Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
935
FNUS75 KBOU 071038
FWSBOU
Spot Forecast for Forsythe II - Unit 44...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
438 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Warm, above normal temperatures continue today. Moisture and
instability increase toward the afternoon, increasing cloud cover
and shower/thunderstorm chances. Coverage will be scattered with
low chances for any wetting rain. Passing/nearby storms may
contain gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph. Most of the increase in
moisture will be in the mid-levels, keeping the surface dry with
relative humidity values in the 18-25 percent range in the
afternoon. Overnight, relative humidity values recover to 55-60
percent.
Saturday will be cooler with more moisture. Shower and
thunderstorm chances become likely in the afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent) until 1000, then
partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 1200, then
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 1200 until
1400, then chance of showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................7 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 3 until 1400, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph late
in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL until 1000, then 5200 ft AGL until
1100, then 10100 ft AGL until 1700, then 5800
ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 18 to 26 mph until 1100, then 24 to 29
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then fair until 1000, then
very good until 1100, then excellent until
1700, then very good.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12 14 29 47 63 63 66 66 67 67
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 40 40
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4
Temp............63 70 74 77 79 80 81 79 78 77
RH..............39 32 27 25 22 21 20 22 24 25
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..8 8 9 10 12 12 12 13 13 12
20 FT wind gust.13 13 15 16 18 18 18 21 21 18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.8 5.2 8.7 11 12 9.6 9.4 8.6 5.8
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.18 23 26 28 28 28 28 24 26 25
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18 56 121 208 261 275 230 197 197 128
SmokeDispersion.P F VG E E E E E E VG
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 0200, then
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms until 2100. Chance of rain
showers until 2400. Slight chance of
thunderstorms after 2100 until 2400.
CWR.................12 percent decreasing to 2 percent overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 13 mph until 2400, then around
5 mph until 0100, then west around 5 mph until
0500, then variable up to 5 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms until
2100Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms after 2100 until 2400.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after
2000.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph until 0300. Light after 0500.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1900. Poor after 0500.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73 72 68 68 67 63 59 51 45 40 39 40
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............4 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............74 71 66 63 61 60 59 58 56 55 55 54
RH..............30 35 42 46 51 53 55 57 59 62 62 62
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..10 10 12 12 9 8 5 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.16 16 18 18 15 13 7 6 6 6 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 3.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.W NW W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.20 17 17 17 14 15 13 12 12 9 8 7
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..89 46 13 11 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4
SmokeDispersion.G F P P P P P P P P P P
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 1000, then
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers and thunderstorms until 1200, then
rain showers with thunderstorms likely.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 54 percent in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 2 until 1200, then 4 until
1500, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 1000, then east 5 to
12 mph until 1600, then northeast around 8 mph
until 1700, then north around 6 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
0900 until 1500Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms after 1500.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0700. 4600 ft AGL after
1200.
Transport winds.....Light winds until 0700. West 9 to 15 mph after
0900.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1200, then fair.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47 46 44 43 52 58 85 85 85 85 85 85
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 50 50 50 50 50 50
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 80 80 80 80 80 80
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 4 5 5 5
Temp............54 57 62 67 69 71 71 72 73 73 72 71
RH..............61 57 52 45 44 42 42 44 43 46 44 44
20 FT wind dir..W N E E E E E E E E NE N
20 FT wind spd..1 0 2 3 6 6 8 7 8 8 8 6
20 FT wind gust.3 3 3 7 7 9 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.5
Transp wind dir.W W W SW SW W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.7 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 14 14 15
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 8 12 16 24 33 41 44 47 49 47 45
SmokeDispersion.P P P P P P F F F F F F
$$
Forecaster...Mensch
Requested by...Ed LeBlanc
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414199.17/BOU
.DELDT 06/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Edward.leblanc@usda.gov