381
FXUS61 KBGM 060620
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
220 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Steadier rain and embedded thunderstorms moves through tonight
into Thursday. Strong to severe storms possible for Thursday
mid-morning through the afternoon. An upper level low then
brings an unsettled, cooler and showery weather pattern for
Friday and the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Only minor changes with the evening updates, mainly for the
coverage of showers. Most of the incoming showers are on the
lighter side and will only slide east through the overnight.
Some heavier showers should move across NE PA heading into the
overnight as well.

315 PM Update...

An upper-level system will be pushing a warm front through our
area in the next few hours, bringing scattered rain showers and
storms through the evening. As this system approaches the area a
little more overnight, another round of much steadier, heavier
rainfall will push through overnight Wednesday and into
Thursday. High precipitable values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will
help to bring in more intense rainfall, but the progressive
nature of the front bringing the rainfall will help push things
along and minimize chances for flash flooding. Though, there
still is a chance for flash flooding where multiple batches of
heavier rainfall occur over an area.

For Thursday, rainfall will continue through the early morning
hours. There may be a slight break in rain, or at least the
intensity will decrease, before a line of strong to severe
storms may develop and move through Thursday mid-morning
through the afternoon. CAPE values jump to 500-1000 j/kg, and
even some up to 1500 for northern portions of Central NY.
If severe storms were to develop, the main threat will likely be
strong to damaging winds. Things should be winding down towards
the evening hours, with some scattered showers lingering around
through Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
306 PM Update...

A complex blocking pattern across Canada and the North Atlantic will
result in broad troughing across the northeastern CONUS through
early next week. Embedded in that pattern, a closed mid-level low
will move slowly from Georgian Bay to the Ottawa Valley between
Friday morning and Saturday night. Several weaker shortwave troughs
will swing through our area like spokes on a wheel through the
period, modulating periods of showers and thunderstorms, with cooler
air aloft bringing below normal temperatures.

Timing of a shortwave trough on Friday looks to be fairly well-timed
with the diurnal cycle for fairly widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Bulk shear values are
impressive, 50-60 knots, but instability looks to be weak, with the
typically hot-running NAM suggesting max CAPE values of 300-400
J/Kg.

Precip looks to die off quickly after dark as the shortwave trough
pushes east of the area and daytime heating abates.

Additional showers look to favor mainly areas north of the Twin
Tiers on Saturday as another shortwave trough rolls through early in
the day. Another more significant round of showers is possible
Saturday night as a stronger shortwave trough drops through the
area. Though uncertainty remains high, a narrow band of heavier
precipitation is possible with this disturbance.

High temps look to hang around the upper-60s to lower-70s Friday and
Saturday, roughly 5 degrees below seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
306 PM Update...

As the slow-moving upper low finally moves into the Saint Lawrence
Valley Sunday, a final shortwave trough looks to dig down into the
lower Great Lakes. This will bring widespread rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the region, along with continued
cooler than normal temperatures.

Cyclonic NW flow will persist into Monday, with additional mostly
diurnally-driven showers expected. A weak shortwave trough pushing
through may favor the late morning and early afternoon hours for
precip, with drier conditions moving in by evening. Temperatures
look to remain cooler than normal, with highs in the upper-60s to
lower-70s again.

Finally, a drier spell looks to set up beginning Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A messy night as scattered rain showers move through the region,
bringing varying restrictions to our terminals.

IFR ceilings are expected at AVP/BGM/ELM later tonight as temps
drop to near the dewpoint. AVP should see a wind shift in the
next couple of hours that should bring upslope flow out of the
valley and up to the airport, lowering ceilings. Same goes for
BGM with southerly upslope flow bringing low clouds before
sunrise. ELM has been more tricky as guidance has been somewhat
inconsistent. Current MVFR vis that wasn`t forecast lead to
increased confidence in a period of IFR ceilings before sunrise.

During the late morning into late afternoon, a round of showers
and storms are expected to cross the CWA from east to west. The
highest confidence for TSRA is at BGM/SYR/RME so a PROB30 group
was added at these terminals. Confidence was not high enough to
include IFR in these TAFs, but a period of heavy rain could drop
vsby down to IFR for a period in the afternoon. Conditions at
all terminals should rise to VFR by mid to late afternoon as a
cold front pushes through the area.


Outlook...

Thursday Evening... A few passing showers could drop conditions
to MVFR/Fuel Alt for a brief period. Otherwise, VFR expected.


Thursday night through Sunday...

Occasional showers with brief restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MWG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...JTC