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000
FXUS61 KBGM 290617
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
117 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will continue through sunrise. The
middle of the week will remain mostly dry with temperatures
trending warmer by Thursday. The next weather system will bring
mainly rain to the area Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

110 AM Update...

The orientation of the lake effect snow band is now quickly
shifting north and eastward as the flow backs more westerly. The
lake effect snow band will be over Onondaga and Madison counties
through about 3 AM, the shift into Oneida county until about
daybreak...before lifting even further north and out of the
area. Additional snow amounts will be up to about 3 inches in
the remaining Lake Effect Snow Warning counties.

950 PM Update...

Lake effect snow showers continue over the area, but the heavy
bands that were present earlier have weakened and become more
cellular. This is more than likely due to the loss of the
upstream connection to the Georgian Bay in Lake Huron as when
this happens, the only source of moisture is from Lake Ontario
and the fetch across the water with the NW flow is not long
enough to generate strong, organized snow bands. After midnight
we may see a pick up in activity as the winds shift more WSW as
moisture from Lake Michigan and the southern end of Lake Huron
is advected across Lake Ontario. The snow bands are expected to
slowly shift to the north as the overnight progresses and should
be out of the area by mid-morning.

PoPs were adjusted to match the latest radar trends. QPF and
snowfall amounts were adjusted as well, slightly reducing
amounts over Onondaga county with the snow bands weakening and
increasing amounts slightly over Oneida county to account for
more snow than modeled over this area. Another 1-4 inches is
expected over northern Oneida county, with 1-3in over Onondaga
and Madison and 1-2 inches over southern Cayuga and southern
Oneida.


650 PM Update...

Heavy lake effect snow bands continue to stream across Onondaga,
Oneida and Madison counties. We have gotten a few reports of 5-6
inches in these bands so the forecast is holding pretty well.
Looking at radar and satellite trends, it looks like the
upstream connection to the Georgian Bay has weakened. The strong
and steady band that formed over Syracuse a couple hours ago has
become more cellular with periods of heavy and light snow mixed
in. Guidance has not handled the snow bands over Oneida county
well, with almost all of the models showing northern and
central Oneida county snow free. This is not the case as a snow
band remain over this area, continuing snow across Rome and
Utica. Because of this, PoPs and snow amounts were increased by
an inch or two over this area from the afternoon package.

230 PM Update

The lake effect snow has turned more cellular and into
disorganized bands this afternoon, as an upper short wave
pushes through. Behind the exiting shortwave, flow will turn
northwesterly and a NW to SE oriented lake effect band should
get organized across central NY and then lift northward later
tonight. For now, have left headlines as is, but if this band
doesn`t get organized or progresses northward faster than
expected, then the winter storm headlines will need to be
downgraded. Have lowered snowfall amounts slightly with this
update as well, but not enough to drop those warnings quite yet.

It will be cold and blustery overnight, with lows falling into
the upper teens and lower 20s with minimum wind chills in the
single digits.

For tomorrow, the lake effect will some to an end as a warm
front pushes in and flow turns southwesterly. The warm front
lifts through the area out ahead of a low pressure system
passing well to the north across Canada, however the best
isentropic lift will be north of our forecast area, so kept pops
at slight to low chance north of the NYS thruway. It remains
cold tomorrow, with highs only in the upper 20s to mid-30s and
overnight lows in the low 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM Update...

After a few lingering lake effect snow showers over Oneida
County Wednesday night, Thursday will be a pretty quiet day
across the area with weak ridging and westerly flow becoming
more west-southwest. This will lead to a warmer afternoon with
temperatures returning to the low-to-mid 40s under a partly to
mostly sunny sky. Lows Thursday night will range anywhere from
the upper 20s and low 30s in the Catskills to the upper 30s
around the Finger Lakes. Clouds will be build back in Thursday
night in advance of a moisture starved cold front approaching
from the northwest and a surface low and quick-moving shortwave
coming up from the southwest. Looking at 850mb temperatures,
this looks to be mostly a rain event Friday into Friday
evening. Rainfall totals Friday into Friday night are expected
to range between 0.25-0.50 of an inch. Highs Friday are
expected to be in upper 30s and low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM Update...

Saturday into next week is shaping up to be an unsettled period
for the area. Another quick-moving shortwave is expected to
move up from the southwest Saturday bringing a low chance of
showers (30% or less) to the area to start the weekend. However,
there is some uncertainty in the track of this disturbance
whether it moves right overhead or passes by primarily to the
north and west. A developing surface low over the Midwest Sunday
looks to move over the Great Lakes later in the day and into
Sunday night and tap into moisture from a low forming over the
Southeast that treks northeastward. This would result in another
round of moistly rain, but given uncertainty on the track and
strength of these disturbances, chance PoPs (up to 50%), are in
at this time for the end of the weekend.

The train of shortwave troughs looks to continue early next
week keeping the chance of showers around during the day and
rain/snow showers at night as temperatures fall. Highs Saturday
through early next week are expected to be mainly in the 40s
then and falling into the 30s at night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

115 AM Update

SYR and RME will see the biggest impacts from snowfall early
this morning. The lake effect snow band is now reorganizing and
it will be moving quickly through SYR until around
08-09z...bringing some short lived IFR conditions back to the
terminal (moderate to high confidence). The snow will impact RME
from about 08z until 11 or 12z this morning, also bringing IFR
or lower VSBYs here for a few hours.

ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP are expected to remain VFR through the period,
with just intermittent mid level  clouds over the region.

Winds will be westerly, 5 to 15 kts, shifting southwest and
southerly later today between 8-15 kts.

Outlook...

Tonight through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday... mainly VFR; restrictions possible late in the day or
at night with an approaching system and associated rain.

Saturday and Sunday...Possible restrictions due to rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ009-018-036.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC/MJM