326
FXUS61 KBGM 091851
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
251 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air moving in aloft will lead to cooler weather tomorrow
through the weekend as well as frequent chances of showers. Next
week will see a gradual warm up but chances of precipitation
will remain frequent.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

A long wave trough is slowly digging into the region with cold
air advection aloft keeping temperatures on the cooler side this
afternoon compared to recent days. Temperatures were adjusted
up slightly across CNY as there has been some good sunshine
between the clouds but decided to lower temperatures along and
south of the NY/PA border as cirrus and low clouds have really
limited solar heating. Tonight, rain will be moving in from SW
to NE as a surface low slides through the mid Atlantic with an
inverted trough setting up over us with broad lift. Rain will be
steady but light and last through most of the day tomorrow with
QPF amounts ranging from near an inch in the higher elevations
of NEPA to around a 10th of an inch in the Mohawk valley. Friday
night was a little tricky in regards to the low temperature
forecast. A surface high is building in but with the upper level
trough axis basically directly overhead, there will be steeper
lapse rates and decent amount of low level moisture. Forecast
soundings are not quite saturated so there is a chance for some
clearing with light winds and with the cold air aloft already,
radiational cooling could cause temperatures to fall into the
30s if clouds clear overnight. Luckily the dew points will be
pretty high so it will be hard to get any frost and if there is
a frost it wont be damaging.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
355 AM Update

This period will feature rather unsettled, cool and showery weather
much of the time. Model guidance is in good agreement that a series
of shortwaves embedded within a large, broad upper level trough will
rotate through the area over the weekend.

There will be some lingering showers Friday night, with perhaps some
dry time heading into early Saturday as the first shortwave trough
moves off the East Coast by 8 AM Saturday. Close on its heels the
next, more potent upper level wave digs into the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region by midday or early afternoon. This system will
bring renewed chances for showers, especially along and west of I-81
heading into Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, it will be partly to
mostly cloudy all day, with generally light southerly winds under 10
mph expected. It will be cool with lows in the low to mid-40s and
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s...this is 5-8 degrees below
average.

It appears the upper trough axis, along with the mid-level and
surface low will overhead Saturday night. This will keep a good
chance for clouds and showers in the forecast overnight...seasonably
cool with lows in the mid-40s for most locations. The main mid/upper
level low moves into Southern New England on Sunday; but our area
remains in a moist, cyclonic flow regime. This will keep scattered
to numerous pop up showers in the forecast. Any instability looks
very weak/modest...but can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm.
Total rainfall amounts look to stay on the light side from the this
system; mainly between 0.25 to 0.75 inches for the entire weekend.

With 850mb temperatures hovering near +1C and thicknesses under
543dm, highs will struggle to reach the mid-50s to lower 60s Sunday
afternoon...again close to 10 degrees below average. Finally by
Sunday night some brief ridging pushes into the area, bringing dry
weather and partial clearing. Another cool night with lows in the
upper 30s to mid-40s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
355 AM Update

More unsettled, showery weather looks to remain over the area next
week. The first system slides in with showers and a slight chance
for thunderstorms Monday afternoon. There is more uncertainty with
the timing and position of individual waves/disturbances after this.
However, in general upper level troughing remains over the Northeast
US, with scattered to numerous showers continuing each day.
Instability is mainly low, or very low...but cannot rule out a few
stray afternoon or evening thunderstorms each day. Lowered PoPs some
for Wednesday & Thursday, compared to what the latest NBM suggested.
This was again due to differences in how amplified the trough will be
and timing of individual shortwaves. The latest 00z deterministic
ECMWF actually shows upper level ridging and dry/pleasant weather
for next Thursday, the 00z GFS shows another trough and more rain
chances. Overall, there is higher than usual uncertainty and spread
in the model data for the end of the extended forecast period.

Temperatures will be on a slow warming trend, reaching the mid-60s
to low 70s Monday afternoon. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday see
seasonably mild daytime highs, in the upper 60s to mid-70s.
Overnight lows are mainly in the low to mid-50s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cigs are scattering out this afternoon with VFR conditions
expected at all terminals through 0Z tonight. Rain does begin to
move in from the SW and initially there will be enough dry air
to keep conditions VFR through about 6Z. Deeper moisture and
consistent rain moves in after 6Z for ELM, BGM, and AVP with
cigs falling to near IFR. Given the forecast soundings not
completely saturating the lowest 1000 feet decided to only have
BGM fall to IFR cigs due to elevation of terminal. Drier air
north will slow the rains arrival at ITH, SYR and RME. The SE
winds will also help with downsloping at ITH and SYR so IFR is
unlikely and it may be hard to even get MVFR cigs and vis at SYR
but left it in for now.

Outlook...

Friday...Rain and restrictions likely Friday.

Friday night through Monday...Periods of showers with
intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through
the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...AJG