Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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084
FXUS61 KBGM 100851
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
351 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching storm system will bring rain showers to the area
starting this afternoon, and increasing through the evening.
Drier but breezier conditions will arrive on Monday. A secondary
cold front will push through Monday night, with another round of
light rain showers. High pressure will briefly bring quieter
weather on Wednesday, with more chances for rain arriving later
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
349 AM Update:

Surface high pressure is centered over New England this morning.
Despite light southeasterly flow at the low levels, low level
moisture remains very low across the area, with dewpoints in the
20s extending into Ohio and all across Pennsylvania. Aloft,
southwesterly flow is bringing in plenty of high level moisture,
and the result is thickening high clouds moving in from the
west.

As southerly flow in the low levels increases today, low level
moisture will begin to improve. Meanwhile, a lead shortwave
trough will work into western NY/PA this afternoon, and showers
will gradually reach the surface by mid to late afternoon over
most of the area.

Steadier showers will overspread the area during the evening, as
the main shortwave trough rolls through the area. Showers will
become more scattered in the wake of the trough, after midnight.

Breezy west-southwest winds will prevail Monday, with showers
rapidly diminishing in the morning.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM Update:

An additional shortwave will pivot through the region Monday
night, which will bring a resurgence of scattered rain showers,
especially across Central NY. With lows getting down to the
lower 30s to lower 40s, cannot rule out some wet snowflakes
mixing in across northern Oneida county and possibly some of the
higher terrain of Central NY.

Behind this shortwave and cold front, winds will shift to a
northwesterly direction and 850mb temperatures will fall to
around -7C. This will set the stage for a brief window for
scattered lake effect showers (possibly mixing with snow at the
higher elevations) Tuesday morning for parts of Central NY.
However, with high pressure and drier air quickly moving in
from the west, these showers should quickly end by the
afternoon, resulting in partly to mostly sunny skies by late in
the day. Highs are expected to mainly be in the 40s.

High pressure in control, along with light winds and mostly
clear skies will set the stage for decent radiational cooling
conditions Tuesday night. As a result, lows are expected to be
in the 20s for the majority of the area, and possibly teens in
the usual colder spots.

Upper level ridging will build back in on Wednesday, which will
allow temperatures to rebound after a chilly start to the day.
Highs are expected to be in the mid 40s to near 50, along with
mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM Update:

Forecast uncertainty increases for the Wednesday night through
Thursday timeframe. An area of low pressure will be moving from
the Central U.S. and perhaps through the Great Lakes Region.
However, model guidance varies greatly on how amplified the
trough gets and if high pressure is able to hold on across the
Northeast. As a result, some model guidance brings in
precipitation to the area by Thursday morning, while other
models are significantly later. In fact, there is a possibility
that high pressure pushes any precipitation well to the south
and it misses the Northeast entirely.

If precipitation is able to sneak into the area by late
Wednesday night/Thursday morning, temperatures may be cold
enough for a brief wintry mix, before changing to rain. Felt the
National Blend of Models (NBM) PoPs for this period were a bit
too aggressive, so backed off a bit to slow the onset of
precipitation (if it happens at all).

Beyond Thursday, a persistent west-northwest flow will bring
some scattered showers to parts of Central NY (possibly mixing
with snow at night), but the majority of the area should remain
dry. At the very least, Central NY will see partly sunny to
mostly cloudy skies for Friday and Saturday with the lake effect
clouds, while Northeast PA-Catskills will likely be mostly
sunny.

Temperatures will be on a moderating trend during the long term
with highs likely getting a bit warmer each day. Mainly 40s are
expected for highs on Thursday, but mid 40s to upper 50 are
expected by Friday and especially Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the morning and early
afternoon, though clouds will be on the increase, with bases
slowly lowering through the day. As low level winds shift to
the south and increase ahead of the incoming system, low level
wind shear will develop at a few locations in the predawn hours,
mainly after 09-10Z.

Increasing rain showers this afternoon and evening will bring
restrictions to ceilings and visibility, with conditions varying
between VFR and MVFR in the afternoon, then fuel alt will become
more likely after dark. Can`t rule out brief IFR in higher
elevations after 00Z, but kept this out of the TAFs for the time
being as confidence remains low.

LLWS looks to make a return during the overnight in north-
central NY as low level winds increase, this looks to primarily
impact SYR and RME,

Outlook...

Late Sunday Night...Restrictions likely with steadier rain
showers moving through. IFR possible especially in higher
elevations.

Monday...Conditions mostly improving to VFR, though some lower
ceilings occur Monday night as a secondary cold front moves
through.

Tuesday...Possible lingering lake effect clouds and associated
restrictions early Tuesday in NY, otherwise VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday: Rain showers possible and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DK/MPH