527
FXUS61 KCTP 011507
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1107 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Splendid start to June with plenty of sunshine and low humidity
*Becoming cloudy on Sunday with some showers into Sunday night
*Trending warmer and more humid Mon-Tue; rain most likely Wed-Thu

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A very pleasant and comfortable start to the weekend/first day
of June and meteorological Summer with plenty of sunshine,
seasonably warm temperatures, and low humidity. After another
relatively cool start, expect another large diurnal swing with
max temps rebounding +30 to +40 degrees from AM lows into the
75-85F range (0 to +5F above June 1 climo). Not as cool tonight
with increasing clouds and min temps in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Latest HREF indicates a weak sfc low moving into eastern Ohio
late Sunday with an ill-defined warm front extending into
southern PA.

This will result in lowering/thickening cloud bases and a
several to 8 hour period Sunday afternoon into Sunday night when
showers will become fairly numerous acrs primarily Western and
Southern PA with lower POPS of 40-50 percent across Northern PA.

Cloud cover and an associated lack of instability in the models
indicates thunderstorms are unlikely.

EFS max temps for Sunday are mainly in the 70s. However, later
shifts may have to dial back the temps IF the onset time of the
rain is sooner.

Previous...

Latest 2m temp ensemble plumes are widely diverging, with most
members cooler than the current forecast. Ensemble mean qpf
suggests most likely rainfall Sunday PM of <0.20 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Passage of the shortwave should result in drier weather Monday.
However, the combination of a lingering frontal boundary south
of PA and high pressure to the north could result in persistent low
clouds, especially over Southern PA.

Medium range guidance points to fair and warm weather Tuesday,
with ridging at the surface and aloft over PA. Falling heights
and surging pwats ahead of a deepening upper level trough over
the Grt Lks will result in showery weather Wednesday and
Thursday. At the surface, the latest GEFS and EC both indicate
an occluded front will traverse Central PA Thu PM, as a triple
point low passes south of the area. This scenario favors
relatively stable air over the forecast area with a limited risk
of severe weather. Ensemble plumes suggest most likely areal
average rainfall Wed-Thu between 0.5 and 1 inch.

Latest GEFS and EPS indicate drier weather Friday, as the low
level jet/plume of highest pwats shift east of PA with the
exiting cold/occluded front. However, scattered, diurnally-
driven showers appear possible, especially over the NW Mtns,
associated with the deep upper trough/closed low parked over
the Grt Lks.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Just a few high clouds at sunrise here at the office. Another
nice day shaping up.

Earlier discussion below.

High pressure over the region today will keep light winds and
clear skies across the area into this evening. The airmass is
too dry to see fog early today.

Clouds will be on the increase by early Sunday morning across
the far west, and later in the morning across eastern areas.

Conditions will lower by 12Z Sunday across the far west, and
later in the day across the Susquehanna Valley.

Outlook...

Sun...PM Sct showers and thunderstorms

Mon...Patchy AM fog, slight chance of PM t-storms.

Tue-Wed...Showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings

Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May
 T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring

Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May
4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring

Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May
2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring

Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May
Warmest; 21st wettest Spring

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl