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000
FXUS61 KBGM 031954
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
254 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Another surge of polar air will cause scattered showers to form
over NY State tonight and early Thursday. Dry, cold weather will
persist through Thursday evening, before lake effect snow
showers move into Northern NY early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A deep upper level cyclone will continue to spin over Eastern
Canada through the next 36 hours. A surface storm system will
move across Ontario Province tonight and drag another cold front
across NY and PA.

The cold front will set off scattered snow showers tonight
before the activity transitions to light lake effect snow
showers. Expect a dusting to several-tenths of an inch of snow
accumulation overnight, mainly over our NY counties.

The persistent polar flow will continue Thursday, causing
light lake effect snow showers over Upstate NY. Little
accumulation is expected. Temperatures will peak between 25 and
30 degrees, about 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal.

West-northwest flow across Lake Ontario will produce additional
light snow activity over Upstate NY Thursday night. Expect a
dusting to a half-inch of snow accumulation by morning.
Temperatures will fall to between 10 and 15 degrees. A few
readings in the single digits will occur over Northern Oneida
County and along the Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...
Persistent cold northwest flow with a stacked low situated over the
Canadian Maritimes will keep in chances for some lake effect
flurries and snow showers into Friday, but with a fairly dry
airmass, snow totals during the day Friday should be fairly light.
Will not rule out totals upwards of an inch, though, especially
across the higher terrain southeast of Syracuse. Otherwise, expect a
fairly breezy day with highs only in the 20s, perhaps lower 30s in
the Wyoming valley.

Friday night, another shortwave drops in with deeper moisture
allowing for additional light accumulations across much of central
NY. Again, the highest totals (possibly up to 1 to 2 inches) would
be expected southeast of Lake Ontario, where we may see some lake
enhancement. Otherwise, expect Friday night lows in the teens across
much of the area, and in the single digits towards northern Oneida
county. A potential for some scattered lake effect snow showers
lingers the rest of Saturday. Saturday stays chilly, with highs in
the 20s and overnight lows once again in the teens and single
digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM Update...
The remainder of the forecast remains largely on track, but minor
adjustments have been made to temperatures for early next week.
Sunday and Monday may stay a few degrees cooler, as the latest
guidance is slower to bring in the warmer airmass that should help
to bring in above average temperatures by the middle of next
week.

300 AM Update...
Though there is still some disagreement on how long the process
takes, models have the same general idea that a moderation
trend will finally get going early next week as the chilly
stacked low opens up into a departing trough.

Chilly cyclonic flow is likely to linger into Sunday, though
moisture will also become rather shallow to cause lake effect snow
showers/flurries to finally wind down. We are still looking at
rather cool highs of upper 20s to mid 30s Sunday, followed by
radiational cooling of the very dry air mass for lows of upper
single digits to teens Sunday night.

Models allow the closed low to open into an amplified trough, which
lifts well northeast of our region to unlock the pattern. There is
some uncertainty for how long it takes initially westerly flow to
back southwesterly, but the end result of milder temperatures is
similar either way. The pattern also appears rather quiet for at
least a few days, before some potential of embedded waves towards
the middle of next week. Though 50 degrees is not totally out of the
question for a couple spots Monday, it appears more probable Tuesday-
Wednesday for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A frontal system across Upstate NY will bring scattered MVFR
ceilings to the region, affecting KRME and KSYR at times through
early evening. Widespread MVFR or fuel alternate ceilings will
spread across our terminals overnight and persist through
Thursday morning.

Light snow showers will cause MVFR visibility restrictions over
our northern terminals overnight.

Flight conditions will slowly improve Thursday afternoon.


Outlook...


Thursday afternoon through midday Friday...Mainly VFR expected.

Friday evening through Sunday...Scattered lake effect snow
showers may bring occasional restrictions to the NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC/MDP
AVIATION...DJP