Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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055 FXUS63 KDDC 061652 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1152 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Return to thunderstorm chances early Friday morning with some severe weather potential early in the day, mainly southern areas closer to the Oklahoma line. - Multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity likely from Friday morning through Sunday, however timing and track of individual thunderstorm system is still very uncertain. - Much of next week looks dry as high pressure builds in and much more stable air mass in place && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The latest surface analysis showed low 60 s dewpoints across the area in all but the column of westernmost counties. A cold front was straddled across northwest and north central Kansas and approaching I-70 while 2 am temperatures across the Dodge City forecast area were largely in the low 70s. Satellite indicates clear sky across the region while a few narrow hints of low clouds were trying to develop around Hays into central Kansas along the cold front. Todays forecast will be influenced by the front moving south of the DDC area and becoming an afternoon focus for thunderstorms in western Oklahoma and the TX panhandle. Southwest Kansas will remain dry, albeit relatively humid across the southern counties where temps this afternoon will push toward 90 degrees with dew points near 60. The stationary boundary is forecast to lift back north as a warm front by the morning hours on Friday, resulting in low pops (20%) returning after midnight to the western counties and east of highway 283 in the afternoon hours Friday. Deep shear is marginal, but 0-3km SRH increases to the over 200 m2/s2 ahead of the dryline (most of the areas east of highway 23 and south of K-96. That is coupled with a broad axis of 1750-2000 MUCAPE between the highway 83 and 183 corridors. Categorical outlooks from SPC increase the coverage north of I-70, which is the area under more influence from the mid level jet and more prone to MCS/organized severe activity. The rest of the DDC area is in about a 5% risk areas of large hail, damaging wind. Excessive rainfall risk Friday is focused generally east of a Garden City to Dodge City and Ashland line. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Intermittent wet periods area still possible heading through the weekend into the the early part of the week. The upper pattern will still probably have the mid level jet just to our north and models seemingly support MCS activity late Saturday. Specifically, the ECMWF and GEFs 24 hour QPF multiple rind trends have supported a wet solution with every ensemble mean so far this week favoring the northern half of the area. A signal for even higher rain amounts with convection are showing up farther south (LBL). Deterministic models suggest no precipitation at all around Hays and best rain or severe chances across the OK/KS line and the western counties. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A cold front resulted in northeast winds at the onset of this TAF period, averaging 18 to 22 knots sustained at GCK, DDC, and HYS. Winds will gradually decrease in speed through the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. By early evening, easterly winds will range 7 to 10 knots, remaining at that speed and direction much of the night. We expect overnight showers and widely scattered thunderstorms to develop in the 09-14Z time frame across portions of southwest Kansas, however the probability of impact at specific terminals is still too low (30% or less) to include in any of the TAFs for this issuance, however following synoptic TAFs may be including mention of thunder at any or all of LBL, GCK, DDC terminals if confidence increases as we get closer to that time frame. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Umscheid