394
FXUS61 KALY 020754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
354 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of isolated showers north and east of Albany
tonight due to a passing disturbance, primarily dry conditions are
expected throughout the remainder of the work week. In fact,
precipitation chances don`t increase again until Saturday afternoon
into Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Dry weather will then return
for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.As of 3:50 AM EDT...Potent upper disturbance is located in
southwestern Ontario, with the associated surface low downstream
just northeast of Lake Ontario. We have seen a few showers and
thunderstorms out ahead of this system so far tonight, and will
continue to mention slight chance to chance PoPs for the
southern ADKs, upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT through
early this morning with the surface low expected to track north
of our CWA. Will also continue to mention slight chances for
some thunder based on current radar trends and BUFKIT forecast
soundings that show some pockets of weak elevated instability
north of I-90thanks to a remnant EML plume.

Further south, we are seeing low stratus expanding north and
westwards from the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England
with low-level southeast flow leading to moisture becoming
trapped beneath a thermal inversion. These low clouds should
continue expanding north and westwards through around daybreak
before mixing out later this morning with daytime heating. Temperatures
range from mid 40s to around 60 at this time. Areas that remain
cloud free will likely see temperatures drop a few more degrees,
while cloudy areas can expect near steady temperatures through
sunrise. Some patchy fog is possible for the more sheltered
areas that remain clear through the next few hours.

This morning, the cold front associated with the surface low
tracking to our north will track through the region from
northwest to southeast. This front is currently located back
across western NY, but should make it to our western CWA border
by 12z and to the Capital District by around 15z, exiting into
western New England late this morning. Behind this front, we
should see a deeply mixed boundary layer today. Combined with
partly to mostly sunny skies, this should help temperatures rise
well into the 70s for many valley locations and into the upper
60s even for the high terrain. With most areas still pre-green-
up, we went a few to several degrees above NBM/MOS guidance for
daytime highs today. Most of today should be dry with the
surface low tracking off to our north/east, especially after
the cold front departs this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern Great Lakes
region. High pressure in eastern Canada downstream of the upper
ridge will build into our region from the north. The large-scale
subsidence will keep our region dry tonight. There may be a few
clouds around and winds won`t go completely calm tonight. While
conditions are not ideal for radiative cooling, with a dry
airmass in place we should still see overnight lows mainly in
the 40s, although a couple of the normally colder areas in the
ADKs or southern VT may see temperatures briefly dip into the
upper 30s.

Friday, the upper ridge axis shifts over western NY with the
surface high sliding off to our northeast. We will be caught
between an unusually warm airmass under the ridge to our west
and a cooler maritime airmass to our east due to low-level
east/southeast flow around the periphery of the surface high.
Temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s in the Mohawk
and upper Hudson Valleys, while the Mid Hudson Valley and
western New England will likely see highs in the 60s with some
50s in the higher elevations. The upper ridge axis moves
overhead Friday night, with the surface high remaining to our
east. Lows will be a few degrees warmer as there will be a few
more clouds around compared to the previous night. We should
remain dry through Friday night with the upper ridge nearby.

Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday starts off dry, but an
occluded front will approach from the west later in the day,
bringing with it a chance for some showers. The best chance for
showers Saturday afternoon is for areas west of I-87. Western
New England will see highs similar to Friday. Further west, it
will likely be a few degrees cooler than Friday with more clouds
around. Chances for showers increase Saturday night across the
region, although there is still some uncertainty regarding
exactly how quickly the front progresses eastwards. QPF
generally looks to remain on the light side through 12z Sunday.
Lows will be mainly in the 40s to 50s with cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday looks to be a rather cool and damp day, as a surface front
gradually moves eastward across the region. At this time it appears
showers will be prevalent through the day, as the front encounters
ridging along the New England coast which will slow its eastward
progress. With plenty of clouds/showers around and a cool SE flow,
highs will mainly be in the 50s. Showers will taper off from west to
east Sun night, as the surface front and a short wave trough aloft
move through.

Surface high pressure is then expected to build in from the
north/west on Mon, providing dry conditions and likely abundant
sunshine. The air mass will be moderating fairly quickly, so with NW
flow and good mixing highs should reach the lower/mid 70s in most
lower elevations. Tranquil/seasonable conditions in store for Mon
night with high pressure overhead. The high will gradually drift
east towards the New England coast on Tue, with continued dry
weather and warming aloft. NAEFS indicating 850 mb temperature
anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV, resulting in highs around 10
degrees above normal.

The next chance of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms, arrives
Tue night into Wed, as a warm front approaches from the south/west
and eventually moves into our area. Temperatures will be highly
dependent on the timing of clouds/showers and also the northward
progress/extent of the warm front. At this time temperatures are
expected to remain above normal, but with lower confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...Low pressure will track across northern
New England into this morning. An associated cold front will
push southeastward across the TAF sites by late this morning.
Until then, tricky forecast with regards to low stratus clouds
at KALB/KPOU/KPSF and possible fog at KGFL. Satellite imagery
shows stratus clouds very close to KPOU/KPSF at this time and
slowly expanding north/west. So will mention TEMPO for IFR cigs
until around 08z at these sites, then prevailing IFR cigs
through 12z. Lower confidence in low clouds making it to KALB,
so will just include a TEMPO for a few hours from 08z-10z. Mid
level clouds clearing at KGFL for the next few hours. If winds
go calm for any duration, fog development is likely with very
low dewpoint depression. So will mention a TEMPO for IFR
conditions associated with fog there from around 06z-09z prior
to mid level clouds increasing again after that time.

Low level clouds will scour out once the cold front pushes
through between around 15z-16z, with VFR conditions returning.
VFR should then prevail through the rest of the TAF period
ending 06z Friday.

Winds will be mainly southerly around 4-12 kt with some gusts
near 20 kt at KALB through the early morning hours. Winds will
shift to the northwest behind the cold front by late this
morning, with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts around
20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today, RH values look to drop to 30 to 40% across portions of
the Mid Hudson Valley and western CT. Northwesterly wind gusts
will be around 15 kt in the Mid Hudson Valley and 15-20 kt in
western CT. Further north from the Mohawk Valley through the
Capital District and into the Berkshires, northwest winds could
gust up to around 25 kt, although RH values in these areas
should remain above 40%. With the lack of overlap between the
strongest winds and lowest RH values combined with the fact that
most of these areas saw a quarter to a half inch of rain over
the past 48 hours, we did not consider special weather
statements for elevated fire weather concerns today.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Main