Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
695 FXUS63 KDDC 251700 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...Updated Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected southeast of Dodge City Saturday evening. Only one or two storms are expected, but localized high end severe weather is possible. - Strong southwest winds and blowing dust west of US 283 Saturday afternoon. - Sunday and Monday will be dry, with rain chances returning Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...Significant/High-End Severe Weather Possible Southeast of Dodge City Saturday Evening... Midday surface analysis showed strong south to southeast winds across SW KS, gusting near 40 mph, and these are expected to continue to strengthen this afternoon. Winds will trend more SWly through the afternoon as a dryline begins to establish over the eastern zones, east of Dodge City. For this afternoon, increased winds to the 90%ile of the NBM, and added areas of blowing dust west of US 283. Some gusts near 50 mph are expected. Quality moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is clearly delayed, with the 60 isodrosotherm just near I-40 (AMA-OKC) as of late morning. Moisture advection will only increase with time through 7 pm, focusing into the southeast zones (southeast of Ashland-Larned line). It is in these southeast zones where supercell development is expected, as supported by 12z NAM, RRFS, ARW, HRRR. It is quite possible any convective initiation in Kansas will wait until about 7 pm, which would allow moisture several more hours to establish across south central Kansas in the pre-convective warm sector. Indeed, model consensus from the NBM surges dewpoints in the 65-68 range across Pratt/Barber counties. If a discrete supercell can establish and mature in this vicinity 7-10 pm this evening, high-end tornado/hail potential will exist in a highly unstable, highly sheared environment. But this potential will be localized, and focused southeast of an Ashland-Larned line, and perhaps only Pratt to Medicine Lodge. Removed all pops west of US 283, and added severe wording to the grids and forecast for the eastern zones. Temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s by 4 pm, especially just behind the sharpening dryline. Clear and quiet but breezy tonight, with strong subsidence expected behind the surface low moving into central Kansas around sunrise. As such, SWly winds at sunset will trend NWly and remain elevated/gusty through sunrise. Sunrise Sunday temperatures near normal for late May, in the 50s. Sunday will be sunny, windy and still warm, with sinking air behind the departing shortwave trough. Increased NWly wind/wind gust grids to the higher guidance (12z MAV/90%ile NBM) averaging 20-30 mph. Models show a net cooling of 5-7C at 850 mb Sunday versus Saturday, but this modest cold advection will easily be masked by dry NWly downslope compression. Where this downslope is maximized down the terrain, highs near 90 are expected in the southeast zones, while areas along I-70 will be restricted to near 80, with a high near 86 at DDC. Winds will weaken to light and variable under a clear sky Sunday night and early Monday, supporting stronger radiational cooling, and minimum temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles agree weak upper level ridging will begin to take form over the western CONUS, and move slowly east through Tuesday. This pattern will support dry, warm conditions across the central plains, with afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation chances return Tuesday evening through the end of the long term period as weak vorticity lobes crest the upper level ridge Wednesday and Thursday, followed by an approaching upper level trough on Friday. The GEFS is the most bullish in terms of QPF, with probability of QPF > 0.1" at or above 50-60% through Friday. While the ECMWF EPS is notably quieter, the probability of QPF > 0.1" still reaches the 50-70% range on a few occasions, mainly Wednesday evening and Thursday evening. This more active pattern will also be associated with temperatures near or just below normal for most areas, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along and east of US-83. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1036 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. Intense S/SW winds are expected at all airports this afternoon through 00z Sun, gusting 35-37 kts. Areas of blowing dust may limit visibility locally near GCK/LBL/DDC. Any thunderstorms Saturday evening are expected to remain east of the airports, with no mentions in this TAF issuance. SW winds will subside some, but remain elevated and gusty, at sunset, then trend elevated NWly behind a surface low expected to be in central Kansas at 12z Sun. After 15z Sun, VFR/SKC will continue, with strong NW winds gusting 30-32 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Turner