399
FXUS61 KBGM 111737
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
137 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday and
Saturday. A low pressure system will bring more widespread
showers Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will remain quite warm
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
305 AM Update...

An upper level trough slides east this morning as a ridge begins to
build over the eastern half of CONUS. Flow today will be mostly
zonal with multiple weak waves passing through. These waves will
take advantage of warm and muggy conditions and support another
round of pop up showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE values will be at
least 1000 J/kg but 0-6 km bulk shear is weak with max values around
25 kts. While gusty winds and small hail will be possible with any
storms that can develop today, severe storms are not expected. This
lines up with SPC`s thinking as they have removed the Marginal Risk
and instead, blanket the region with General Thunder. PWATs will
only be around 1.5 to 1.7, but a couple of cells may be slow moving
and could lead to localized ponding. WPC has the south-eastern half
of the region in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, which is
reasonable as soils are quite saturated in portions of the region.
Temperatures will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s but may just
reach the low 90s in some valley locations. Dewpoints will be in the
60s and low 70s. Peak heat indices will be below advisory criteria,
though some of the warmer valleys could see heat indices around 95.

The ridge continues to build over the region overnight tonight. Weak
waves will also continue to pass through the region with showers
continuing overnight. Some thunderstorms may be possible as well,
though the environment becomes more stable after sunset. Winds will
be light and skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy which sets
up conditions favorable for fog late tonight into early Saturday
morning. A warm front lifts north and southerly flow will keep
overnight temps quite mild with lows in the 60s, though a few
locations may not drop below 70.

The peak of the ridge will be over the Northeast by the start of
Saturday. Conditions will remain warm and muggy with temperatures
climbing back into the 80s and low 90s and dewpoints will be in the
upper 60s and low 70s. With higher dewpoints expected, heat indices
will be elevated and around advisory criteria for a few hours,
mainly for areas west and along I-81. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible from the late morning through the
evening hours. The environment becomes unstable but shear will be
weak, so strong storms are not expected. WPC has most of the region
in the Day 2 ERO. PWATs will be close to 2 inches which would be
favorable for brief periods of heavy rain. While concerns for flash
flooding are low at this time given the scattered coverage expected,
if areas see rain both today and Saturday, then chances will be
better for localized hydro issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM Update...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will linger around
Saturday night, especially during the evening as convection that
developed earlier in the day gradually diminishes. Warm and
steamy Saturday night with lows in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

As an upper ridge moves off to the east Sunday, with the center
of the ridge axis located over New England, an upper level
trough and surface cold front will begin to approach from the
west. This will lead to a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening.
Plenty of instability will be in place with temperatures Sunday
ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 degrees with dew points
generally in the lower 70s, and MUCAPE above 1500 J/kg, but
0-6km bulk shear values are expected to be pretty low on the
order of 10-20 knots. PWATs however are expected to be high
Sunday into Sunday night anywhere from 1.50 to around 2.00
inches, so there is more of a concern for locally heavy rainfall
from slower- moving storms. Nearly all of the CWA is
highlighted by WPC under a marginal to slight risk for
excessive rainfall from 12z Sunday through 12z Monday. Depending
on how quickly clouds and convection build Sunday, there is the
potential of heat advisories being needed as apparent
temperatures can reach the mid and upper 90s for a few hours in
the valley areas of CNY during the early to mid afternoon. Lows
Sunday night will be in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 AM Update...

There is some uncertainty regarding how quickly the front
pushes east Monday with a strong Bermuda high seeming to slow
down its progression and that of the lagging upper level trough
that will be overhead. This will lead to additional showers and
storms around during the day, again some of which can be slower-
moving with heavy rainfall. It won`t be quite as warm with
Monday a west to northwest flow taking shape with highs from the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures look to rebound quickly
though Tuesday through Thursday with a ridge building in aloft
and the Bermuda high drifting westward reestablishing the very
moist south-southwesterly flow. Most operational and ensemble
guidance has high pressure in control at the surface Tuesdsay
and Wednesday with largely dry conditions each day. Although
there is some timing differences with the next boundary
approaching, it will lead to the chance of showers and storms
returning Thursday. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday
are expected to be back into the mid 80s to low 90s and heat
headlines may be needed midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening
with restrictions possible as pop up showers and thunderstorms
develop. Confidence is low on exact timing and coverage, so
tempo groups were added to AVP, ELM, BGM, and ITH. Brief
restrictions will be possible if a shower/storm passes directly
over a terminal. Most models keep showers south of SYR and RME.

Conditions will dry out by the late evening hours. Light winds
and clearing skies will be favorable for fog at ELM and possibly
BGM during the early morning hours on Saturday. There is some
uncertainty on timing.

Winds will be light and variable throughout this TAF period,
though could be gusty under showers/storms.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR with patchy fog again Sat morning.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms from late Saturday morning
through early evening.

Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated
restrictions.

Tuesday into Wednesday... VFR conditions possible with high
pressure in control.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/ES
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL/ES