Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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963 FXUS64 KAMA 150456 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1156 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Thunderstorms and showers continue across the central and western Panhandles late this evening. Storm intensity has decreased over the last hour or two and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled early. Attention now turns to the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall to continue into the overnight hours. Models continue to indicate that showers and storms may train over the southwestern Texas Panhandle overnight which could lead to isolated flash flooding should rain rates be in the 1 to 2 inches per hour range. Storms are forming across east central New Mexico as the better upper level dynamics start to move across and these storms will move into the southwest overnight. Increased PoPs across the southwest through the overnight hours with this forecast update based on hi-res guidance and observational trends. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Our active synoptic pattern continues as a trough moves across the central CONUS and the high pressure center at the H500 level transitions eastward. More perturbations will exit lee side of the Rocky Mountains and move in from the northwest generating additional chances for thunderstorms heading into the weekend. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range in the 90`s; and with excellent moisture retention, humidity should generally be on the higher side through the weekend. Thunderstorm activity will also continue, especially for our northern zones, through the short term period. In the afternoon each day, sufficient instability and shear will be present for storms to become severe. Damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and some hail will continue to be the primary hazards. Places that have already received much rainfall over these past few days may begin or continue to see flooding risks. Today, showers and thunderstorms are diminishing from our morning convection. A new shortwave trough will move through from the northwest and clusters of storms will enter the CWA later this evening. Cold pools and early outflow from our previous convection have a chance to hinder our severe potential. However, showers should still occur given our favorable Theta-E profiles positioned in the western CWA. After sunset, thunderstorm endeavors should should taper off but showers can persist overnight and into the morning hours. Saturday, a new southwest oriented trough will impact the combined Panhandles but coverage may be more limited unless today`s setup under performs. And with this more traditional spring time regime progged from our mesoscale features, thunderstorm timing will be a bit earlier in the afternoon and evening. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Mostly dry conditions are expected to start the long term forecast period. Latest 14/12Z model and numerical data shows a pronounced sinusoidal synoptic pattern across the entire CONUS. Focusing on the southern High Plains, H500 SW flow will help with LL subsidence and keep the Panhandles mostly dry. By mid week next week, as the main H500 anti-cyclonic feature over the eastern 2/3 CONUS expands back to the west, perturbations in the mid levels should help to generate showers and thunderstorms. These perturbations should allow very good low to mid level moisture transport from the Gulf to reach the Panhandles. Better rain chances return from mid week next week to the end of the forecast period. Some storms could be strong, and with repeated rounds of low level moisture with PWAT values in the 99th percentile for June standards, we will have to watch the potential for flooding during this time period. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing at KAMA and KGUY and should cease by around 09z and 06z respectively. Showers may linger in the morning hours, but confidence in the impacts to the terminals is low at this time. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon, but details about the extent of coverage and timing are uncertain at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 97 65 91 66 / 10 80 30 30 Beaver OK 97 68 92 67 / 0 30 30 30 Boise City OK 85 60 92 63 / 40 90 10 10 Borger TX 97 69 95 68 / 10 70 30 30 Boys Ranch TX 95 65 92 66 / 20 90 20 20 Canyon TX 93 65 90 64 / 10 80 30 30 Clarendon TX 93 68 90 66 / 0 40 20 20 Dalhart TX 86 61 90 62 / 30 90 20 20 Guymon OK 91 64 92 65 / 40 80 20 20 Hereford TX 96 65 92 66 / 10 80 30 20 Lipscomb TX 97 69 93 69 / 0 20 30 30 Pampa TX 95 68 89 66 / 0 50 30 30 Shamrock TX 96 69 93 69 / 0 10 10 20 Wellington TX 96 70 94 71 / 0 10 10 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...52