673
FXUS61 KALY 230558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
158 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region today and bring slightly
cooler and less humid conditions along with a few showers and
thunderstorms mainly concentrated across areas south and east of
Albany. Mainly dry weather is expected on Friday and Saturday
with temperatures remaining a bit above normal. Chances for
rainfall increase later in the weekend through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
.UPDATE...As of 130 AM EDT, an area of thunderstorms is pushing
eastward across the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks and is
associated with a prefrontal trough over the region. These
storms have generally been producing wind gusts up to 20 mph per
ASOS and NYS Mesonet obs along with some thunder and lightning.
Some pea to half inch hail could accompany some of the taller
cores within the line. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows this
activity entering a less stable environment, so we do not expect
much if any strengthening with this activity. In fact, some
slow weakening is expected over the next few hours as it enters
the Lake George Saratoga region.

A cold front is beginning to enter the western portions of New
York where a more widespread area of showers are occurring.
These storms have also been in a weakening stage as the gust
front outruns the convection. Nonetheless, some additional
showers and isolated rumbles of thunder will be possible with
this activity closer to daybreak but most of this activity could
also fizzle out before it arrives. Still, will maintain slight
to chance pops through the remainder of the overnight. Any fog
tonight will likely be fairly localized as skies trend mostly
cloudy.

Lows across much of the region will only fall into the 60s. Some
upper 50s will be possible across the higher peaks of the
Adirondacks, southern Greens and eastern Catskills.

The cold front will begin to cross the region on Thursday with
the front positioned to the south and east of the Capital Region
by the late morning hours. Ahead of this front, some weak
instability (up to 750 J/kg) and 30 kt of 0-6km shear will be
present into the afternoon hours. CAMs suggest the best
precipitation chances will be during the morning and early
afternoon hours as a batch of rain and embedded thunder crosses
the region accompanied by passing upper-level energy. Forcing
and instability begins to wane during the afternoon as the front
crosses. How unstable the environment gets in the morning will
determine whether any storms could become strong. Latest trends
suggest the potential for severe storms across far southeastern
areas is low, but will continue to monitor trends. Elsewhere,
mostly dry weather is expected as slightly cooler and less humid
air moves in behind the front with any morning clouds gradually
giving way to more sunshine in the afternoon. Highs will be
mainly in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
425 PM Update:

Cannot rule out a few isolated showers or thunderstorms early in
the evening Thursday across the mid-Hudson Valley to
northwestern Connecticut, but otherwise dry conditions are
expected Thursday night with partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies. Lows are expected to be in the 50s to near 60.

Friday will be a mainly sunny day as high pressure will be in
control. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, but with
lower dewpoints (mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s), it will feel
a lot more comfortable outside. The dry weather continues Friday
night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
425 PM Update:

An upper level shortwave will cross the region from southwest to
northeast on Saturday as a surface warm front also approaches. Some
showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the
mid 70s to mid 80s.

The associated cold front looks to cross the region on Sunday
as weak upper ridging builds overhead. This should result in a
drier day, but a few showers could still occur along the front.
Highs Sunday will be in the lower 80s along the Hudson Valley
and the 70s to around 80 elsewhere.

A complex upper level pattern looks to set up for early next week
with multiple pieces of upper-level energy rotating around one
another. Eventually, an upper level trough or upper level low looks
to form over the region. Another surface low pressure system
approaches from the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes and brings additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, possibly more widespread than
over the weekend. The extra clouds and greater coverage of
precipitation may hold temperatures into the 60s and 70s both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...A warm and relatively humid air mass for
late May will remain in place across the region through tonight.
A cold front will then pass through from west to east during
the morning. A small cluster of SHRA/TSRA moving northeast from
the southern Adirondacks and may hold together long enough to
reach KGFL between 07z-08z. Will mention MVFR vsby with SHRA,
but less confidence there will be TSRA. Will continue to monitor
for possible brief TSRA. Widely scattered activity may get
close to KALB, so will mention VCSH there. Once the showers and
associated mid level clouds move through, there is a few hour
window for some clearing before additional clouds from the cold
front arrive towards daybreak. Fog is possible, especially at
KGFL if any measurable rainfall occurs prior to the clearing.
However, a slight breeze could offset surface moistening. Will
mention a TEMPO for IFR conditions there between 08z-10z to
account for this potential. Large temperature/dewpoint
differences and/or a slight breeze should preclude fog formation
elsewhere.

After 12z today through this morning, scattered SHRA/TSRA with
mainly MVFR conditions are possible around KPOU associated with
the cold front passage. Some of this activity could get close to
KPSF, but should generally remain to the south. VFR conditions
will prevail after the cold front passage with gradual clearing
through the rest of the afternoon.

Winds will initially be south-southwest around 5 kt or less,
then shift to the west and increase to 5-10 kt after the cold
front passage this morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...JPV