575
FXUS64 KAMA 180830
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
330 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A very similar scenario to yesterday looks plausible today,
including breezy winds throughout the day. One forecast element
that should actually be more favorable today is increased flow
aloft. Southwest 500mb winds should bring another minor
disturbance to the area today, as a sfc trough sets up over the
western Panhandles up into western KS, potentially providing lift
for storm development. Lift should be highest in KS where a
stalling boundary will help with storm development, some of which
could spread into the Oklahoma Panhandle this evening. Further
south in the Texas Panhandle, capping will play a major role again
today, lending to another low confidence forecast. If any
localized areas along the sfc trough can get enhanced convergence
to break the cap, isolated to scattered storms are possible. This
potential appears to be highest along and south of I-40, but could
extend further north if capping breaks. Should storms develop,
2500-3500 MLCAPE, 30 kt shear, and 50s-60s dew points will be in
place for strong to severe wind and hail for any activity in the
CWA. The stalled boundary approaching the KS- OK border may
provide an opportunity for a landspout or two as well, but high
storm bases would keep the overall tornado threat unlikely.
Increasing PWATs suggest heavy rainfall would also be worth
monitoring. Overnight, some of the KS/OK Panhandle activity might
slide south and east towards the northeastern TX Panhandle, but
this potential really hinges on what all takes place this evening.

For Wednesday, although guidance has converged on the more
southerly track of the potential tropical cyclone in the Gulf, we
should still see an increase in moisture pulled to the area.
Heavy cloud cover will drape over the region as a result, bringing
reprieve from the heat in the 90s, with cooler temps in the 80s
forecast along with more rain/storm chances. As mentioned, the
system is trending south and west towards the Rio Grande Valley,
which might take better rain chances with it. Will go ahead and
leave NBM POPs 0f 30-50% alone for now, but would not be surprised
to see a decrease in rain chances based on the likely presence of
stronger ridging aloft.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Starting the long term forecast period, we continue to watch the
remnants of the tropical low pressure system off the Texas Gulf
Coast moving up to the Rio Grande river. The NW direction is being
steered by the broad H500 anti-cyclonic feature from the mid
Atlantic back to the lower Mississippi River Valley. UL subsidence
from the influence of this H500 high pressure system may limit
rain potential. However, the moisture transport from the tropical
system may still reach the southern and western TX Panhandle, were
the highest rain chances (30-40%) will exist. PWAT values
approaching near record values for skew-t climatology will be
possible with values above 1.5" by Friday afternoon based off the
latest 18/00Z model and numerical data.

As the center of the H500 high pressure shifts west into NM by
the coming weekend, mid level NW flow will aid in diurnal
convection developing off of dirty ridge rollers that move across
the CO/NM high terrain and give us additional showers and
thunderstorm chances each day through early next week. After high
temps below average on Thursday and Friday, but still rather
muggy, temperatures this coming weekend through early next week
will return to above average as we go into late June.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Aside from overnight LLWS, VFR conditions are expected at all
sites throughout the period. A 50 kt LLJ is set up over much of
the Panhandles tonight, with breezy 20-30 kt winds at the sfc,
allowing for some LLWS to exist. This will gradually go away this
morning as the LLJ subsides. Winds stay breezy out of the south
tomorrow, and a few thunderstorms will be possible again mainly
near KAMA and KGUY. Confidence is low, but thunderstorm mentions
may be needed in later TAF issuances.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                92  69  84  64 /  20  20  30  40
Beaver OK                  94  67  86  63 /  10  40  50  30
Boise City OK              98  62  79  61 /  10  30  50  50
Borger TX                  97  71  90  67 /  10  20  40  30
Boys Ranch TX              97  70  88  64 /  10  20  40  50
Canyon TX                  91  68  84  63 /  20  20  20  40
Clarendon TX               89  68  82  64 /  20  20  20  30
Dalhart TX                 99  64  84  60 /  10  30  50  50
Guymon OK                  98  65  83  62 /  10  40  50  40
Hereford TX                94  69  86  64 /  20  20  20  40
Lipscomb TX                93  69  86  65 /  10  30  40  20
Pampa TX                   91  69  85  64 /  10  20  30  30
Shamrock TX                91  69  86  65 /  20  20  20  20
Wellington TX              91  70  86  66 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38