662
FXUS61 KBUF 021006
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
606 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening area of low pressure will bring an increase in clouds
and showers into Western New York today. This activity will diminish
across the Finger Lakes region this evening, leaving behind some
areas of low clouds and fog across portions of Western New York.
Cooler today across Western New York, but for the North Country
where some filtered sunshine is possible along with dry
conditions, afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees warmer
than yesterday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure this morning over eastern Michigan will weaken
through the day as a lead upper level shortwave trough outraces
the surface feature. Regional radars and surface observations
display a bit of virga out ahead of a broken area of showers
which are nearing the eastern Lake Erie waters this morning.

Showers will enter WNY through the morning hours. Limited
instability with MU CAPE values just a few hundred J/KG, so have
removed thunder from the forecast, though an isolated lightning
strike will be possible later today. Height falls and lift ahead of
the shortwave trough will support these showers moving into the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region by midday.

Thinner moisture profiles east of Lake Ontario will possibly allow
for some filtered sunshine. Though today will be cooler by several
degrees under these thickening clouds for WNY, the filtered sunshine
east of Lake Ontario will allow for today to actually be a degree or
two warmer for the North Country.

Showers will fizzle out this evening near the Genesee Valley and
Finger Lakes region. We will remain saturated in the lower levels
such that a very weak pressure gradient and light winds will allow
for low clouds and areas of fog to form...especially for those areas
that recently received rainfall. Fog could set in for the hills of
SW NYS by evening. Lows tonight will range through the mid 50s to
around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak mid-level ridge will build across the region Monday and
Tuesday, while surface high pressure centered across eastern Canada
ridges back into our region. Each day limited diurnal instability
will develop which may produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm,
but the ridging should suppress most if not all convection.
Temperatures will be above normal, and with dew points creeping into
the lower 60s it will `feel` like summer. Tuesday will be the warmer
of the two days with highs in the 80s.

Ridging surface and aloft will shift east across New England Tuesday
night, while a deepening upper level trough will approach the region
from the west. This will bring a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm late Tuesday night. Otherwise it will be rather
humid and muggy with lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A closed upper level low will move across the Great Lakes region
during the period. This will establish a wet pattern with a cooling
trend for the long term period.

Temperatures will start off well above normal on Wednesday, with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However 00Z model guidance
pushes a warm frontal segment across the area late Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Convection along this front will have the potential
to produce locally heavy downpours since the warm and moist air mass
will feature PWAT values around 1.75 inches. This feature has the
best chance to produce widespread precipitation, supporting likely
PoPs with its passage.

After this, forecast confidence diminishes since it will depend on
the position of the upper low and subtle embedded shortwaves which
are difficult to resolve at this timeframe. In general there will be
a persistent risk of showers/isolated thunderstorms which will be
maximized during the afternoon hours corresponding to peak daytime
heating. However, there also will be plenty of rain-free time
between shortwaves and most of the nighttime. As the upper low
settles near or across the region, temperatures will become cooler,
but even so daytime highs Friday and Saturday will only be slightly
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions start the TAF cycle,
but a weakening area of low pressure will spread an increase in
clouds, and later showers across Western New York. Showers will
reach the western TAF sites through the morning hours, and
later push their way into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes
region. Lift is marginal, with a period of showers that will at
times lower visibility and ceiling heights into MVFR flight
range.

KART and areas east of Lake Ontario may just stay dry through this
period, with VFR flight conditions.

This evening shower activity will diminish...last across the Finger
Lakes region. The lower atmosphere will remain saturated and with
weak pressure gradient and light winds, areas of fog and lowering
ceiling heights are expected. LIFR is likely for the hilltops of the
Southern Tier (KJHW) by early evening, with IFR or low end MVFR
expected for KBUF/KIAG/KROC overnight.

Less moisture east of Lake Ontario may leave KART and surrounding
area VFR through the night.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.
Thursday...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will weaken as it passes across the Lower Great Lakes
today. Weak pressure gradient into the start of the work week will
maintain light winds and minimal waves into mid-week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel/JJR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas