501
FXUS61 KBGM 171751
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
151 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
An Air Quality Alert has been issued for all of Central NY for
the rest of today until midnight tonight. Smoke coverage was
updated based on HRRR guidance. SPC has upgraded part of the
region to an Enhanced Risk.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Smoke returns late today and lingers through most of the daytime
hours Saturday.

2) A low pressure system will bring thunderstorms to the region on
Saturday, some of which may become strong to severe with gusty winds
and heavy rainfall.

3) Additional showers and storms will be possible around the midweek
period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

As expected, the smoke has cleared out of the region and the
greatest concentration is to the southwest. As the flow becomes more
west to southwesterly late today, the smoke will drift back north.
The HRRR guidance shows high concentrations of near-surface smoke
returning to the region tonight and Saturday morning. Despite some
showers early in the day, smoke may linger well into the afternoon
hours before a cold front sweeps through the region. Air Quality
Alerts remain active for the entire region. It will be up to state
partners if these will be extended for Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The start of the weekend will be active as an upper-level wave moves
through the Great Lakes region along with a surface low pressure
system. A warm front will lift north during the morning hours and
support the first round of showers and non-severe storms. A cold
front will then move through late in the afternoon into the evening
with the second round of showers and thunderstorms. This second
round is when strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.
Models generally limit the CAPE values to 1000-1500 J/kg though
favor slightly higher values along the south shore of Lake Ontario.
The 0-6km bulk shear will be around 40 kts for most of the region.
Lapse rates are a bit uncertain, especially the mid-level lapse
rates as they are weak in most guidance. While warmer air will be
advected in once in the warm sector, there is uncertainty if
lingering smoke, morning showers and storms, and/or sky cover
will limit heating and instability. Based on the expected
environment, damaging gusts will be the main hazard. High low-
level shear may also support isolated spin ups. SPC upgraded
much of the area to an Enhanced Risk in their Convective
Outlook, continuing the highlight the wind threat.

In addition to potentially become unstable, the environment
will be moist with this system. PWATs up to 2 inches and large
warm cloud depths will support heavy rainfall. While this system
should quickly move through with strong flow present, Corfidi
vectors do indicate the potential for some training of
thunderstorms. Antecedent conditions have been dry though given
the lack of any significant rainfall recently. WPC maintains
there Marginal ERO over the region, though any potential flash
flooding would be over urban and poor drainage areas. especially
those that may see multiple rounds of showers/storms tomorrow.
Rainfall amounts will generally be less than an inch, though
locally could be higher.

An upper-level trough will dig over the Great Lakes region to start
the weekend. A surface low associated with this feature will deepen
as it moves into the region. This low will bring a warm front
through early with the potential for some scattered showers and
storms by early afternoon. Then a cold front will then follow,
though timing looks to favor late in the day and into the overnight
hours. Models are showing limited instability throughout much of the
day, though it does increase throughout the afternoon with values as
high as 1500 J/kg. The 0-6km bulk shear will be at least 40 kts.
Lapse rates do look weak, especially at the mid-levels. Given this,
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is low but present.
The main hazard will be isolated storms with strong gusts mixing
down. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for most of the region.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

Following this system, there will be a couple of cool and quite days
before the next low pressure system moves in. High pressure builds
into the region on Sunday and will remain in control through Monday
night. Another low pressure system will move across Canada but will
bring additional frontal systems through the region. Showers will
move into the region as early as Tuesday morning, though there
remains uncertainty with the timing. These systems will be slightly
slower to move through as rain will continue through Wednesday
before a dry slot extends northward. Wraparound moisture from the
departing low may keep spotty showers around Thursday before high
pressure has a chance to build back in. Late in the week has the
potential to stay dry though some guidance want to bring in a weak
system from the northwest. Temperatures throughout next week will be
fairly pleasant, hovering around climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A current mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR visby is expected to last
for a hour or two before a weak front will pushes through and
kicks most of the smoke out of CNY and NEPA. VFR conditions are
expected for the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook:

Friday night into early Saturday...Wildfire smoke may lift back
north into the area with associated visibility restrictions;
otherwise mainly VFR.

The rest of Saturday into Sunday morning...Scattered showers
and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC