170
FXUS64 KAMA 150508
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Thunderstorms have begun this afternoon and this activity is
expected to linger into the evening. Current mesoanalysis shows
instability between 1,000-2,000 J/kg from the surface, while
500-1,000 J/kg is present in the mixed layer. Inverted V profiles
this afternoon suggest that strong winds could spawn from these
developing storms. And if one creates a strong enough updraft the
result could be damaging winds from thunderstorm outflow.

Hot temperatures also continue this afternoon, with a handful of
sites already meeting or exceeding 100 degrees. Cloud coverage was
expected to limit the amount of areas that would see 100, but the
overall coverage was not expansive enough for the slightly cooler
outcome to occur. Tomorrow, highs will range in the 90`s once
again but there are concerns that the models are not handling the
late season heat as well as previously thought. That said, more
locations could see temperatures over 100 degrees and we will
still monitor the potential for the Palo Duro Canyon to see 105
tomorrow. For now, no heat related products are being issued.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Long range models agree on the general upper level pattern change
being introduced this week. A large scale upper trough is
advancing from the Pacific Northwest and should exit off of the
Rockies in the next few days. The remaining ridge of high pressure
will get displaced to the east. With the return of upper level
forcing and favorable moisture profiles, daily precipitation
chances remain in the CWA through the entire duration of the
extended period. The main concerns heading forward still consist
of the days with relative maximums for QPF and conversely the
relative minimums. The timing of each wave we receive this week
will dictate which days the highest coverage of POPs and QPF will
occur. Mid to long range guidance continues to diverge when it
comes to these prospects, as it is still difficult to discern the
small scale features necessary to effectively forecast the
precipitation expected to generate from the oncoming system. NBM
POPs were left alone for now since they are still reasonable for
the coming days. High temperatures this week will see some small,
but steady degradation throughout the week. Upper 80`s and 90`s
look to be the current range for the CWA; but by next weekend,
long range guidance suggest that we could exit the 90`s and
transition to 70`s and 80`s for highs instead.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. There is
a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon primarily
at KDHT but also possible at KAMA. However, confidence is too low
at this time to include in the TAFs.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                95  65  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
Beaver OK                  96  64  93  65 /  10  10  20  10
Boise City OK              93  60  89  61 /  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                  99  67  97  67 /  10  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              96  64  94  64 /  10  20  10  20
Canyon TX                  94  63  92  64 /  10  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               96  64  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 92  59  89  59 /  10  20  10  20
Guymon OK                  95  62  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Hereford TX                95  63  93  64 /  10  10  10  20
Lipscomb TX                96  65  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   95  64  92  65 /  10  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                96  64  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
Wellington TX              97  66  95  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...52