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000
FXUS61 KALY 191448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1048 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring rain showers to the region this afternoon
into this evening. Behind the front, breezy and cool conditions
are expected for Saturday, with a partly sunny afternoon and
some isolated showers. It will remain mostly dry Sunday into
Monday with a mostly clear sky, but temperatures will continue
to be a little below average for late April.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1045 AM EDT...minor updates to sensible weather for today
as not much change to previous forecast. Rain showers currently
over western NY with a couple of lightning strikes noted in the
past hour. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies continue with a few
small breaks this morning before the cold front to the west gets
closer.

Previous...
The combination of surface high pressure over Atlantic Canada
and a weak storm system located off the mid- Atlantic coast
continues to allow for the low level flow out of the east to
southeast. This onshore flow is keeping plenty of low level
moisture in place, where is trapped beneath an inversion around
900 hpa. IR satellite imagery and surface observations continue
to show fairly widespread stratus clouds over the region. While
there had been some light showers and drizzle earlier in the
overnight, this has ended, as forcing is fairly weak over the
area, thanks to the weak coastal system continuing to move
further away.

Through the morning hours, will expect skies to remain cloudy
with the flow becoming southerly across the area. There could
be an opportunity for a few breaks of sun by the late morning
or early afternoon hours, mainly for far southern areas or parts
of western New England, although most areas will continue to
remain fairly overcast. Temps will be a little warmer than
yesterday thanks to the southerly flow and slightly milder temps
aloft, so highs should reach the mid to upper 50s in most
areas.

Another frontal boundary will be approaching from the west for
late in the day. CAMs suggest that a broken line of light rain
showers will be moving across the area from west to east for the
late afternoon or early evening hours, with the highest coverage
of showers probably for western and northern areas. Any precip
looks fairly light and brief.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As the surface cold front slowly moves across the area, some
additional showers are expected for this evening into tonight.
There are some differences in the models regarding just steady
any precip will be, so will generally have POPs in the chance
range through the overnight hours, with POPs starting to wind
down west to east by the late night hours. Overnight temps will
be falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s for most areas (some
mid 30s in the highest terrain). Some clearing may finally occur
by the late night hours for far northwestern areas.

On Saturday, sky cover will gradually improve through the
morning hours, as the frontal boundary continues to push away.
However, skies won`t be clearing out completely, as the upper
level trough overhead will still be allowing for some clouds,
especially by afternoon hours, as the cooling temps aloft and
cyclonic flow promote the development of cu/stratocu. While
most areas will be dry on Saturday, a few pop-up showers or
sprinkles can`t be ruled out by Saturday afternoon, mainly
northern and high terrain areas, although the best chance will
likely be west of the forecast area. Any precip on Saturday
looks very brief. Temps will be a little below normal thanks to
the upper level cold pool in place, with temps only in the 50s
for most areas. With the decent mixing, winds will be gusty and
breezy by Saturday afternoon, with some westerly winds gusting
up to 30 mph.  It will remain a little breezy into Saturday
night with some lingering clouds. Temps will fall into the 30s,
although it should be dry with no precip across the area.

Dry weather is expected to continue for Sunday into Sunday
night. Upper level trough will continue to be located over the
Northeastern US, although the core of the cold pool will remain
north of the area over Quebec. Another frontal boundary will be
passing across the area, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air,
but this moisture-starved front won`t be producing any precip
for our area. As a result, skies will be mostly clear for Sunday
into Sunday night, although it will on the cooler side. Temps on
Sunday will be in the 50s (40s for the high terrain) with upper
20s to mid 30s on Sunday night. It will be breezy once again on
Sunday, especially during the time of peak heating, with some
gusts in the afternoon and early evening up to about 30 mph or
so.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak, dry cold front will exit early on Monday as high pressure
builds in for the rest of the day. This will lead to a mostly sunny
and breezy start to the week with highs in the 40s and 50s, slightly
below normal. A mostly clear and cool night is expected Monday night
with lows in the 20s and 30s.

The high will push off to the east on Tuesday as southerly return
flow advects milder air into the region. Highs on Tuesday will
rebound into the 50s and 60s. Clouds will increase and thicken later
in the day as an upper-level trough and low pressure system approach
from the west. There is some timing and track differences with our
next system but shower chances look to increase spanning Tuesday
night and Wednesday and we maintained likely pops for those time
periods. If the cold front crosses during the time of peak heating
on Wednesday, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Enough
cold air may advance behind the cold front that some snowflakes
could mix in across higher elevations before precipitation tapers
off later Wednesday or Wednesday night. An upper-level disturbance
may linger over the region into Thursday; otherwise, drier weather
would return with high pressure building back in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z/Sat...High pressure will be located off the New England
coast through the afternoon hours. Thereafter, a cold front will
cross the region from west to east tonight.

Dry weather is expected through much of the day Friday. Generally
low end VFR cigs are expected with some periods of high end MVFR
cigs possible. Ceilings will lower to the MVFR range at all sites
tonight along with some scattered rain showers, which could bring
mixed MVFR/VFR vsbys. Cigs may lower to IFR at some sites,
especially KGFL/KPSF, but kept MVFR cigs at this time. After the
passage of the cold front, cigs may quickly lift back to VFR.

Wind will become south to southeasterly at 10-15 kt today with some
gusts over 20 kt. Wind will remain south to southeasterly at 5 to 10
kt this evening, gradually shifting to the west toward the end of
the TAF period behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND/Frugis
NEAR TERM...SND/Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun