058
FXUS61 KBGM 120544
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
144 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Pop up showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening,
otherwise dry overnight. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected tomorrow along with warmer temperatures. Frontal system
brings more widespread showers Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will
remain quite warm well into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
305 PM Update...

Upper level ridge builds into the region today with a few weak waves
riding along the ridge via southwest flow. This will advect some
moisture into the region with the potential to set off a few
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Severe potential is lower today as parameters are not as
favorable, MLCAPE values are up to 1000 J/Kg, but 0-6 km bulk shear
is weak. Also model soundings show dry air in place which may hinder
shower development at times. Regardless a chance of showers and
thunderstorms are possible with potential for some to contain
gusty winds, therefore SPC keeps our region under General
Thunder. CAMs show showers popping up from the southwest late
afternoon and expanding up into the Southern Tier region of NY.

PWATs will only be around 1.5 to 1.7, but a couple of cells may be
slow moving and could lead to localized ponding. WPC has the south-
eastern half of the region in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall, which is reasonable as soils are quite saturated in
portions of the region. Showers may linger into the evening and
overnight period with mild overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Winds will be light and skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy
which sets up conditions favorable for fog late tonight into early
Saturday morning.

Ridge peaks over our region on Saturday with a similar set up to the
previous day. Southwest flow will advect another shot of moisture
and keep temperatures warm. Highs will climb into the 80s with some
spots in the low 90s. There is potential for Head Advisory criteria
to be reached over the Eastern Finger Lakes region, but
confidence is not high enough as showers could hinder that
outcome. Main concern will be an additional round of showers and
thunderstorms that will move through Saturday afternoon.
Instability parameters are similar to today, CAPE values may
reach 1,200 J/Kg, but 0-6 km shear is weak. Model soundings are
also very dry, therefore confidence is low for strong storms,
but can`t rule out an isolated few. SPC again places our region
in General Thunder. Convection gradually diminishes after sunset
Saturday night with a few lingering showers possible. Overnight
temperatures will be warm with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
110 AM Forecast...

The heavy rain threat will continue into Sunday night and Monday
morning for areas east of the Finger Lakes. Mid and upper level
flow will continue to be SWerly through the overnight hours,
with warm and moist air continuing to move into the region.
Heavy rain parameters remain elevated through the overnight
hours, with PWATs approaching 2in, warm cloud depth around 12k
feet and long, skinny CAPE showing the potential for efficient
heavy rain generation. MBE vectors are also short through the
period, lending confidence to slow moving and back building
storms. The heavy rain threat should end by mid-morning for
areas along and west of I-81 as the trough axis moves across the
area, switching the flow to more westerly and bringing in drier
air. Heavy rain potential will still exist for our eastern
counties into the afternoon hours with daytime heating adding
additional CAPE to allow for continued heavy downpours. Rain
chances should move east of the area by early evening. Highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s.

High pressure will build into the area from the west behind the
departing trough starting late Monday afternoon. The dry air
ridding the northern edge of this high will  moving in from the
WNW Monday night will allow temps to fall into the low to mid
60s Monday night, about 4-5 degrees cooler than the previous
night. Dry conditions remain through Tuesday as high pressure
dominates. The ridge will be transient however, with the ridge
axis moving east of the area by Tuesday morning. This will allow
for SW flow to return and temperatures will climb into the mid
to upper 80s with a few 90s in the valleys of the Twin Tiers.
Dewpoints look to hold in the low to mid 60s, so heat indices
currently are below advisory criteria, but we will monitor this
closely. Tuesday night lows climb back into the mid to upper 60s
as continued SW flow brings warm and moist air into the area
from the SW US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 AM Forecast...

Widespread heat returns Wednesday as temperatures climb into the
upper 80s to low 90s across the region. Dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s will push heat indices into the mid 90s,
especially for valley locations. Heat advisories may be needed
for portions of CNY, especially in the valleys. If planning
outdoor activities for Wed, take precautions and be prepared for
hot, humid weather.

Active weather returns to the area by mid week, but uncertainty
remains as to if precip returns Wed or Thurs. A shortwave may
work its way into the Mid-Atlantic area, which would bring rain
showers and thunderstorms to the Twin Tiers and Catskills
Wed PM, or high pressure sticks around longer and rain does not
return until Thurs afternoon or Fri. Because of the uncertainty,
ensemble blend of NBM PoPs were relied upon which brings slight
to low end chance PoPs to the area Wed, with increasing chances
Thurs PM and Fri PM. Temps look to be around normal, with highs
in the 80s and lows in the 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected this through the period with
restrictions possible as pop up showers and thunderstorms
develop this evening and tonight. Confidence is low on exact
timing and coverage, so at this time, only added to the ELM
forecast and will handle the other sites with amendments if
needed. Brief restrictions can be expected if a shower/storm
passes directly over a terminal.

Light winds and clearing skies will be favorable for fog at ELM,
especially if they see a shower or storm later this evening to
add to low level moisture. Fog is also possible at BGM during
the early morning hours on Saturday, but confidence was too low
to include in the forecast.

Winds will be light and variable throughout this TAF period,
though there could be gusty and erratic winds under
showers/storms.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR with isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms through early evening.

Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated
restrictions.

Tuesday into Wednesday... VFR conditions possible with high
pressure in control.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-055-056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BTL/ES/MPK