Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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025 FXUS64 KBMX 140829 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 329 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024 The remnant low of Francine continues to rotate over the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, slightly drifting to the east, but with its center remaining to the west of Central Alabama. A convergent low level moisture axis oriented north to south this morning will continue to provide focus for showers. This axis is expected to pivot northeastward today, with widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms across much of the area, especially across the north and east. As the upper low drifts back westward tonight and tomorrow, the axis will remain over the area, allowing for continued showers and storms. Rainfall amounts today through Sunday could vary from 0.5inch to as much as 4 inches, depending on where rain bands and training set up. Opted to leave counties in the Flood Watch given the uncertainty on the locations of these bands, and extended the watch through tonight. As the upper low weakens, winds aloft have also weakened. With less shear and limited surface instability, chances of severe storms or tornadoes are too low to include in the forecast. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024 Monday through Friday. The rainy pattern will continue Sunday night through Monday across Central AL as the remnants of Francine persist for yet another day. The trough deepens through the Gulf States Monday night into Tuesday and will push a boundary southward towards the coast. Drier air will build in behind this boundary Tuesday through Wednesday. Then, for the second half of the week, a quasi-omega block pattern sets up with a deep trough over the west coast and an upper low over the Coastal Mid-Atlantic region. This will lead to mostly rain-free conditions Wednesday through Friday across Central AL as drier northerly flow persists on the back side of the low to our east. Temperatures will gradually warm into the mid to upper 80s by the end of the week with lows in the 60s. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024 A stalled frontal boundary remains over Central Alabama, oriented north to south. Along this boundary, showers will continue to move south to north through the morning hours. This moisture axis will pivot later today, with widespread showers and thunderstorms impacting much of the area, especially terminals across the north and east. A mixture of MVFR and IFR cigs will not improve much through the period. Southeasterly winds at 6-10kts through the day will diminish this evening to 3-6kts. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... High rain chances will continue across the area today through early next week. Winds will be out the east for much of the day and could be gusty at times, especially in higher terrain areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 76 65 78 63 / 80 70 60 40 Anniston 77 68 78 66 / 80 70 60 40 Birmingham 77 68 76 66 / 80 70 70 50 Tuscaloosa 81 68 78 66 / 50 50 80 60 Calera 79 69 77 68 / 80 60 70 60 Auburn 78 68 77 66 / 80 70 60 50 Montgomery 82 70 79 68 / 60 50 70 60 Troy 82 68 78 66 / 60 50 60 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Jefferson- Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....25/Owen AVIATION...14