Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 091933
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
333 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will be passing to the south this
afternoon with increasing clouds this morning with rain moving
in early in the afternoon. Tomorrow is looking drier with cooler
temperatures expected once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Low pressure will move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic states
tonight. North of the low pressure track enough lift and
moisture will ride an associated warm frontal boundary to
produce widespread rain. Modeled precipitation has been fairly
consistent at one half to an inch of liquid. Dynamical cooling
should allow for a fairly quick drop in temperatures into the
30`s and 40`s.

In the higher elevations of Steuben county the cooling still
looks sufficient enough for the rain to mix with and change to
snow for a time late this afternoon into the early evening. Some
light accumulations of an inch or two are possible at the
highest elevations in Steuben county. Accumulations should
mainly be confined to grassy surfaces but some slick spots can
be ruled out with the heaviest bursts of snow.

The main low pressure center will depart but a general mid-level
trough will still be over the region allowing clouds to linger
Monday and Monday night. Despite the clouds Model soundings
indicate fairly steady northwest winds as well around 10 mph
with boundary layer temperatures indicating highs well into the
50`s. While temperatures Monday night fall back into the 30`s,
clouds and wind should prevent frost from forming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
155 pm update...
Pattern through the middle of the week will be defined by a
cold cyclonic flow that will keep daytime temperatures in the
50s and allow overnight lows Tuesday night to dip into the 30s.

During the day Tuesday a sharp upper level short wave within
the push of cold Canadian air mass will sweep from Ontario
through the Northeast and act to steepen lapse rates, increase
instability slightly and generate some scattered rain showers.
Temperatures will be warmest during the late morning and slowly
cool through the day. Most of the precipitation will fall in the
form of rain during the afternoon, but the wave is expected to
drag eastward slowly into the evening, which will likely allow
boundary layer temperatures enough time to cool and mix in some
snow during the overnight hours before the precip ends. At this
time it looks like the qpf will be fairly light and the air
mass will be drying with time as well, so any snow that does mix
in will likely not accumulate. A dusting above 1700 feet is not
impossible.

One thing to recognize Tuesday night will be the cold
temperatures. Cold air moving in from the northeast will have
some winds with it as well. Overnight temperatures in the 30s
across much of the region may prove detrimental to sensitive
plants. So, even though frost is not expected due to the cloud
cover, winds and potential for rain/snow...be mindful of
protecting plants.

Ridging will start to build back in from the west by Wednesday,
but it may take some time into the afternoon to clear the
clouds out. However, once they do mix out, temperatures will
jump into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds are expected
to persist through the day with some gusts up to 20 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
155 pm update...
The latter part of the week will be defined by a weak ridge of
high pressure that will slowly track across the northeastern US
and basically act to gradually warm the region and keep
conditions relatively dry. The greatest chances for
precipitation appear to occur during the afternoon/evening hours
of Friday and Saturday due to daytime destabilization.

The first area of concern in the long term is the potential for
widespread frost Wed night/Thu morning. Upper ridge will start off
over the wrn Great Lakes Wed night and shift to the east on
Thursday. As this occurs, winds will subside and skies will clear
off and remain mostly clear through the night. Strong raditional
cooling will counteract the weak warm air advection and allow
temperatures to fall into the 30s for much of the area.

A more significant warming period will start off Thursday with
afternoon highs stepping into the lower 60s...and eventually
into the upper 60s close to 70 by Saturday. The ridge slowly
breaks down Friday and Saturday, which will allow incoming
embedded short waves to drive into the relatively warm and humid
air mass and trigger some afternoon showers and storms. At this
time nothing appears to be organized, so any storms that do
form will be weak.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Ceilings and visibilities should gradually lower to IFR late
this afternoon and evening with rain. Rain should end overnight
but ceilings will be much slower to come up late tonight into
the morning hours Monday. However, VFR conditions are expected
by 16Z Monday at all TAF sites. Winds generally northwest 10
knots or less.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR with scattered rain
showers possible Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry northwest flow with quiet
weather conditions, perhaps a shower Friday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MWG


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