482
FXUS64 KBMX 160545
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 802 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024

Winds just above the surface are expected to increase this
evening. This increase will occur near the moisture gradient which
coincides with the moisture convergence zone. This area was
roughly from Auburn and Eufaula, to Livingston and Aliceville.
Therefore, think there will be some increase in coverage over the
southwest third of the area. The overall convergence zone does
slowly move southward with time overnight, eventually leading to
lesser rain chances into Monday. Made some minor adjustments
spatially to pops and and slight upward shift in temperatures.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024

The remnant surface low of what`s left of Francine is currently
spinning across southern Mississippi. An axis of light to moderate
rain has developed across eastern Mississippi and southwestern
Alabama. Thankfully, we`re getting a break from the heavy rains
today, with only light stratiform showers and rains that have
developed thus far. Very strong easterly flow continues at the
surface, with a 1031mb surface ridge centered over New England
that has built southward across the Eastern Seaboard. Isentropic
lift continues across the Deep South with westerly flow aloft,
but isn`t quite as strong as we`ve seen the past couple of days.
Broken to overcast skies will stick around as as result, keeping
temperatures on the mild side in the mid 70s to perhaps lower 80s
in a few spots that see additional peeks of sunshine. PoPs will
remain highest across the southern and southwestern counties,
closest to the surface low.

The overall pattern across the Southeast will become quite
interesting through the day on Monday. The remnant low of Francine
will eventually wash out and retrograde westward by Monday
afternoon. Meanwhile, another surface low just off the coast of
the Carolinas is being monitored for potential tropical
development by NHC. That system is expected to move inland by
Monday afternoon, with much of the southern CONUS within an
overall weakness at 500mb. The system in the Carolinas will then
become the dominant feature, stacked from the surface to the
500mb level by Monday evening while the disturbance left from
Francine will become an open shortwave trough. Easterly flow at
the surface will continue on the west side of the surface low in
the Carolinas, while deeper moisture will remain present close to
the remnant low of Francine over the ArkLaMiss. PoPs will remain
relegated to the southern and western counties as a result, as
drier air arrives across the far eastern and northeast counties.
We should definitely see some sunshine in many locations as highs
top out in the low to mid 80s Monday afternoon.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024

Remnants of Francine will merge with a potential tropical system
moving inland over the Carolinas, resulting in the formation of a
large, cut-off 500 mb trough centered over North Carolina. A
drier airmass will wrap around this system from the north on
Tuesday and persist through Saturday. A stray shower is possible
in our southern counties on Tuesday, but otherwise the forecast is
dry through Saturday.

87/Grantham

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024

Drier weather is on the horizon.

Easterly to northeasterly flow builds into the region Monday night
into Tuesday as the non-tropical low off the Atlantic Coast moves
into the Carolinas. This non-tropical low is highlighted by NHC as
having a 50% chance for development before Tuesday. It is expected
to stay well to our east, putting us on the drier - northerly to
northeasterly flow region. As the overall synoptic pattern
transitions to more of a omega blocking pattern Tuesday through
Friday, we should stay in this northerly flow regime. While we may
see some lower chances for rain showers across the south on Tuesday,
the highest rain chances should stay to our south. We`ll then trend
to mostly rain-free conditions through the end of the week and into
the early part of next weekend.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024

Multiple cloud decks across the area tonight, but cigs are all
above 3kft at forecast terminals. Localized MVFR cigs are confined
to southeastern Central Alabama near KDYA and KMEI to start the
period, and expect this deck to expand eastward with a period of
MVFR heights at TCL and MGM Monday morning.

Drier air will work into the area from the northeast, and
suppress shower development to the west and south. Chances of rain
are too low at any terminal to include at this time, but
depending on coverage trends, might need to add SHRA to TCL or MGM
for daylight hours on Monday. Cigs will remain predominantly VFR,
with easterly winds at 8-10kts through the day. Winds diminish
Monday evening.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will continue a downward trend on Monday and become
very limited on Tuesday. 20 foot winds will be from the east at 6
to 10 mph on Monday, with transition toward northerly flow
expected Tuesday afternoon. RH values will remain above 40
percent through midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  59  85  59 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    83  61  85  62 /  10   0   0  10
Birmingham  81  64  85  63 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  82  65  86  63 /  20  10  10   0
Calera      81  64  86  65 /  20  10  10   0
Auburn      79  64  84  65 /  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  81  66  87  65 /  20  10  20  10
Troy        80  65  85  65 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...14