Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cloudy and rather mild start to the day, chances for
showers increase from west to east this morning as a slow
moving cold front approaches. More widespread rainfall develops
tonight into Thursday, especially south and east of the Capital
District, as a coastal low tracks up the East Coast. While we
dry out by Friday, breezy conditions linger through Saturday as
the coastal low deepens in the Canadian Maritime.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Zone of showers nearly stationary but inching east with better
coverage spreading to western New England through the afternoon.
The clouds and rain will hold temperatures in the 40s to near
50 the rest of the afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
The main cold front continues to slowly track across central NY
tonight with the pre-frontal trough and corridor of enhanced
moisture and low/mid-level forcing slowly shifting towards
western New England. Scattered showers remain possible mainly
along and east of the Hudson River tonight but more organized
areas of rain will likely develop after Midnight as a jet
streak intensifies over west/central NY. Increased upper level
divergence in its right entrance combined with forcing from
additional shortwaves approaching within the fast southwest flow
aloft will likely result in periods of steadier rain ahead of
the approaching cold front. Areas in the Taconics and western
New England will most likely observe the steadiest rainfall as
this region should still be within the corridor of enhanced
moisture/PWATs ahead of the boundary. An additional 0.15 - 0.30"
of rain is expected to accumulate from periods of rain overnight
here with a rather tight QPF gradient ensuing heading west towards
the Hudson River. Little if any rain expected north/west of
Albany. Otherwise, cloudy skies and showers will give us another
mild night with overnight lows ranging from the mid-30 to
mid-40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Our cold front continues shifting eastward through eastern NY
towards western New England on Thursday which will push the
moisture axis and corridor of enhanced PWATs near 1-1.5"
further east into New England. Meanwhile, a potent southern
stream shortwave in the Southeast U.S amplifies and even becomes
negatively tilted, resulting in enhanced height falls and
forcing for ascent ahead it coinciding with the rich moisture
axis streaming into New England. Guidance remains in good
agreement that this will result in a coastal low that rapidly
undergoes cyclogenesis Thursday into Thursday night as it
tracks up the East Coast. The aforementioned cold front tracking
across our area, however, should help steer the coastal low
mainly to our east. It will be a close call but probabilistic
and ensemble guidance still suggests that our western New
England zones, especially Litchfield County, may not escape
unscathed with rain from the coastal low brushing these areas
Thursday into Thursday night. While an inverted trough should
focus the heavy rainfall axis mainly into New England, periods
of rain are possible for western New England during this period
making for a rather wet Thursday. Winds shifting to the north
and west behind the cold front will support dry air advection
across much of NY during the day Thursday which will act to
enhance the QPF gradient from the Hudson River into western New
England. Thus, we placed likely POPs in western New England but
drop off to chance in the Capital District and mid-Hudson
Valley with slight chance in the Mohawk Valley. The western
Adirondacks will likely enjoy a mainly Thursday. An additional
0.10-0.25" in western New England during the day Thursday will
give 24 hour rainfall amounts ranging 0.50 - 0.75". While the
Housatonic River basin is elevated from the recent period of wet
weather, the latest river forecast still keep the river below
flood stage through Saturday.

The incoming coastal low tracks into New England Thursday night
as it rapidly deepens with some guidance suggesting it is nearly
a bomb cyclone. The aforementioned cold front should steer it
mainly east of our forecast zone but the western fringe could
scrape our western New England areas. Even still, we do not
expect any significant impacts as the main moisture plume/heavy
rain axis is focused in eastern New England. Cold air wrapping
in on the back side of the cyclone may result in some higher
elevations mixing or changing to snow briefly before
precipitation ends Thursday night in western New England but any
snow accumulation looks minimal and reserved to the higher
terrain.

Otherwise, breezy northwest winds behind the coastal low will
support cold and dry air advection and clearing skies
overnight, mainly for areas west of the Hudson River. Overnight
lows drop into the mid to upper 20s in the higher terrain and
hill towns with low 30s in the Hudson Valley.

We stay breezy on Friday thanks to a tightening sfc pressure
gradient over the Northeast as our coastal low continues to
deepen in the Canadian Maritimes (guidance suggesting is nears
~975hPa). Wind gusts up to 25 - 30kts combined with cooler
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s and a much drier air mass
(PWATs dropping to 0.25") will make it feel chillier on Friday
compared to previous days. Luckily, we should enjoy at least
partly sunny skies.

Breezy conditions persist into Friday night with clearing skies
thanks to increased subsidence aloft behind our exiting coastal
low. Overnight lows drop again into the 20s to near freezing.
While the air mass remains quite dry with low dew points, the
breezy winds will prevent ideal radiational cooling so did not
stray from the blended guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The beginning of the long term period will see high pressure ridging
building in aloft from the west as an upper-level close low tracks
into Nova Scotia. Dry conditions are therefore expected Saturday
with high temperatures primarily in the mid 40s to low 50s, though
upper 30s to low 40s are expected in the mountains with mid 50s
possible in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Breezy, northwest winds can also
be expected Saturday with a tighter pressure gradient across the
area with the building high and the departing low. Saturday night
could feature some light, scattered, rain/snow showers due to the
passage of an eastward-propagating low pressure system to our south,
but little accumulations would result. Lows Saturday night will
range from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Any showers that develop Saturday night look to end by early Sunday
morning, yielding another mostly dry day as high pressure ridging
amplifies across the region. Dry conditions will then persist into
the beginning of the work week. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will
be primarily in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s with pockets of upper
30s to low 40s at higher terrain. Lows Sunday night will be similar
to Saturday night with upper 20s to low 30s.

An unsettled pattern then begins to take shape beginning Monday
night when a low pressure system and parent upper-level trough begin
to track into the eastern Great Lakes from the Midwest. While there
is some uncertainty pertaining to the exact timing and track of this
system, model guidance generally agrees that a batch of widespread
precipitation will result across eastern New York and western New
England likely beginning early Tuesday morning through Wednesday.
With precipitation onset expected Monday night with temperatures
falling into the upper 20s to low/mid 30s, precipitation would start
as snow for higher terrain areas, and rain or a rain/snow mix
elsewhere before transitioning to plain rain during the day Tuesday.
Additional snow will be possible for elevations in excess of 1000 ft
Tuesday night where temperatures will remain below freezing and
primarily rain elsewhere where temperatures will only fall to the
mid 30s. However, rain should resume once again Wednesday with
temperatures reaching the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front very slowly building east and steadier showers will
affect the TAF sites through this afternoon but intervals of
showers still possible through the night, with coverage
decreasing to chances between about 03Z to 12Z. Conditions
begin as VFR but rain will increase low level moisture and MVFR
ceilings and visibilities will become more dominant by 22Z-24Z,
and continue through the rest of the night. Ceilings may become
IFR in any intervals of showers tonight and may become
predominant later tonight.

Winds will be light and variable much of the night. becoming
northwest at less than 6 Kt after midnight.

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...NAS/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...NAS


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