50s
inland and low- mid 60s close to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected Wednesday into Thursday with
  mainly dry weather.

An upper level trough moves offshore Wed with high pressure centered
over the area. Near normal highs are expected with temps in the mid
80s for most (lower 80s along the coast). Wed will be mostly dry,
however, the 12z CAMs show the potential for a few light sprinkles
to develop in the late afternoon and early evening across N central
VA in response to a shortwave moving through. Given high pressure
overhead, the most likely solution is that the shortwave causes
partly to mostly cloudy skies. Nevertheless, have added a very
slight chance (15% PoP) for a stray light shower/sprinkle along and
N of I-64 in case it overperforms. High pressure moves offshore Thu
with temps warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s under mostly
sunny skies. Lows in the 60s are expected both Wed and Thu nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot Friday with highs in the mid 90s.

- This weekend is trending cooler

- Hot and dry weather continues all of next week.

An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds E. The
overall trend is for an upper trough across eastern Canada to be a
little stronger, and as such, the core of the upper ridge stays well
off to our W/SW over the Plains states. At the surface, high
pressure will remain centered along the East Coast, gradually
sliding offshore. The forecast for Fri remains on track with deep
mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising to 18-19C. As such, highs Fri
looks to average in the mid 90s well inland across central VA/metro
RIC, with upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. However, given
the continental origin of this airmass, dew points continue to be
fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s, which will act to mitigate
the heat index from being much warmer than the actual air temp. Near
the coast, dew points will be a little higher, but given a rather
weak pressure gradient, winds likely back to the SE and keep actual
air temperatures held in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories
look unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid- upper
90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri afternoon.

A cold front drops S across the local area Fri evening into Fri
night with at least isolated showers/storms possible across N/NE
portions of the FA. For now, have maintained 25-30% PoPs across the
Northern Neck and Eastern Shore with 15-20% PoPs farther S/SW. The
upper level trough moves offshore Sat with high pressure moving into
interior New England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic coast Sun.
As such, this weekend is trending cooler with highs in the low-mid
80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland both Sat and Sun.
Humidity will also remain low all weekend with dew points in the mid-
upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast.

A large upper level ridge builds across the East Coast next week
with a prolonged period of hot and dry weather expected. Highs rise
into the low-mid 90s Mon (mid 80s along the coast) and mid 90s on
Tue. WPC has maintained a moderate risk (40% chance) for excessive
heat from June 19-21 across N portions of the FA with a slight risk
(20% chance) elsewhere. An extended period of dry weather also
appears increasingly likely.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 00z TAF period
should persist through Wednesday night. Light/variable winds
become E-SE tomorrow late morning and afternoon <10kt. Guidance
continues to show potential for a brief period of MVFR/IFR VIS
between 8-11z (4-7 AM EDT) Wednesday. A combination of mid and
high level clouds move in from W to E on Wed.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with mainly dry weather
Wed night through Fri. A cold front crosses the area Fri evening
into Fri night with a low chance for late day/evening showers
or storms possible (best chance NE of KRIC to KSBY).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions likely persist through late week before a
  cold front crosses the waters late Friday into Saturday.

Broad 1016mb high pressure is noted over PA/NY, extending southward
into the Mid-Atlantic states. Aloft, the upper low/trough over New
England will continue to drift offshore today. Winds early this
morning are generally from the east at 5-10 kt. Waves in the Ches
Bay are around 1 foot with seas 1-2 ft.

High pressure will gradually move offshore today. Weak synoptic
flow will allow sea breeze circulations to augment periods of
SE/onshore flow this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon,
generally SE 10-15 kt. Winds diminish somewhat to 5-10 kt
during the evening and overnight hours. The pressure gradient
tightens on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front but winds
are expected to stay in the 10-15 kt range in the pre-frontal
southerly flow. The front moves across the waters late Friday
night into Saturday morning with winds becoming N and increasing
to 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt. A period of SCA headlines will
likely accompany the frontal passage into the first half of
Saturday for the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck
Sound. Confidence in seeing sustained SCA conditions offshore is
lower given the higher wind thresholds for the ocean waters.
Waves in the bay will average 1-2 ft through the period with 2-3
ft possible during periods of stronger flow this
afternoon/evening and again Thursday and late Friday. Seas will
average 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft likely during the stronger surge
late Friday into Saturday. Offshore wind direction will tend to
limit seas but a period of 4-5 ft is possible during this
timeframe (especially N and out near 20 nm). Quiet marine
conditions return and are likely to persist well into next week
with strong high pressure aloft lingering over the region.

Low rip current risk continues for all beaches today and Thursday.
By Friday, a tightening pressure gradient will help to increase near-
shore wave height and longer period swells for the northern beaches
where a moderate rip risk my be required.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...MAM/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...LKB/RMM
AVIATION...MAM/RMM
MARINE...RHR