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000
FXUS61 KBGM 311853
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
253 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep conditions quiet and cool through Monday
night. However, several fast moving, weak disturbances will create
chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.
High pressure builds back in Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Radar mosaic imagery continues to show mainly isolated showers
and sprinkles from northern NY southwest into central NY and the
central southern tier of NY. Otherwise a scattered to broken
cumulus field has formed over all of central NY and northeast PA
as per the visible satellite imagery. The upper and middle
level water vapor channels from GOES-16 show one small short
wave feature pressing southeast toward Lake Ontario. With the
peak heating of the day, cold air aloft we are seeing a few of
the cumulus clouds put down some sprinkles. This wave passing
with the loss of the daytime heating will cause both the clouds
and sprinkles to diminish quickly after sunset.

Then another short wave presently north of the upper Lakes will
drop southeast and potentially trigger a few more clouds and
sprinkles later this evening into the overnight so have more
slight chance POPs and call it sprinkles in the weather grids
tonight. This next wave and associated clouds should preclude
the threat of widespread frost from the Catskills north to
Oneida County. I could see a few normally colder locations
seeing a little frost but it would be overkill to issue an
advisory in our professional opinion.

Then for Monday, the main upper level trough moves east but it will
continue to be cold aloft with chilly 850 mb temperatures running
around +2 to +4C from the Catskills to Oneida County. With
northwest upslope flow we continue slight chance POPs for our
eastern counties from the Catskills to Oneida County for the
afternoon. Again we will call it sprinkles. Rest of forecast
area sees some cumulus but less than today and warmer
temperatures into the 60s and low 70s vs today`s unseasonably
cold 50s and low 60s.

For Monday night strong warm advection begins and clouds will
increase as will chances of rains showers later Monday night to
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The chance for
showers will increase through the day on Tuesday as a shortwave
drops SE out of Ontario. Most of the day will likely be dry,
with showers becoming more widespread by the late afternoon and
early evening. The upper shortwave and weak surface low cross
the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning with
the highest rain chances across Central NY.

Likely a brief break in the action for the first half of the day
on Wednesday, but next shortwave pushes through the zonal
westerlies and arrives by Wednesday afternoon. Will have to
watch and see how much destabilization can occur before this
next wave arrives. GFS forecast soundings currently showing
about 500 J/kg of CAPE across Central NY and over 1000 J/kg in
NE PA. Also some decent 0-6km bulk shear around 45 to 50 knots
in NW flow regime, so there could be some potential for severe
storms depending on how much instability is present. One thing
to keep in mind though is confidence remains quite low this
period as models continue to show some differences on timing
and exact track of these waves.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure looks to move into the area for Thursday and
Friday, which will likely lead to dry weather with partly to
mostly sunny skies. Highs Thursday will likely be in the lower
70s to lower 80s, then upper 70s to mid 80s Friday.

The next disturbance to approach the area may bring a slight
chance for some scattered showers Friday night into the first
half of the weekend. Otherwise, temperatures look to be
seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for the terminal period as patches
of mainly mid cloud from today`s heating affect all terminals.
Clouds will diminish this evening and then some more mid to high
clouds will come down later tonight. Again, VFR ceilings and
visibilities expected all terminals.

Mainly northwest to west winds around 10 knots gusting to 20
knots this afternoon. The exception is at KELM where there is a
localized northeast wind which should last a couple hours until
20z when it should back to northwest again. All winds will die
down to less than 10 knots overnight and Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Occasional restrictions possible in some rain
showers.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/DJN/MPK
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DJN/MWG