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000
FXUS61 KBGM 232030
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
430 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the area tonight, before milder air
pushes in Sunday. A cold front will spread light snow and rain
showers across New York and Pennsylvania Sunday night into
Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Residual clouds have rapidly dried up from the Catskills to the
higher terrain of north central NY downwind of Lake Ontario.
With continued insolation, subsidence and low- level dry air
advection all of central NY and northeast PA will become clear
this evening and this will last through the night. Clear skies
here is a rarity this time of year and we will take it!

Some high level moisture advections will bring in mid to high
level clouds across much of central NY and northeast PA Sunday
afternoon ahead of next system to affect region Sunday night to
Monday. With a more southwest flow Sunday and sunshine at least
into the early afternoon, we will see temperatures into the
50s. Therefore we will have a quiet period tonight through
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm update...

A cold front drops southeast through the area Sunday night ahead
of a surface low that tracks east to the mid Atlantic states
Monday. Qpf under a tenth of an inch and snowfall amounts under
an inch. Weak forcing with a limited time of deep moisture.
Lift is not through the dendrite zone which is 10 to 15k ft.
Also keeping the snow amounts down will be the temperatures.
Temperatures start in the 40s ahead of the front Sunday evening
so any showers will start as rain. Temperatures do fall into the
20s in CNY and low to mid 30s Wyoming Valley and Poconos of PA.
In the far south mainly rain with these temperatures. Most of
the accumulating light snow will be late Sunday night. Sped up
the timing of shower exit to Monday morning in south central NY
and midday far south. So with afternoon sunshine bumped
temperatures up a little to mid 30s to mid 40s. This is close to
guidance.

High pressure drops southeast through the Great Lakes to be over
the area Tuesday night. Very dry air is with the high so dry and
mainly clear. Lows Monday and Tuesday nights mostly in the
teens. Highs Tuesday mostly in the 30s. Still below average
temperatures but warmer air in the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be in firm control on Wednesday, bringing
plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures (highs in the
mid 40s to near 50). Lows Wednesday night will likely be in the
mid 20s to near 30. The above mentioned high pressure system
then continues moving east of the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing a southerly flow. At the same time, an upper
level ridge will build in over the region. This will result in
warmer temperatures on Thursday under mostly sunny skies, with
highs likely getting well into the 50s. Lows Thursday night look
to be in the mid 30s to near 40. Friday still looks to be the
warmest day of this period, with highs possibly approaching 60
degrees in spots, with upper 50s expected elsewhere.

Throughout Friday, our next storm system begins to take
shape, likely moving into the Great Lakes region. As a result
some leading rain showers are possible across portions of CNY
late Friday afternoon, then slowly spreading eastward across
the remainder of our area Friday night into Saturday. That being
said, there are some significant timing differences between the
models regarding this system. The 12Z GFS is the quickest,
bringing rain showers late Friday into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF and Canadian are noticeably slower,
holding off much of the rain shower activity until Saturday.

Due to this uncertainty in timing, combined with the fact that
this is still so far out, kept POPs no greater than chance for
Friday night through Saturday. Temperatures will likely remain
mild with lows mostly in the 40s Friday night and highs on
Saturday once again likely in the upper 50s to near 60 in spots.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period with mainly clear skies.
West to northwest winds will run from 15 to 18 knots sustained
with gusts 25 to 30 knots this afternoon into early evening.

Once the sun sets, the convective mixing will cease and there
will be rapid low-level net radiational cooling of the boundary
layer. The effect of this will be to drop the winds dramatically
by 2z or so as an inversion forms from the cooling. With the
pressure gradient aloft still fairly strong we will see low-
level wind shear all terminals for several hours and possibly
through the night. Winds will be from about 290-300 degrees at
35 to 40 knots at 2000 feet AGL with a west to northwest surface
wind 5 to 8 knots. Thus have LLWS all terminals after 2z until
Sunday morning when the convective mixing begins again and the
winds aloft slacken.

We expect west to southwest winds 6 to 10 knots Sunday morning
with some gusts possible to 15-20 knots by early afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon through Sunday night...VFR until MVFR ceilings
form late Sunday night. A few rain or snow showers possible
toward sunrise Monday.

Monday...Any MVFR ceilings lifting through the day with
scattered rain or snow showers ending.

Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN/MWG
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DJN