689
FXUS64 KCRP 202258
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
558 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The center of Alberto has dissipated over inland Mexico this
afternoon. Across the area, plentiful moisture in association to
this system continues to lead to scattered showers with some
isolated embedded thunderstorms. Most of the rain has transitioned
into western portions of the CWA, though a few showers have
continued to develop over the coastal waters. A low to medium chance
of showers and storms will remain in the forecast through Friday
followed by drier conditions into Friday night as ridging aloft
begins to take a hold from the east.

Although rainfall accumulations should generally stay below an inch
through the period, localized flooding from the rainfall may
continue through tomorrow along portions of the Coastal Bend as some
areas have already seen between 7-11" of rain over the past 48
hours. The threat of coastal flooding remains really high through
the high tide cycles tonight and Friday, with another round of 2 to
almost 4 feet inundation possible along area beaches. Wave heights
will be slow to subside, which may result in continuous hazardous
marine conditions and a slow return of the tides to normal levels.
The risk for rip currents also remains High through Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Key Messages:

- Potential disturbance in the Gulf this weekend

- Dangerous heat returns early next week

A broad area of low pressure is forecasted to form in the Gulf by
Saturday. NHC has a 50% chance of development into a tropical system
over the next 7 days for this disturbance. We will continue to
monitor this system over the next few days for potential
development, so be sure to check back for future updates.

Similar conditions to earlier this week can be expected as we head
into this weekend. The presence of left over moisture and energy
from Alberto will give way to showers and thunderstorms that will be
isolated to scattered in nature. They will generally take place
during the day and generally subsiding overnight. This could
potentially add a couple of inches on top of our rainfall totals for
this event due to the copious amounts of moisture available (2.3-2.5
inch PWATS). As Alberto fully dissipates precipitation chances will
generally decrease. A ridge of high pressure will build over the
area early next week, but a low chance will still exist through the
end of the week likely due to the arrival of the sea breeze each
day. Unfortunately, with high pressure overhead, expect the threat
for dangerous heat conditions to return. Heat index values will be
around 110-114 through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across the region.
However, brief IFR ceilings/vis will be possible with any passing
shower or thunderstorm. Showers and storms will continue through
the next several hours. Isolated activity may continue through
the night but left out a mention of VCTS, generally after
midnight, as confidence is too low. Breezy winds will gradually weaken through
the evening hours. Brief IFR ceilings may be possible at
ALI/COT/LRD around sunrise. Gusty east-southeasterly winds return
through the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through late tonight for
the bays, and through early Friday morning across the Gulf
waters. The seas will be slow to subside, and may require the
Advisory to be extended. Scattered showers will remain in the
forecast through the weekend. Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions are possible this weekend as seas continue to subside.
Onshore flow becomes more weak to moderate by early next week and
remains at these levels through at least mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  90  77  90 /  50  40  30  50
Victoria          75  89  73  92 /  30  50  10  20
Laredo            77  91  75  91 /  50  50  20  50
Alice             76  91  74  92 /  40  40  20  50
Rockport          81  92  80  92 /  50  40  30  40
Cotulla           77  93  76  95 /  30  30  10  20
Kingsville        77  91  75  90 /  50  40  30  60
Navy Corpus       82  89  82  90 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ245-342>345-
     347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...TC/95