Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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590
FXUS61 KBGM 231105
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
705 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Some morning showers linger in Northeast Pennsylvania mainly east
of Interstate 81, as well as in Central New York generally
southeast of Interstate 88. However, the responsible front will
continue to move further away, allowing drier air to overtake
the area. High pressure will be in charge for the next few days
with mostly dry weather and slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 AM Update...
Quiet and cooler-than-average weather is taking shape for today
through Wednesday, as drier air moves into the region with
gradually building high pressure.

Front is well beyond the area, yet a stream of moisture and
isentropic lift behind the front will keep some light showers
lingering for a time this morning, mainly east of Interstate 81
in Northeast PA and southeast of Interstate 88 in Central NY.
Also, isolated instability showers could still manage to pop in
early afternoon around Steuben-Yates-Seneca-Schuyler counties.
However, overall drier air will be gradually overtaking the
region, riding in light northwesterly winds. Clouds will
gradually decreasing from west to east, and dewpoints will fall
into the 50s. After days of humidity this will be a pretty
noticeable change. Highs today will be generally 70s.

Clearing will continue tonight with rather chilly lows in the
50s. Our normally coolest radiational cooling valleys could even
manage lower 50s.

At the surface high pressure will continue to take charge
Wednesday, with highs of 70s to near 80. However, aloft we will
actually still have an upper trough swinging through the area.
The surface heating offered from a mostly sunny sky combined
with cool air passing aloft will cause a scattered diurnal
cumulus field to develop. While moisture will be very limited,
there may be just enough of it for isolated showers to be
included in parts of Central New York. Vast majority of
locations will remain dry, however, for an overall pleasant day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday night...Upper level trough axis moves from the
forecast area to western New England as surface ridging occurs
over the area. A dry period with mainly clear skies and lows
generally in the lower to middle 50s.

Thursday...Weak mid level waves in northwest flow along with
diurnal instability will bring a chance for thunderstorms during
the afternoon/early evening. Best chance for thunderstorms will
across the southern tier where 30 POPs will be advertised, just
slight chance north. The far southeast should remain dry. Highs
will range in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Thursday night...Upper level heights start rising with surface
high pressure stretching from New York to Virginia. A mainly
clear night with lows in the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A flat upper level ridge builds over the northeast during the
long term. Temperatures warm during the period as a persistent
southwest flow develops on the back side of high pressure
situated along the east coast. Friday through Saturday night
looks dry but Sunday through Monday will carry chance/slight
chance POPs for thunderstorms as the ridge flattens and mid
level waves possibly initiate convection. A better chance for
thunderstorms occurs on Tuesday as a surface cold front
approaches the region.

Saturday through Monday, high temperatures will range from the
mid 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Abundant low level moisture, trapped behind a departing showery
front, initially caused restrictions overnight. However, rapid
improvement is underway just after dawn. KSYR-KRME-KITH are
already VFR; the other terminals are on their way there as a
light northwesterly wind of around 4-8 knots brings drier air
into the region. This will will lift and scatter clouds into VFR
by mid morning KELM and midday KBGM-KAVP. VFR prevails for
remainder of TAF period, except for likely late night valley fog
development for at least KELM and possibly others. KELM could
get near airport minimums 08Z-12Z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR, but isolated afternoon
showers or storms possible for NY terminals.

Friday and Saturday...VFR other than possible predawn valley
fog at KELM each morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP



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