869
FXUS63 KDDC 092258
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
558 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coolest temperatures over the next 7 days will be Monday
  and Tuesday. As a result the start of the work week will be
  pleasant for outdoor plans.

- Confidence is improving (70%) for highs late week to be
  around 100 degrees. Heat index reading of 100 to 105 possible,
  especially on Thursday.

- The chance for thunderstorms return next weekend (30-50%
  chance).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Ensembles today are in good agreement with a cool dome of high
pressure building across the Central Plains over the next 24
hours. This cool and drier air will result in a nice start to
the upcoming work week. If you have any outdoor plans, this is
the time to get them done because summer temperatures will be
returning mid to late week.

For Monday and Tuesday, we will stay close to the latest
guidance. Given the small spread (<5F) in guidance for these
days, this leads to higher than normal confidence in the
forecast early in the workweek. Also, with the recent rains, we
may not see as quick of a warm-up as we saw last week, given
that much of the heating will go into evapotranspiration. This
recent rainfall will also add to the humidity, which will yield
higher heat index values. This will be noticeable over the next
couple of days but may play an important role later in the week
as temperatures rebound back into the upper 90s to around 100
degrees. Although most of southwest Kansas will be rain
free...for extreme southwest Kansas (near the Oklahoma border
and west of Liberal), we will be monitoring the chance for a few
showers late Tonight and early Monday. The best chance for rain
on Monday will stay south the Oklahoma border, where better
moisture and lift will be located north of a surface boundary
that will be located over the Panhandle of Texas.

On Tuesday an upper level trough embedded in northerly flow
will cross the Central Plains bringing improving mid level
moisture and lift. This will result in increasing clouds and a
slight chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms, This
further supports in keeping temperatures on the cool side
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The main item of interest in the upcoming work week is the warm
up expected mid to late week as an upper level ridge
strengthens and builds east across the Rockies and into the
western high plains. As this upper ridge begins to approach from
the west during the work week the 850mb temperatures will warm
through the 20s, and during the last half of the work week, all
the mean ensemble 850mb temperatures ranged from the upper 20s
to around 30C at 7 PM each evening (Wednesday evening through
Friday evening). The warmest 850mb temperatures are forecast for
Thursday, and this time frame also shows run-to-run consistency
based on the past 4 ensemble runs. Additionally, it is
interesting to note that the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index,
ending at 00Z Friday, is now showing values of 0.5 to 0.6.
Although not a very strong signal for an extreme event, the
increasing trend in these numbers over the past few days
suggests that as we head towards the end of the work week, we
might want to trend towards the warmer, 75th percentile in
guidance. Another indicator that temperatures will be on the
warmer side is that there is now a 70% chance that high
temperatures across parts of southwest Kansas will be at or
above 100 degrees. Now recall earlier about rainfall and
possible humidity issues that will be present across southwest
Kansas this upcoming work week, taking this into account, there
is the potential for heat index values to range from 100 to 105.
Now is the time to prepare for these hot temperatures.

As we head into next weekend we will start monitoring our next
upper level trough as it crosses the southwest United States.
The hot air over southwest Kansas will shift eastward, and as
this next upper trough approaches southwest Kansas, several days
of late day/overnight thunderstorms will return.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Wind will pick up after 15Z to 10-15 kts with gusts at 20-25
kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro