139
FXUS61 KALY 110511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
111 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain warm and humid for Friday into the upcoming
weekend, with some additional thunderstorms possible each
afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
The severe thunderstorm risk for tonight has ended for eastern
New York and western New England. Patchy fog will begin
developing in the next few hours across locations that recently
saw precipitation, otherwise a calmer and humid night is in
store.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday
  once again, with isolated thunderstorms capable of producing
  damaging winds once again.


Discussion:
Lows falling into the 60s overnight. Some patchy fog may
develop, especially for places that see rainfall.

On Friday, the surface boundary will still be close to the area,
but the upper level disturbance will have moved away. 0-6 km
bulk shear is even lower on Friday, with values generally under
25 kts. A few afternoon thunderstorms may develop, especially
for southern areas, but coverage looks less compared to
Thursday. With high dewpoints once again and slow storm
movement, some downpours could lead to an isolated flood threat
once again. A rogue damaging wind gusts or two is possible as
well, but the limited shear and meager mid level lapse rates
should help prevent widespread storms from getting strong. High
temps will be well into the 80s in valley areas, although heat
index values look to stay just below advisory criteria.

More afternoon storms are possible once again on Saturday with
the surface boundary still stalled nearby or just southwest of
the area. Coverage looks isolated to scattered once again, with
the most activity probably south or southwest of the Capital
Region. The threat for severe storms looks fairly low due to
limited shear, but there should be decent instability thanks to
the warm and humid air mass in place. Highs look to approach 90
in valley areas and heat index values may reach the lower 90s.
They may come close to advisory criteria in a few spots.
Otherwise, it will remain partly cloudy and muggy with lows
falling into the 60s on Saturday night. Any precip will fall
apart after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Heat Advisory may be needed for some of the valley areas
  Sunday and Wednesday for dangerous heat index values reaching
  or exceeding the mid 90s.

Discussion:

It will remain fairly warm and humid through much of the long
term period. Valley highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on
Sunday, with heat index values in the lower to possibly middle
90s. With an upper level disturbance approaching from the
northwest, some thunderstorms are possible once again on Sunday,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. ML/AI based
convective hazard forecasts suggests there could be severe
threat for Sunday with the approaching disturbance and abundant
instability in place, so will need to monitor closely.

Some more showers or t-storms can`t be ruled out with the
passing cold front on Monday. Temps look slightly cooler for
Monday compared to the weekend. However, warmer temps will
quickly return for Tuesday into Wednesday with building heights
and warming temps aloft. With the building ridging, there looks
to be less convection on Tuesday and Wednesday compared to
earlier in the week as well. Heat Index values may come close or
exceed advisory criteria, especially by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...Conditions range from VFR at ALB/POU to MVFR
at PSF/GFL as of 1:05 AM EDT. With rain last evening at GFL, periods
of fog with IFR or lower vsbys are expected through shortly after
sunrise. At ALB, mainly VFR conditions expected through the rest of
tonight, although some patchy stratus with MVFR cigs is possible for
a couple hours around sunrise. At POU, patchy stratus looks more
likely, with MVFR/fuel alternate cigs expected. Cigs look to be near
1000 ft for a few hours around sunrise, so have included a tempo for
some IFR cigs here. At PSF, low stratus is already in place and
expected to remain in place through early this morning. MVFR cigs at
PSF are expected to lower to IFR within a coupe hours, then improve
back to low-end MVFR shortly after sunrise.

This morning, any lingering low stratus dissipates by early to mid-
morning, with FEW to SCT mid-level clouds around through the rest of
the day. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
are expected. Best chance for a storm looks to be at POU, where a
prob30 group was included. With lower confidence at ALB/PSF, only
included VCSH at this time, and will not mention anything for GFL as
chances for a shower/storm are lowest there. Storms dissipate
shortly after sunset with continued VFR conditions through 06z
Saturday. Winds will be mainly from the south/southeast through the
entire TAF period at 3-5 kt tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt today
then dropping back to around 5 kt or less after sunset this
evening.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Webb
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Webb
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Main