804
FXUS64 KAMA 131909
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
209 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Latest 18-19Z observational trends shows a sfc boundary in eastern
New Mexico in-conjunction with a perturbation in the dirty H500
ridge centered over El Paso is resulting in some showers and
thunderstorms beginning to develop in far NE New Mexico. Based
off the H500 wind pattern, showers and storms that form will
generally move east and east-southeast. The atmosphere through
this evening, if storms can break the cap, will deal with
abundance of DCAPE with most areas through 00Z will have DCAPE
values range from 1900-2300 J/kg. More organized 0-6 km shear is
present in the NE Panhandles, so if storms can develop and or re-
develop along a propagating outflow/cold pool, severe criteria
wind and hail will still be possible. Storms that can tap into the
better DCAPE, wind gusts 70+ mph cannot be completely ruled out.
Thunderstorm chances should diminish past 03-04Z as the cap
rebuilds.

Going into the day tomorrow, the main H500 trough will be move
east past the Sangre de Cristos by 00Z Sunday. As the main area of
lift moves closer to the NW Panhandles, the closer proximity of
the main perturbation, coupled with diurnal heating should result
in increased chances of strong to severe storms. Colder core of
perturbation aloft should support more of a large hail threat
along with damaging wind gusts potential. This area of lift
further to the NW should suffice to break the cap, but we will
watch trends closely. Could see a leftover shower or storm
tomorrow night as the main trough axis moves through the
Panhandles, but severe chances should be lower than the day time
hours. High temperatures throughout the short term period will
range from the mid 90s to 100-103 degree range.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

An upper level short wave trough will traverse the central plains on
Saturday.  This disturbance along with plenty of low level moisture,
a surface trough, and instability should help to touch off
thunderstorms across the Panhandles Saturday afternoon and evening.

The flow aloft will generally be southwest across the Panhandles
with large scale troughing across the western U.S. and ridging
across the east.

We will leave Sunday through Tuesday afternoon tentatively dry for
now, as the cap will be stronger, but it could be broken any one of
these days to allow for thunderstorm development.

By the time we get to Tuesday night and Wednesday, the upper trough
will be closer to the Panhandles and the heights may be low enough
that the cap will be easier to overcome.  Therefore, the chances of
thunderstorms will come back into the forecast.

Highs will generally be in the 90`s Saturday through next Wednesday
which will be slightly above average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. Winds will
be out of the south at 10-15 kts with sct mid clouds. The only
exception could be later this evening for KGUY with VCTS
conditions around 00Z. Conditions could result in erratic winds
at KGUY TAF site with ts at site.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  95  66  93 /  10  10  40  20
Beaver OK                  67  98  68  94 /  30  10  30  20
Boise City OK              63  93  61  94 /  20  40  50  20
Borger TX                  71 100  69  97 /  20  10  40  20
Boys Ranch TX              69  97  65  95 /  20  20  60  20
Canyon TX                  67  94  65  92 /  10  10  50  20
Clarendon TX               66  93  67  91 /   0   0  20  20
Dalhart TX                 64  94  61  94 /  20  30  60  20
Guymon OK                  65  95  64  94 /  20  20  50  20
Hereford TX                68  95  65  94 /  10  10  50  20
Lipscomb TX                68  98  69  95 /  20   0  20  20
Pampa TX                   68  95  67  93 /  10   0  30  20
Shamrock TX                67  96  68  93 /   0   0  10  10
Wellington TX              68  96  69  94 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...29